Pawlenty claims 2nd in Hotline’s 2012 ‘presidential power rankings’

With just over 14 months remaining before the Iowa Caucus, National Journal’s The Hotline has released its Presidential Power Rankings Tuesday morning, assessing the viability of 15 Republicans who might mount bids to become their party’s representative in the race against President Barack Obama.

The list ranks Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty as the second leading contender, far above his placement in most early 2012 opinion polls. Hotline cites his “executive experience and conservative credentials,” as reasons to believe Pawlenty is the real deal, but wonders if the stereotype of Minnesota nice might be true in this case, harming his ability to appear aggressive enough to run an effective presidential primary campaign.

The Hotline breaks the potential candidates down into four tiers that, rather than revealing the strength of each candidate, indicate what sections of the Republican base Hotline believes will play the most prominent role in the selecting the nominee.

The publication essentially dismisses the 2010 uprising of the tea party movement as a force in Republican primaries, with “The Tea Party Tier” at the bottom of the list. Hotline gives most weight to the traditional-style candidates, known as “The A-List Tier.”

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney sits atop this pack, followed by Pawlenty, U.S. Sen. John Thune (N.D.) and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour. In explaining its high rating of Romney, Hotline points to his strengths in context of previous primary elections:

The GOP has a history of nominating the person who has stood in line, and after finishing second behind John McCain in 2008, Romney is now that person. He’s got the necessary infrastructure, fundraising ability, and intangibles to be the undisputed front-runner, but how convincingly he answers nagging questions about his individual mandate in Commonwealth Care will determine how long he keeps the top spot.

That last point is not just a distraction Romney can brush off on the campaign trail. His passage of health-care reform during his tenure in Massachusetts has already become a lightning rod for his potential opponents. The legislation is remarkably similar to the Affordable Care Act passed by Congress in 2010, with the individual mandate especially toxic among today’s Republican base voters.

On Fox News last night, Texas Gov. Rick Perry — himself ranked 11th on Hotline’s list — said that Romney would need to repudiate the Massachusetts plan if he is going to enter the 2012 field. And President Obama — likely viewing Romney as one of his greatest threats toward reelection for a second term — has frequently targeted Romney in public remarks on the health-care reform bill as a way of defusing his vulnerability in a Republican primary.

Similar problems face the remaining A-Tier candidates in Hotline’s list. Thune voted for the Troubled Asset Relief Program in 2008,  a decision Hotline says Thune has “an explanation for which he’s already rehearsing.” But TARP is up there alongside health care in the conservative base’s litmus test for vetting candidates. Support for the banking bill toppled Republican Sen. Bob Bennett of Utah during his primary and has drawn conservatives’ ire for numerous other Republicans. And few politicians carry the establishment label quite like Barbour, a former lobbyist and chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Though they’re termed the “The Fox News Tier,” the second class of candidates in Hotline’s rankings really represent the standard bearers of the tea party movement. Ranking from fourth to eighth are former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Indiana Rep. Mike Pence.

While Hotline ranks its first four candidates primarily on their similarities to past primary winners, everyone in the second tier is described in the terms that truly matter in running primary campaigns: the way voters receive them. Huckabee is a “charismatic man in the field.” Gingrich is “greeted like a rock star at every GOP rally he attends.” They note but do not give much weight to Pence’s victory in the Value Voters Summit straw poll, a key indication that the Indiana representative draws significant support from an important element of the Republican base.

As the name for this tier implies, all four are major figures appear regularly on Fox News, which has become one of the prime avenues for Republicans to reach the base. And though many tea party favorites such as Christine O’Donnell and Ken Buck ended up losing their general election campaigns, one of the main lessons of the 2010 cycle was the outsized power held by conservative activists in Republican primaries, a role likely to continue during the presidential nomination selection process. Increased enthusiasm for a candidate in the grassroots leads to excessive media coverage (see the endless discussion for any of Sarah Palin’s endorsements) and significant infusions of campaign funds (tea party favorite Sharron Angle’s $21 million haul).

As Slate’s Dave Weigel noted today, Romney may perform well in the early primary polls, but he largely serves as a placeholder, or traditional candidate, with significantly lower enthusiasm and loyalty than the candidates popular among the party’s base. The level of support for him or Pawlenty will likely vary significantly between now and February 2012, but the die-hard supporters of Sarah Palin are unlikely to waver in their allegiance.

With over a year to go until the first actual election in the nomination process, there is still plenty of time for political dynamics to shift. At this point 14 months ago, the tea party was still a nascent concept with little organizational power. But the current direction of political dynamics after the 2010 elections indicate that these voters will play a prominent role in selecting the Republicans’ 2012 candidate.

Read Hotline’s post for their rankings of candidates 9-15 and a description of each candidates strengths and weaknesses.