Iowa Straw Poll could salvage Pawlenty’s floundering candidacy, experts say

Despite the fact that he’s been prepping his presidential campaign for the last few years, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has so far had a tough time distinguishing himself in the crowded Republican field.

In poll after poll, Pawlenty has dawdled in the single digits among Republicans. His poor performance has led to a flood of bad press for the Pawlenty campaign, including an article descriptively titled “When a campaign starts to smell like death” at Salon last week.

There’s no doubt Pawlenty would rather be in the lead. But all may not be lost for his presidential ambitions, according to experts watching the campaign.

Pawlenty’s invested a lot of money in the early voting state of Iowa to build up a formidable campaign machine. Rather than focusing immediately on the February caucus in the state, Pawlenty is fixated on the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames in August.

“Even though a whole lot of people are starting to pay attention in Iowa, in terms of activists and folks like me who follow stuff like this anyway, the summer is when a lot happens, when they’re getting people to go to that straw poll,” University of Iowa politicial scientist Tim Hagle told the Minnesota Independent. “A good showing at the straw poll will get Pawlenty on people’s radar.”

Public polling, even of likely Republican caucus-goers, doesn’t dictate the results of Ames straw poll, Hagle said, because it requires a higher level of commitment.

“The main test of [the straw poll] is one of organization,” Hagle said. “You have all these candidates who are claiming, ‘I’m a presidential candidate.’ But do they have the support? Do they have the fundraising ability? Do they have the organizational ability to be able to get supporters over to Ames, Iowa, to participate?”

Most observers agree that Pawlenty has one of the strongest ground operations in Iowa.

In recent weeks, Pawlenty’s made a number of moves to better position his campaign for the straw poll, including the hiring of Sarah Huckabee Sanders, daughter of 2008 caucus winner and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Huckabee Sanders was quoted in a recent campaign video saying that Pawlenty “has the same conservative convictions and executive experience I admire in my dad.” A comeback at this point wouldn’t be unprecedented.

“At this time four years ago, Huckabee’s campaign was languishing down in single digits too and doing the things it needed to do sort of under the radar to get themselves propelled to a second place finish in the straw poll,” Hagle said. “That of course propelled Huckabee on to victory in the 2008 caucuses.”

Kathryn Pearson, a political science professor at the University of Minnesota, told the Minnesota Independent that Pawlenty’s campaign really needs to make a good showing in this straw poll to help build momentum in other areas where he’s been faltering.

“His low polling and his less-than-stellar fundraising totals have really contributed to his slow start,” Pearson said.

Although there are other ways to succeed in the state, the straw poll would be the most direct route for Pawlenty to gain important endorsements, raise money and build up the momentum to carry him through to Iowa’s February caucuses.

But Pawlenty’s focus on the straw poll doesn’t come without its own challenges.

In a state like Iowa, where the Republican caucuses are incredibly friendly to social conservatives like Huckabee, Pawlenty has invested much energy in wooing the conservative base, without much success. He’s still seen as an insider to the left of candidates like Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, Pearson said. But former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is skipping the Iowa Straw Poll, which could leave space for a Pawlenty opening among the state’s moderates.

“This touches on one of Pawlenty’s problems, he tries to appeal to everyone in the Republican electorate, and that’s a strategy that’s not working here,” said Pearson. “Pawlenty’s best shot is to be the person left standing as the insider candidate if Romney or [former Utah Gov. Jon] Huntsman should implode.”

Much could still happen in Iowa in the more than seven months until the Iowa caucuses, especially as the controversial backgrounds of more charismatic candidates like Bachmann are more closely examined.