Pawlenty ranked second in Iowa 2012 GOP Power Rankings

In the lead-up to Iowa’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses, our sister site in Iowa enlists local journalists, academics, political consultants and pundits to help take the pulse, albeit unscientifically, about how various candidates are perceived in the Hawkeye State. In its first edition of the 2012 cycle, the Iowa Independent’s Power Rankings puts Mike Huckabee in first place if the caucus was held today, but Minnesotans Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann also place in the top five.

Huckabee — who won the 2008 Iowa Caucuses — tops the list due to his still-high name recognition and the former Arkansas governor’s proximity to Iowans, as well as the fact that he never dismantled his statewide campaign organization.

Pawlenty ranks second, with proximity in his favor, and due to that factor, good name recognition. Where he lags, according to Power Rankings contributors: “Charisma and an ability to connect with people in small settings.”

“Pawlenty will likely be a lot of people’s second choice, which is both good and bad. There certainly isn’t room for both he and fellow Minnesotan Bachmann, who has a lot more charisma and a lot higher name ID, at the top of Iowa power rankings,” noted one participant.

In general, several of our panelists noted that Pawlenty comes across as “too slick and polished” to earn widespread support in the Iowa caucus. But, each is also quick to point out that it is still early and that Pawlenty has attracted key and influential Iowans to his team. In short, we suspect that Pawlenty will remain a mainstay in the Power Rankings.

Trailing Newt Gingrich, in third, and Mitt Romney, in fourth, is Bachmann:

Proximity, name recognition and the support of a certain Iowa congressman were the three determining factors that narrowly placed Minnesota’s Congresswoman Bachmann into our first top five.“ Bachmann is an Iowa native [and] congresswoman from neighboring Minnesota who is a major ally of U.S. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa). His endorsement alone is worth its weight in bronze.”

Bachmann, who is expected to garner a large share of support from tea party activists and social conservatives, has a fate that is inextricably hitched to that of Huckabee. If he officially plunges into the 2012 race, her stock sinks. If he openly announces that he will not seek the party’s nomination, Bachmann is poised to build a coalition from her two key demographics that is likely unattainable for other candidates leading our first rankings.

The next edition of the biweekly 2012 Power Rankings is scheduled for Mar. 27.