Palin run could complicate Bachmann’s candidacy
Friday, July 08, 2011 at 1:51 pm
Minnesota congresswoman and Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann has been rocketing up polls in early primary and caucus states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Some grassroots activists, as the Iowa Independent reported, are convinced that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will jump into the race. How would that affect Bachmann’s shot at the nomination in these early-voting states?
On the surface, Palin and Bachmann have much in common, including their support of the tea party movement. But the entry of Palin into the race wouldn’t necessarily hurt Bachmann more than most other candidates, University of Iowa Political Science Professor Tim Hagle told the Minnesota Independent.
In a race where former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum and Herman Cain are all jockeying for the same tea party crowd, a new entry would likely pull from all those conservative candidates.
“That group of voters that all those candidates are competing for would be divided up and that would leave room for a slightly more moderate Republican to come in and perhaps to get a victory,” Hagle said.
Bachmann has risen into second place behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who’s widely considered to be the moderate in the race, in early polling in Iowa and New Hampshire. But being in the lead without Palin to attract some of the early criticism could be dangerous for Bachmann.
“If it looks like she is — as people have been describing her — the alternative to Romney, then it means she’s probably going to come under more fire,” Hagle said.
Still, support in early polls for all Republican candidates is softer than in recent years, opening up the possibility that voters would more willingly switch their allegiances to a late entry like Palin.
“It gives that opportunity for someone who really has that star-power and pizzazz and charisma to scoop up a lot of these people,” Hagle said. “Bachmann seems to have a lot of star-power — but not as much as Palin.”
If conservatives don’t coalesce around one inspiring candidate, Palin could potentially wait as long as Thanksgiving to enter the race, Hagle said, because she is so well-known in conservative circles — although no candidate has previously had much success with such a late entry in the state.
One of Bachmann’s main strengths over Palin are her favorability numbers. In the most recent Iowa polls, she came in at the top with likely Republican primary voters, with only 12 percent viewing her unfavorably. Despite press coverage of some high-profile gaffes, Bachmann managed to carry a similar favorability rating into the poll release this week from New Hampshire.
Palin, because she is already well-known, will have trouble shifting the fairly high negative opinions people have already formed of her, said Hagle, whereas views of Bachmann have had less time to harden.
For both Bachmann and Palin, a repeat of the 2008 presidential campaign, where people construed some Democratic attacks on Palin to be sexist, could backfire for Democrats, Hagle said.
“It caught a lot of Republicans off balance, they didn’t expect that kind of attack on Palin,” Hagle said. “Even though Bachmann got a little of that already, I think there would be much more push-back this time.”
16 Comments
Comment posted July 8, 2011 @ 1:58 pm
Let’s see… if I were Republican or a TBaalParty type would I choose the Grizzly Quitter Palin or Big Hair Bad Makeup Bachmann… hmmmm
I’ll have to think on it.
Jeff Wilfahrt, Rosemount, MN
Comment posted July 8, 2011 @ 2:57 pm
Palin continues to keep her name alive by keeping the rumor alive she might jump into the race. I wouldn’t be surprised if she has a paid staff person whose only job is to plant these stories. It makes $$ for her. That’s it. If she’s not continually “almost in the race” , the money dries up, she becomes of no interest and goes away. She would never accept that. Palin feeds on attention.
Comment posted July 8, 2011 @ 3:36 pm
could you imagine the two of these women in a debate? I think the fact checkers are drooling over the idea!
Comment posted July 8, 2011 @ 4:02 pm
She is just shaking her money maker. She would never run because then she would actually have to work.
Comment posted July 8, 2011 @ 4:44 pm
I don’t know who is doing the polling here, but there isn’t a chance in hell that great numbers of rational Americans in any party are even the slightest bit interested in either of the twisted sisters. Why do I smell fish?
Comment posted July 8, 2011 @ 6:53 pm
Listen to the repulsive, sexist garbage being spewed by typical liberals who genuinely hate conservative feminists who are successful at marriage, motherhood and careers.
The same liberal imbeciles will drool and applaud someone like Caroline Kennedy who, like, you know, uh, can’t speak English.
The looney left fears the coming 8 years of President Palin!
Comment posted July 8, 2011 @ 11:01 pm
I believe both Palin and Bachmann are too radical in their beliefs and views to be elected in the general election. The Republican Party cannot forget that mainstream America won’t accept ether the radical positions nor the many speaking mistakes they have made that seem they are either poor at thinking on their feet or not smart enough to run the country. The far right of the GOP might like them but the GOP will lose unless its finds an articulate, moderate and well like candidate like Guiliani or similar. The GOP appears to me making this mistake in elections 101. Why? There must be someone electable in the GOP that meets the requirements to win. The GOP far right needs to back off or lose.
Comment posted July 9, 2011 @ 12:41 am
Sorry Minnesota. Nobody has gone from the House of Representatives to the Presidency since James Garfield did it in 1880. The moment Palin announces, she becomes the clear front-runner.
Comment posted July 9, 2011 @ 6:01 am
Probably missing some of Sarah’s, but all of Obama’s are there.
SARAH PALIN’S history of executive and leadership positions:
1996 – Elected Mayor of Wasilla
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1999 – Reelected Mayor of Wasilla
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2002 – Elected as President of AK Conference of Mayors by fellow mayors in the state
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2003 – Appointed by Governor(and fmr Senator) as Chairman of AK Oil and Gas Agency(A major leadership post in the state’s most vital economic field and industry)
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2006 – Elected Governor
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2007 – Elected Chairman of Interstate Oil and Gas Compact, a multi-state/intl group focused on energy development
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2008 – Nominated by GOP as Vice Presidential nominee after being selected by party’s Presidential nominee
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BARRACK OBAMA’S history of executive and leadership positions pre-presidency:
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That pretty much sums up my point.
Comment posted July 9, 2011 @ 10:43 am
@bill589: You make a great point. That must be why Alaska did and is doing so well, while most of America is hurting so badly.
Could it be that the current resident of the WH is totall incompetent ? Sure appears so!
Comment posted July 9, 2011 @ 1:37 pm
Bill589
Are you serious? Do you really want to compare Palin to Obama in leadership experience?? Now I realize you won’t read a bit of what I’m going to include below because time and time again it has been demonstrated and proven that conservatives do not want the truth, cannot accept the truth, will only believe what they’ve been told to believe.
In any case, here’s a bit of President Obama’s resume which clearly indicates and demonstrates his previous leadership abilities and experience. In comparison to what you posted about Palin, I think he could have accomplished that stuff on an ordinary Tuesday, before lunch while nursing a head cold.
(borrowed in part from Wiki)
Chicago community organizer and Harvard Law School
Two years after graduating, Obama was hired in Chicago as director of the Developing Communities Project (DCP), a church-based community organization originally comprising eight Catholic parishes in Greater Roseland (Roseland, West Pullman and Riverdale) on Chicago’s far South Side. He worked there as a community organizer from June 1985 to May 1988.[25][26] During his three years as the DCP’s director, its staff grew from one to thirteen. He helped set up a job training program, a college preparatory tutoring program, and a tenants’ rights organization in Altgeld Gardens.[27] Obama also worked as a consultant and instructor for the Gamaliel Foundation, a community organizing institute.[28] In mid-1988, he traveled for the first time in Europe for three weeks and then for five weeks in Kenya, where he met many of his paternal relatives for the first time.[29] He returned in August 2006 for a visit to his father’s birthplace, a village near Kisumu in rural western Kenya.[30]
In late 1988, Obama entered Harvard Law School. He was selected as an editor of the Harvard Law Review at the end of his first year,[31] and president of the journal in his second year.[27][32] During his summers, he returned to Chicago, where he worked as a summer associate at the law firms of Sidley Austin in 1989 and Hopkins & Sutter in 1990.[33] After graduating with a Juris Doctor magna cum laude[34] from Harvard in 1991, he returned to Chicago.[31] Obama’s election as the first black president of the Harvard Law Review gained national media attention[27][32] and led to a publishing contract and advance for a book about race relations,[35] which evolved into a personal memoir. The manuscript was published in mid-1995 as Dreams from My Father.[35]
University of Chicago Law School and civil rights attorney
In 1991, Obama accepted a two-year position as Visiting Law and Government Fellow at the University of Chicago Law School to work on his first book.[35][36] He then served as a professor at the University of Chicago Law School for twelve years—as a Lecturer from 1992 to 1996, and as a Senior Lecturer from 1996 to 2004—teaching constitutional law.[37]
From April to October 1992, Obama directed Illinois’s Project Vote, a voter registration drive with ten staffers and seven hundred volunteer registrars; it achieved its goal of registering 150,000 of 400,000 unregistered African Americans in the state, and led to Crain’s Chicago Business naming Obama to its 1993 list of “40 under Forty” powers to be.[38] In 1993 he joined Davis, Miner, Barnhill & Galland, a 13-attorney law firm specializing in civil rights litigation and neighborhood economic development, where he was an associate for three years from 1993 to 1996, then of counsel from 1996 to 2004, with his law license becoming inactive in 2002.[39]
From 1994 to 2002, Obama served on the boards of directors of the Woods Fund of Chicago, which in 1985 had been the first foundation to fund the Developing Communities Project, and of the Joyce Foundation.[25] He served on the board of directors of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge from 1995 to 2002, as founding president and chairman of the board of directors from 1995 to 1999.[25]
Legislative career: 1997–2008
Obama was elected to the Illinois Senate in 1996, succeeding State Senator Alice Palmer as Senator from Illinois’s 13th District, which at that time spanned Chicago South Side neighborhoods from Hyde Park – Kenwood south to South Shore and west to Chicago Lawn.[40] Once elected, Obama gained bipartisan support for legislation reforming ethics and health care laws.[41] He sponsored a law increasing tax credits for low-income workers, negotiated welfare reform, and promoted increased subsidies for childcare.[42] In 2001, as co-chairman of the bipartisan Joint Committee on Administrative Rules, Obama supported Republican Governor Ryan’s payday loan regulations and predatory mortgage lending regulations aimed at averting home foreclosures.[43]
Obama was reelected to the Illinois Senate in 1998, defeating Republican Yesse Yehudah in the general election, and was reelected again in 2002.[44] In 2000, he lost a Democratic primary run for the U.S. House of Representatives to four-term incumbent Bobby Rush by a margin of two to one.[45]
In January 2003, Obama became chairman of the Illinois Senate’s Health and Human Services Committee when Democrats, after a decade in the minority, regained a majority.[46] He sponsored and led unanimous, bipartisan passage of legislation to monitor racial profiling by requiring police to record the race of drivers they detained, and legislation making Illinois the first state to mandate videotaping of homicide interrogations.[42][47] During his 2004 general election campaign for U.S. Senate, police representatives credited Obama for his active engagement with police organizations in enacting death penalty reforms.[48] Obama resigned from the Illinois Senate in November 2004 following his election to the U.S. Senate.[49]
U.S. Senator: 2005–2008
Obama was sworn in as a senator on January 4, 2005,[63] becoming the only Senate member of the Congressional Black Caucus.[64] CQ Weekly characterized him as a “loyal Democrat” based on analysis of all Senate votes in 2005–2007. Obama announced on November 13, 2008, that he would resign his Senate seat on November 16, 2008, before the start of the lame-duck session, to focus on his transition period for the presidency.[65]
Legislation
Obama cosponsored the Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act.[67] He introduced two initiatives bearing his name: Lugar–Obama, which expanded the Nunn–Lugar cooperative threat reduction concept to conventional weapons,[68] and the Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act of 2006, which authorized the establishment of USAspending.gov, a web search engine on federal spending.[69] On June 3, 2008, Senator Obama, along with Senators Tom Carper, Tom Coburn, and John McCain, introduced follow-up legislation: Strengthening Transparency and Accountability in Federal Spending Act of 2008.[70]
Obama sponsored legislation that would have required nuclear plant owners to notify state and local authorities of radioactive leaks, but the bill failed to pass in the full Senate after being heavily modified in committee.[71] Regarding tort reform, Obama voted for the Class Action Fairness Act of 2005 and the FISA Amendments Act of 2008, which grants immunity from civil liability to telecommunications companies complicit with NSA warrantless wiretapping operations.[72]
In December 2006, President Bush signed into law the Democratic Republic of the Congo Relief, Security, and Democracy Promotion Act, marking the first federal legislation to be enacted with Obama as its primary sponsor.[74] In January 2007, Obama and Senator Feingold introduced a corporate jet provision to the Honest Leadership and Open Government Act, which was signed into law in September 2007.[75] Obama also introduced Deceptive Practices and Voter Intimidation Prevention Act, a bill to criminalize deceptive practices in federal elections,[76] and the Iraq War De-Escalation Act of 2007,[77] neither of which has been signed into law.
Later in 2007, Obama sponsored an amendment to the Defense Authorization Act adding safeguards for personality disorder military discharges.[78] This amendment passed the full Senate in the spring of 2008.[79] He sponsored the Iran Sanctions Enabling Act supporting divestment of state pension funds from Iran’s oil and gas industry, which has not passed committee, and co-sponsored legislation to reduce risks of nuclear terrorism.[80] Obama also sponsored a Senate amendment to the State Children’s Health Insurance Program providing one year of job protection for family members caring for soldiers with combat-related injuries.[81]
Committees
Obama held assignments on the Senate Committees for Foreign Relations, Environment and Public Works and Veterans’ Affairs through December 2006.[82] In January 2007, he left the Environment and Public Works committee and took additional assignments with Health, Education, Labor and Pensions and Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.[83] He also became Chairman of the Senate’s subcommittee on European Affairs.[84] As a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Obama made official trips to Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. He met with Mahmoud Abbas before Abbas became President of the Palestinian Authority, and gave a speech at the University of Nairobi condemning corruption within the Kenyan government.[85]
Comment posted July 9, 2011 @ 7:38 pm
Star power and pizzazz. What a way to run a planet.
Comment posted July 9, 2011 @ 10:32 pm
I can’t wait for the refresher course in American History we are going to receive from these two scholars.
Throw in Santorum or Rick Perry and now you’ve got a show Chuck Barris would be proud of.
Comment posted July 10, 2011 @ 2:06 pm
Moderate republicans? The GOP has labeled them RINOs and actively sought to cleanse them from the party.
The GOP has become too extreme to serve the greater good, and they don’t want to anyway.
The worst thing America could do is elect a Prom-Queen-In-Chief.
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