One Week Later, A Look at the Senate Race

Newly-elected Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar (D) finished her orientation this morning with a bi-partisan breakfast, an appropriate way to conclude a campaign that likely managed to draw in so many Republican votes, as well as a strong DFL base.

more insideHer victory over Republican Mark Kennedy amazed many who considered Minnesota to be the best chance for the GOP to pick up a seat in the country.  Instead, she won with  nearly 60% of the vote to Kennedy’s 38%.  But was this mainly a result of the Democratic wave that brought so many progressives into office, or were other factors involved?

Perhaps the greatest factor in Klobuchar’s win was the fact that there were so many challengers to the DFL nomination.  In the beginning there was not only Klobuchar, Patty Wetterling, who ran for Senate before dropping out and changing to the Sixth District, and Ford Bell, who pressed his challenge long past the endorsement process but did not proceed onto the primary, but also the short-lived challenges of Tom Rukavina, Mark Rotenburg, and the ghostly “is he or isn’t he” presence of Mike Ciresi. This cavalcade of candidates forced Klobuchar to not only begin battling early, but also enhanced her status as a candidate as each one left the ring.

One the other hand, Mark Kennedy received very little competition from other Republican candidates.  Former Senator Rod Grams gave a short pursuit of the seat before being coaxed out of the senate race and eventually into an unsuccessful run at Congressman Oberstarr’s position in the 8th.  Harold Shudlick put up even less fight, with a speech in front of a Republican State Convention so small they may not have even reached quorum.  The lack of challenge meant that until the primary was finished, Kennedy had no chance to hone his message in a more combative atmosphere.

Although Kennedy had significant money in his war chest, he did not appear to benefit from the big names that brought him that cash.  The Bushes, Vice President Cheney, and the other key Republican names carried a stigma that the candidate was never able to shake, regardless of his attempts to claim his independence.  In addition, there was a confusion of message when Kennedy brought in big Republican names in to stump while calling for a change in Washington.

Did campaign commercials help or hurt either candidate?  It’s difficult to tell.  Kennedy did put up the first negative campaign ad, but as he was consistently trailing Klobuchar in every poll at that point it only made sense for him to do so as the “challenger.”  But in retrospect, Kennedy’s commercials seem less negative that they could have been considering the reputation of the advertising firm, and the viciousness of other Republican attack ads in battleground states like Tennessee and Virginia. 

However, all of these factors were at play in Klobuchar’s significant Senate win, making Amy Klobuchar Minnesota’s first female Senator, and leaving the MNGOP poised in defensive mode for 2008.