Photo: Alan Light, Flickr

SurveyUSA Poll: Slim majority supports gay marriage ban

Fifty-one percent said they'd vote for measure
By Andy Birkey
Thursday, May 26, 2011 at 8:52 am

A SurveyUSA/KSTP poll released Wednesday evening found that a slim majority of Minnesotans would vote for a ballot initiative that would place a ban on gay marriage in the Minnesota Constitution. According to the poll, 51 percent of registered voters surveyed said they would vote in favor of the amendment, while 40 percent say they’d vote against it. Eight percent said they would not vote either way. The poll differs greatly from two other polls conducted on the issue so far this year.

SurveyUSA polled 552 registered voters on Monday and Tuesday in a survey that has a margin of error of 4.3 percent. The poll is a huge shift from a similar poll last spring that showed 63 percent of Minnesotans would vote for a constitutional ban on gay marriage and 33 percent who would not.

Two other polls have been released so far in 2011 related to the anti-gay marriage amendment. In January, the Minnesota Family Council and the National Organization for Marriage — two groups that lobbied for the amendment — commissioned a poll by Lawrence Research, whose owner assisted with the campaign to ban gay marriage in California. It found that 57 percent of respondents would vote for the amendment compared to 41 percent who would vote against it. In contrast, a Star Tribune poll last week found that 55 percent oppose the amendment while 39 percent favor it.

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Comments

35 Comments

GeekAaron
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 8:53 am

Should we really be amending the constitution to ban something that such a slim majority seems to be against?


Mastermama
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 9:00 am

It would be interesting to know the demographics for each poll (i.e., urban vs rural voters, age, SES). Also, with such a small sample size, I doubt these numbers are truly reflective of the MN population. I must admit, I do find the recent trend and direction of these polls to be positive and encouraging.


Disgusted American
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 9:04 am

GeekAaron…to answer your question …Nooooooo……! No Other Minority EVER in the history of this country has had thier VERY RIGHTS Voted on by the Majority….ever! This is a Travesty…….in the end, all it will do is put a ((Hold)) on Justice and Fairness….Pit Neighbor against Neighbor…create hard feelings that NEVER go away…..leaving MN looking Foolish and Ugly, Unwelcoming and On the WONG side of History……while Brain Broown and Fattass Maggie Gallagher leave MN Pockets LINED with FRESH HATE CASH and its populace in Tatters…as they LAUGH ALL THE WAY TO THE BANK $$$$…Watchng MN in the rear-view mirrors, on thier way to Create Hate in another state…..for me, it will just add MN to the Long List of states NEVER to ever go too in the Hateful,Bigoted country…..as america stands as a Model of Hypocracy…Liberty & Justice for Some..NOT ALL.


GeekAaron
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 9:16 am

I completely agree, Disgusted American. If this passes, then in a decade or so when even fewer people are opposed to same-sex marriage, legalizing marriage equality will be even more difficult to accomplish, requiring the voters to further amend the constitution to make up for the injustice of this amendment.


Carl
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 9:34 am

@Disgusted & GeekAaron- And that is the hope of amendment supporters. They feel the same societal progress we do but fear it and hope to delay that which cannot be stopped except by armageddon. But if their delay game strategy fails and Christ hasn’t returned they will, I fear, opt for violent revolution a la Iran out of frustration.

We have an unthinking, uncompromising and very frightened group seeking social control called the religious right and they can’t be reasoned with only defeated.

Praise Jebus, God hates the secular state, Amen.


Steve
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 9:43 am

Remember, remember how polls usually understate opposition to homosexuality.


Lon Paul
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 9:58 am

I don’t remember that. I think Minnesotans are more tolerant overall than those in this small sample.


Disgusted American
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 10:11 am

No Other Minority EVER in the history of this country has had thier VERY RIGHTS as Citizens Voted on by the Majority….Ever! This is a Travesty…….in the end, all it will do is put a ((Hold)) on Justice and Fairness….Pit Neighbor against Neighbor…Create hard feelings that NEVER go away (see Prop 8 3yrs later) …..leaving MN looking Foolish and Ugly, and Unwelcoming and On the WRONG side of History……while Brian Brown and Fattass Maggie Gallagher leave MN Pockets LINED with FRESH HATE CASH and its populace in Tatters…as they LAUGH ALL THE WAY TO THE BANK $$$$…(this is HOW they make thier living, they DON’T have REAL JOBS) Watchng MN in the rear-view mirrors, on thier way to Create Hate in another state…..for me, it will just add MN to the Long List of states NEVER to ever go too in the Hateful,Bigoted country…..as america stands as a Model of Hypocracy…Liberty & Justice for Some..NOT ALL.


EricF
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 10:18 am

Even though this poll came out more supportive of a ban than the last couple, that’s a huge improvement over the earlier version of the same poll. The trend is in the right direction. It’s still going to be a hellacious fight against all the money the conservative groups will pour in, but we have a chance to beat this.


Mike
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 10:24 am

As a former Minnesotan who experienced Prop 8 here in CA,I can tell you this is just the beginning of a long & ugly battle.The anti equality groups will stop at nothing to ensure that their twisted views prevail. Until just before the vote the Prop 8 folks were losing according to the polls roughly 57% of voters said they would vote against Prop 8 & allow gay couples to continue to marry- remember gay couples were still getting married on election day.They doubled down with the whole “your kid will be taught about being gay” in school & they won 52% to 48%. They did the same crap in Maine as well & defeated marriage equality.
There are 2 important things to bear in mind: people lie to pollsters & the old “think of the kids & protect them from the gay” is visceral enough that it will sway otherwise reasonable people. MN has a shot at defeating this odious bigotry but everyone gay & straight will have to donate both their time & money.I am so sorry that this is happening & I will do what I can from CA to help .


Mike
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 10:30 am

One other quick thought- the anti marriage equality will be motivated to vote & will show up in droves at the polls .It’s imperative that those who oppose this measure vote in equal or greater numbers. Like any political event.turnout is key!


CJM
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 10:33 am

I am interested to know how the question(s) in the poll were phrased. The way something is asked can heavily influence the response one gets. For example, remember when John McCain was running against George W. Bush in the South Carolina primary? Karl Rove orchestrated a phone push-poll that said, “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain if you knew he fathered an illegitimate black child?” McCain had been polling ahead of Bush prior to this push poll.


Eli
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 10:46 am

Whatever the outcome of the vote is, it cannot be deemed constitutional. I hope the supreme court will take it down. You can’t enshrine this bull**** into the constitution.


evolutionisfact
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 10:48 am

Save your $$$ for the SUPREME COURT battle folks! THAT(not the voting polls)is where our civil rights will be determined!! Don’t lower yourselves to the level of the hetero enemy(their not worth it).


Carl
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 11:06 am

FWIW- Any ballot that is submitted but blank in the amendment boxes is counted as a vote against the amendment. So this poll suggests a 51-49 split and with a margin of error around 4% that put’s the sides essentially even. Adjust that for people’s tendency to play down their biases when polled but reveal them in the voting booth proves amendment opponents have work to do but the anti-marriage amendment can be defeated.

Reveal the message and methods extremist’s use to promote the amendment and present the facts to voters. Minnesotans are better than Tom Prichard and the MFC.

Praise Jebus, God hates tolerance and grace, Amen.


Marcus
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 11:20 am

If this 51% majority is afraid of gay marriage and what it will do for the sanctity of marriage, then this 51% IS GAY!!!! Seriously!!! If you are strait how will gay people getting married effect you?? It doesn’t !! This 51 % needs to re-evaluate their sexuality..


Disgusted American
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 11:23 am

Think of every argument that you’ve heard in opposing gay marriage. Religion-b­ased arguments are exceedingl­y easy for to overcome. These are very simple suggestion­s for your considerat­ion :

Marriage isn’t necessaril­y about love.
You can be in love and not be married.
You can be married and not be in love.

Marriage isn’t about sex.
You can have sex and not be married.
You can be married and not have sex.

Marriage isn’t about children.
You can have children and not be married.
You can be married and not have children.

Marriage isn’t about religion.
You can be an atheist and be married.
You can be married without a preacher.

Marriage is about property, kinship and inheritanc­e. The marriage license is an applicatio­n for State and Federal benefits granted a specific class of people.

Denying US Citizens benefits granted other US Citizens on the basis of their sexual orientatio­n is unconstitu­tional. Think critically people.


Kevin
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 12:07 pm

How this all works out in the end for MN depends a great deal (I believe) on how all these ad campaigns go about their business. I’m hoping a majority of Minnesotans will be so sick and tired of the fear and morality ones (in favor of the amendment) they will show up at the polls just to get back at the nut jobs in support of this amendment.

In the end though, I really don’t know how this whole thing is going to work out. I do know if our Taliban members don’t accomplish anything significant relating to jobs and the economy, they will be booted to the Wisconsin border in droves. Right now, this amendment is their only legacy – and it ain’t looking good.


Lane
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 12:44 pm

Regardless of the polls and the upcoming ad campaigns, it is SO important to talk to family, friends, co-workers, church members and clergy, businesspeople, and others! Get them involved, too! Write letters to the local papers; get help to critique such letters for effectiveness and accuracy before submitting to the editor. GOTV efforts – especially among younger voters – will also be very important as well.

Remember, stay classy – and insist that others do so as well. Insist on effective ad campaigns that do not “preach to the choir” or degenerate into reactionary noise ala Michele Bachmann – Tarryll Clark TV ads. Get out of your gay ghetto – what little there is left of it these days, and be out there among the people! The people are the key to taking back Minnesota for ALL OF US and ALL OUR CHILDREN that will follow us! It is the only way to shut down the extremist industry that we are all so sick of.


TSG
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 12:49 pm

I think it will pass by a very very slim majority, probably after a recount. Even if it fails and marriage equality is eventually approved in MN and USA, when I get married it will probably still be in Canada just because I don’t trust the citizens of America to not change their minds later and take it away and try to nullify my marriage.


Lane
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 12:50 pm

PS Posting the same sort of comments and rebuttals over and over again here may feel good, but it is not that productive because this activity is like preaching to the choir. Just get out there among the people! Apply your writing skills to those letters to the local papers. You’d be surprised how this can jump-start local conversations and add depth beyond the usual fodder from the town minister and the local politicians.


Disgusted American
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 2:31 pm

here’s an interesting video from YouTube from David Boise and Ted Olson regarding Prop 8 ..and the BS lies from the other side….trying to prevent LGBT people RIGHTS of Marriage

http://www.queerty.com/video-prop-8-lawyers-olson-boies-explain-just-what-the-hell-theyre-thinking-2-20110526/


Sam
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 3:42 pm

Public Policy Polling (PPP) is going to run a poll on various issues in Minnesota over the weekend. It has been suggested to do a question on marriage. Many have suggested to use the question that will be on the ballot.

I personally have trouble trusting SurveyUSA because they rarely post their demographics so you don’t know if they are polling using the question on the ballot or the question is phrased differently. I wait till PPP releases its polling data next week.


Wendy Leigh
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 4:30 pm

I think Minnesotans don’t like being lied to and manipulated by peer-refuted and discredited works by one man, Paul Cameron. All the creepy-isms being put forth by MFC has been refuted and debunked and as a matter of fact, the man has been received citations and sanction by the entire profession and by a federal judge!

Just because MFC and NOM like what he said about LGBTI’s and are betting that Minnesota wont discover the truth, I think they underestimate the good people that makes this state great, and how much Minnesotans dont like to be manipulated by liars and kooks.


Wendy Leigh
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 6:13 pm

Be It Resolved: That the American Psychiatric Association reaffirms its position that there is no credible scientific evidence that same sex attraction is pathological, chosen, needs “cure,” or entails threat to heterosexual families or to children;

That the American Psychiatric Association condemns societal scapegoating and stigmatization of gay, lesbian, and bisexual people anywhere in the world;

That the American Psychiatric Association condemns criminalization of homosexual behavior and calls upon the Ugandan legislature to reject the Anti-Homosexuality Bill.

I call on Minnesotans to reject the Minnesota Anti-Homosexuality Bill at the polls.

The same propaganda campaign of dehumanizing lies of Paul Cameron that was unleashed against the people of Uganda as is being propagated against Minnesotans via MFC, FRC and AFA aka. The Family, same mythology, same folks, same money.

Minnesota is above this.

http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/05/14/american-psychiatric-association-issues-statement-against-anti-homosexuality-bill/comment-page-2/#comment-349568


Gay Marriage Watch » Blog Archive » MN: Poll Says 51% Would Vote for Marriage Equality Ban, 40% Against
Pingback posted May 26, 2011 @ 7:17 pm

[...] Full Story from the MN Independent [...]


Eric
Comment posted May 26, 2011 @ 10:24 pm

I urge us all to think strategically and creatively. There are probably hundreds of ways we can fight this right-wing religious crusade. A few humble suggestions:

1) Have a movie/fundraising/discussion event with the documentary 8: The Mormon Proposition.
2) Compile in your own mind a Top 5 list of the lies, misinformation, and arguments you hear about GLBT people and same sex marriage. Think of how you’re going to respond in a compelling, friendly way to people who bring these up in conversation.
3) Have your name added to OutFront MN’s email list, and any other supportive organization. Be prepared to show up for quite a few public marches and protests.
4) Contact Twin Cities Pride http://www.tcpride.org/ and encourage them to think creatively about how they can enlist as many people as possible at Pride in efforts to counter this amendment.
5) Start thinking ahead to a couple of months before the 2012 vote. Ask yourself what you’ll be doing for the last 8-12 weeks before the vote. Make a vow to yourself to do something, maybe a bunch of things, about the election. Donate to gay friendly candidates and volunteer in their campaigns. Join get-out-the vote efforts.
6) Start voter registration volunteer work now (or when the experts suggest the best time is). Contact a political party for info on how to do this.
7) Examine the available research and your own experience on how personal change happens, specifically, how beliefs and attitudes change and the strategies you can use to assist that process.

Remember that hardly anyone in our culture is a committed critical thinker. Logic and rational argument might not work with many people. Positive interactions might stand a better chance.


Disgusted American
Comment posted May 27, 2011 @ 9:56 am

why any minority in 2011, 2012 or whatever should have to BEG for their RIGHTS from a Majority is Beyond Disgusting, it’s Pathetic and UN-AMERICAN!


Diane
Comment posted May 27, 2011 @ 12:46 pm

@ Eric – great ideas. I think it’s a lot tougher for people to vote against gay marriage when they see their friends and neighbors negatively affected by this discrimination. The point isn’t to waste time on the fundamentalists and those who won’t ever change their minds, it’s to try to reach the reasonable people who maybe just don’t understand what this amendment really means. I’ll be signing up to volunteer for whatever opportunities arise! (And maybe make some opportunities of my own.)


Lane
Comment posted May 27, 2011 @ 3:12 pm

I feel like that AFLAC duck loudly quacking for the umpteenth time – write letters to local papers in each of the 87 counties – especially in the suburbs and rural areas!


Wendy Leigh
Comment posted May 28, 2011 @ 12:13 pm

btw….. A new report commissioned by the U.S. Catholic Conference of Bishops has kindly concluded that gay priests were not the cause of the explosion of child abuse cases that has, you should pardon the expression, bedeviled the Church over the past several decades. In fact, echoing the argument gay activists have made forever, the study found that more openness among gay priests is actually one of the reason reports of abuse have been declining.

But that hasn’t stopped the congregants in the far right pews of the Church from insisting that it’s still all our fault.

The study, 300 pages and five years in the making, was undertaken by researchers at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. In a case of the fox paying for an investigation into the hen house break-in, the Church anted up half the $1.8 million needed for the study. As might be expected given the funding source, the report reaches a number of unusual conclusions, including the fact that a vanishingly small number of priests were actually pedophiles—just four percent of all the priests convicted of child abuse—a statistic arrived at by defining pedophilia as attraction to children aged 10 or younger. Or, in other words, by using a definition no one else uses.

But the report also dismissed the canard that the scandal had anything to do with gay priests. In fact, it says, gay priests were part of the solution to the problem. It directly correlates rise in the number of gay priests starting in the 1970s to “a decreased incidence of abuse—not an increased incidence of abuse.”

Bill Donohue is not pleased.


Jerry
Comment posted May 31, 2011 @ 7:28 am

And of course the eight per cent who said they wouldn’t vote either way, will actually be voting “no”. So it’s 51/48. Pretty close, considering the pole was backed by KSTP, an entity that errs on the conservative side. (Think: Stanley Hubbard)


Wendy Leigh
Comment posted June 1, 2011 @ 9:29 am

People need to know that this ‘unholy alliance’ pushing these unconstitutional amendments are not “Christian” as they say, they are a cult and that cannot be said enough. … fulfilling the 7 Mountain Mandate and “making disciples of all nations”

Traditionally, to most Christians, the term “spiritual warfare” has usually referred to an internal moral struggle. However, to growing numbers of “apostolic and prophetic” leaders such as C. Peter Wagner and Ed Silvoso, “spiritual warfare” means things like exorcism, witch hunts (a.k.a. “spiritual mapping”), burning non-Christian religious artifacts, and “discipling” whole nations — including their governments, not just individual citizens.

A leading network within this movement, the New Apostolic Reformation, has an explicitly theocratic goal, the “seven mountains mandate”: they explicitly desire to take over seven spheres of power in society including government. And they aim to eradicate what they see as demonic influences, including gays and all non-Christian religions. Their successes in some countries, such as Uganda, have had dire consequences such as Uganda’s kill-the-gays bill…”

They are not just comming for the gays, they are coming for ANYONE who does not see their way of thinking including the insufficiently pious. Ed Silvosos group is from Minnesota. Wake up people!


Wendy Leigh
Comment posted June 1, 2011 @ 9:30 am

http://www.deceptioninthechurch.com/newapostolic.html


Michael
Comment posted August 18, 2011 @ 6:09 pm

Even if it does fail, the whole process will leave a tremendous psychological effect on many gay people’s minds. It makes us suspicious of the majority. Whenever I walk down the street, and someone tries to interact with me, I ask myself, “I wonder if so-and-so was shallow enough to vote against my rights.” When it’s all said and done, this political bigotry only strains relationships. In the end, we all lose because, I’m sorry to say it, once someone’s been burned over once, it’s difficult to regain their trust. I mean, you think I’m too perverted to be around your children? Fine. Don’t do us any favors by keeping your little spoiled, obnoxioius brats out of my hair. They’re the ones who need saving, not me. I’m also so sorry to have run the risk of “endoctrinating” them through my mere presence. My sister, thanks to the eternal wisdom of my grandmother, is afraid to leave her two sons alone with me for any period of time. She said, “Be careful honey, he might be tempted.” She even canceled a visit because I was at home with my parents. Now you tell me, how am I supposed to feel in the aftermath of all this? And why on earth would I want to sexually molest two little boys? I like men, not kids. DUH!!!!!!

So yeah, for any of you thinking about voting against not only my rights but my human dignity, make sure you don’t get more than what you bargained for. You’re going to have some deep soul-searching to do later in life. In any case, it’s too late for my generation, so maybe you’ll have better luck with the next one. Beneath the surface of every human is an individual who would like to be judged for their deeds and not the way they were born. And you don’t need to thump your Bibles in order to do so. Follow your hearts and listen to what your conscience tells you. Really, your conscience, not your preacher but your very own inner voice. Is this really God’s work?

In any case, I know how Black people have felt all along. I sometimes couldn’t understand their distance or weariness when interacting with whites but dear God, it all hits home now.


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