Bachmann drops to last place in Iowa 2012 Presidential Power Rankings
Monday, October 17, 2011 at 1:18 pm
- 43 Comments
In the 15th edition of The Iowa Independent’s Power Rankings, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota has fallen to the back of the GOP herd, according to the journalists, academics and political consultants surveyed.
A major disconnect is underway that makes it difficult to know exactly how the caucuses would play out if they were held tonight. That is, the candidates who are surging in polling are those who aren’t spending time in Iowa, a state that values its grassroots, retail politics.
So while the field itself became clearer with the final announcements by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin that they would not seek the nomination, the path out of the caucuses has become more muddy. Social conservatives are rumored to make up 60 percent of GOP caucus-goers in Iowa, and we’ve yet to see them coalesce around a single candidate. Republicans who focus more on fiscal issues also have yet to find a home within the current field.
The situation, according to our group of assembled panelists, has opened a door for individuals previously expected to do “just enough” in the Iowa caucuses due to assembled core support to grab the golden ring of victory.
Here’s how our panel, comprised of grassroots activists, state political reporters, consultants, academics and strategists, believe the caucuses would play out if they were held tonight:
Ron Paul — The Texas congressman surges to the top of our rankings for the first time, but not without caution.
“If the caucuses were held today, [Paul] would win because he’s the only candidate with an excited base and an excellent organization,” a panelist noted.
“However, the caucuses being held January 3 could hurt him because a lot of his young voters will still be on Christmas break.”
The panelists have given props to the Paul organization for some time, and there is no denying that the Texan has a core group of supporters that are incredibly loyal and excited. The question, at least for our panelists, has always been if there were enough supporters to compete against a candidate that drew large swaths of social conservatives (i.e., Huckabee in 2008).
But, in this 15th edition of our rankings, our panelists now see a social conservative base so fractured in the Hawkeye State as to allow Paul’s seemingly limited base — that is, a base that doesn’t appear to be drawing vast numbers of new supporters — to exit Iowa with a victory.
“Paul has been back in the state, and he is drawing good crowds. But, from what I’ve seen, these are the same people who have been showing up at Paul’s events for ages. There’s not much new blood here, which made a difference in 2008, but may not really matter in 2012.”
Paul was given an opportunity to shine in the last presidential debate in New Hampshire due to its focus on the economy. The format also, as one of the panelists noted, didn’t lend itself to Paul’s past problems where his differences with others in the field were a focus.
“He’s also started airing TV ads. The two I’ve seen focus mostly on core Republican issues as one is pro-life and the other concerns national security. These should help him with the Republican base and he might pick up some supporters who are ambivalent about the other candidates. Then again, I don’t think he’ll pick up many. Those who don’t want to go with Romney will be looking mostly at other choices. Like Romney, Paul has been through this before and is a known quantity for most likely caucusgoers. As such, it’s unlikely that we would see any surge for him.”
Mitt Romney — Speaking of the former Massachusetts governor, he and Paul are separated in this edition by less than two percent. Our panelists believe that Romney’s long-standing core support in Iowa, combined with the inability thus far of the “anti-Romney contingent” to find a suitable home with a specific candidate would allow him to exit Iowa in very good shape if the caucuses were held tonight.
“The biggest problem Romney has had in Iowa is the group of social conservatives that find him uniquely undesirable,” wrote a panelist. “Whether that is because of his religion or for other reasons, it doesn’t really matter because these are individuals who won’t simply not support him, but individuals who will actively pursue a strategy to prevent him from exiting Iowa with a victory. In the past that has meant some supporting a candidate they otherwise would not, just because they see an opportunity to elevate someone ahead of Romney.
“I think we saw that in 2008 with the Arkansas governor. Yes, Huckabee had good support, but there were some who viewed his candidacy as the anti-Romney campaign, even when they knew Huckabee was not likely to go the distance.”
And that last point of electability might be the one place where Romney bests Paul and other members of the GOP field.
“His support has been steady. He has had good debate performances and is generally well versed on the issues. He isn’t great at retail politics, but isn’t horrible either. People know his weaknesses and may be willing to look past them if they believe he has the best chance to beat Obama, which is the key factor for most Republicans. To the extent that the ‘not Romney’ candidates continue to split the support of both social conservatives and tea partiers, Romney could be the caucus winner.”
Another panelists put it even more bluntly, “Regardless of how hard Romney is working Iowa, he still looks like the candidate most likely to defeat the President due to his message discipline.”
Herman Cain — The Atlanta businessman is seeing a national surge, which didn’t go unnoticed by our panelists. But it is also difficult to see a path to a Cain victory in Iowa due to lack of organization.
“Each of the candidates have come to Iowa, stood up and presented themselves as ‘not Romney,’ but that can only take you so far — as they’ve all hopefully realized by now. Cain was one of many and found to be lacking shortly after coming on the scene. Iowans are willing to take another look, but there had better be some substance there this time around or it will be a very short look.”
Cain has another big problem in the Hawkeye State: visibility. He hasn’t returned to Iowa since the Straw Poll, which makes is rather difficult for grassroots activists to kick the tires. He does, however, plan to return to the state this weekend and those stops will likely provide a clearer picture of his caucus hopes.
“I do love to hear Cain speak. I like his passion and the energy he leaves behind in the room. But if he isn’t going to be in Iowa building that energy, building an organization that will push people to their caucus site, he isn’t going to do well in Iowa. He has got to be on the ground, and he’s got to be serious. We’ve already got the ‘teleprompter president’ and Iowans don’t want another person who can speak well but accomplish nothing. He’s got to show us more than a good speech.”
Another panelists agrees. “Cain could argue that he’s managed to increase his popularity in Iowa despite not having been here in over two months. That’s true, but there’s a big difference between telling a pollster that you like Cain and whether you would go out to caucus for him on a January evening. Like Bachmann and Perry before him, Cain is — and I hate to use this phrase, but I suppose it fits — the flavor of the month. In other words, the candidate that many are looking to at the moment to fill the not-Romney slot. … Right now, there are probably enough supporters who would turn out for Cain that he would finish in the top five, but I think he has a lot of work to do to seal the deal, and it doesn’t seem that he’s planning on doing it.”
Rick Perry — The honeymoon has officially come to an end for the Texas governor.
There is one aspect of Perry’s candidacy in which our panelists all agree: horrible, horrible, horrible debate performances. While national debates typically aren’t enough to toss someone out of the running, especially in retail-heavy Iowa, they do make an impression.
“Perry remains on a downward slide, with no end in sight until he finds a game-changer.”
Perry has been back in Iowa and has emphasized his successes in meeting one-on-one. He has reached out to Iowa supporters and potential supporters in the wake of his dismal debate performances. But it might be too little, too late.
“There was a rocky start for Perry in Iowa to begin with because of the way his announcement seemed to step on the Ames Straw Poll. It was good that he came into the state right after that announcement and began retail politics here — something he seems to be pretty good at doing. But no matter how much I like him as a person, no matter how much I think he might be a good leader, all I have to do is imagine him on a national stage with Obama and I cringe. We can’t afford another four years of Obama, and the general election isn’t a retail contest.”
Rick Santorum — After many months of beating the Iowa bushes, it appears that the former senator from Pennsylvania is finally beginning to gain traction in Iowa.
“Santorum continues to put in the most effort in Iowa. He raised less than a million dollars for the third quarter, but he is keeping his spending low. Santorum may very well be the ‘under-the-radar’ candidate of this caucus season. Because of his lack of finances he’s been relying on grassroots campaigning. Moreover, he’s bee going to many of the smaller counties that other candidates have not. At last count Santorum has been to nearly 70 of Iowa’s 99 counties. That effort may not be showing up in the polls, but it might do well for him on caucus night.”
“We know that some Iowans have been sampling the candidates and hopping around quite frequently. First they were with Huckabee, then moved to Bachmann and then to Perry. As each of those campaigns have fallen off — at least Huckabee was by his own design — those tepid supporters are looking for a home. Some have gravitated to Cain, but others are moving toward Santorum. All Santorum needs to do is keep them, and not make any big mistakes. His base will grow.”
It’s difficult for our panelists to predict if a compressed caucus season helps or hinders Santorum, who is mostly considered a “slow burn” candidate. Obviously, he doesn’t have the support to win the caucuses if they were held tonight, but the vast majority of our panelists view him as someone who’s going to stick around and gather up the stragglers left behind when when the aforementioned ‘flavor of the month’ isn’t quite as tasty.
“Each day that Bachmann fails to go on offense, and Perry continues to implode, increases the chances he will be the surprise of these caucuses.”
For the first time in weeks, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann failed to garner enough support to be listed in our top five. She came in sixth for this edition, only a hair behind Santorum.
Bachmann appears to also be suffering from the syndrome of electability and, interestingly enough, her messaging in Iowa for caucus-goers not to “settle” seems to be somewhat backfiring.
“When [Bachmann] told us to support our values, I understood what she was saying. She wants us to support what we believe in our hearts, to vote and caucus based on our principles. But we already tried that with Huckabee and that got us McCain and we lost the White House. So if the choice is between supporting someone who is 100 percent in alignment with my values or someone who is 70 percent there, but the lesser candidate has a better chance of winning the White House, why wouldn’t I support that other candidate? When everything is said and done, I have to think that 70 percent is better than nothing.”
The panelists agree that Bachmann has a good ground organization in Iowa, but also that she has faltered in overall messaging and by making some big mistakes on the national stage. Retail politics has long been a hit-and-miss game for the Bachmann campaign in Iowa, with the team doing excellent at one event and being plagued by missteps at another. If there was a time for her to rise up, meet the challenge that she’s been presented, this is it.
“I don’t care about flowery speeches. I don’t care about what color her clothes are or if her make-up is perfect. I care about her passion, and I’ve not been seeing it lately. She was hit hard when Perry entered the race, but she has an opportunity to not only win those supporters back, but to show that titanium spine. But if she doesn’t really put herself out there over the next month, this campaign is a loss.”
43 Comments
Comment posted October 17, 2011 @ 2:20 pm
Glad to see ███ ████ at the top of the list. It seems to me that a lot of the voters who supported the flavor of the month candidates before are now flocking to ███ ████ who is the only candidate with a plan to save the economy and the country before it’s too late. You can read his detailed plan here http://c3244172.r72.cf0.rackcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/RestoreAmericaPlan.pdf
Pingback posted October 17, 2011 @ 2:23 pm
[...] to this whole “web-logging” craze, so to ease myself in before dropping knowledge like Bachmann dropping in the polls, these first couple of posts will focus on a topic most 21-year-old American males could rabble [...]
Comment posted October 17, 2011 @ 2:56 pm
Who writes the headlines?
Who cares about Last Place?
NEW Headline: “Ron Paul — surges to the top of our rankings”
Comment posted October 17, 2011 @ 9:02 pm
It’s weird how the headline is “Bachmann drops to last place…”, seems like this would be ‘Ron Paul wins Iowa 2012 presidential power rankings.’
I mean who even cares about who gets last place, or about michelle bachmann for that matter. This whole ignore Ron Paul thing the media has, is really getting annoying.
Comment posted October 17, 2011 @ 9:12 pm
Why is Ron Paul, the candidate who gets more than twice as much donations from active military service men and women also the least mentioned person in the mainstream media? Ron Paul gets first in this article, but the title references Michelle Bachmann?
Comment posted October 17, 2011 @ 10:04 pm
I agree that Ron Paul is pretty much black listed from reference in the media but this is the”Minnesota” Independent, ergo it’s expected for the emphasis of the article to be on a Minnesotan…no?
Comment posted October 17, 2011 @ 10:06 pm
That looks to be a fair assessment of the field as it stands.
Will be interesting to see if ███ ████’s economic plan specifics appeal to those who are still undecided.
Comment posted October 17, 2011 @ 10:28 pm
Ron Paul (RP) is the only candidate worth a flip. The others should just drop out.
Comment posted October 17, 2011 @ 10:57 pm
Hey I’m cool with the headline mentioning Michele’s fall from grace. That’s news, especially in Minnesota! Sure, ███ ████ gets the blackout treatment a lot but I don’t think this is one of those times.
Comment posted October 17, 2011 @ 10:57 pm
Michele Bachmann’s campaign was a lost cause from the very beginning. She had no substantial ideas other than for GOP talking points.
With the defection of so many staffers, it’s no wonder that Bachmann’s campaign is rudderless.
Comment posted October 17, 2011 @ 11:14 pm
I don’t get headlines anymore. Ron Paul wins! (Let’s talk about Michelle Bachman.)
I mean, she’s not even technically in last place. Newt Gingrich, Gary Johnson, Jon Huntsman, and even Fred Karger are duking that out.
Comment posted October 18, 2011 @ 6:14 am
Well, this is a Minnesota site, so Bachmann is the news. Sorry, but I think it’s funny that she’s fallen so hard so fast. God must have wanted her to (after all, He wanted her to run).
Comment posted October 18, 2011 @ 9:39 am
My question to the article writer:
Your statement: “Paul has been back in the state, and he is drawing good crowds. But, from what I’ve seen, these are the same people who have been showing up at Paul’s events for ages. There’s not much new blood here, which made a difference in 2008, but may not really matter in 2012.”
From what I have seen in the Iowa photos at the straw poll events, speeches, there are throngs of Paul supporters, with larger crowds each time….especially at the Ames Straw Poll. Are you saying that those hundreds are the same? Have you looked at your own numbers from the Straw Poll in 2007 for Paul?
Here are your 2007 Straw Poll Numbers
(note the number of Ron Paul votes and compare it to 2011)
Mitt Romney 4,516 31%.
Mike Huckabee 2,587 18.1%
Sam Brownback 2,192 15.3%
Tom Tancredo 1,961 13.7%
Ron Paul 1,305 9%
Tommy Thompson 1,009 7.3%
Now…here are the 2011 Results (note the “increase” of Paul Voters)
Place Candidate Votes Percentage
2011
1 Michele Bachmann[26] 4,823 28.6%
2 Ron Paul 4,671 27.7%
3 Tim Pawlenty 2,293 13.6%
4 Rick Santorum 1,657 9.8%
5 Herman Cain 1,456 8.6%
6 Rick Perry (write-in) 718 4.3%
7 Mitt Romney 567 3.4%
8 Newt Gingrich 385 2.3%
9 Jon Huntsman 69 0.4%
10 Thaddeus McCotter 35 0.2%
— Scattering 218 1.30%
Total 16,892 100%
From 2007 to 2011….his number grew by 250% + The number of voters that participated in the poll grew by a little less than 25%. So, …Ron Paul’s numbers have not only grown in Iowa since the 2008 election….by your count …they have EXPLODED!!!
In N.C. in March of this year, I attended a Ron Paul event at NC State Unv. there were probably 1,500 in attendance. They had chairs set up for 1,000, added 200 or so more chairs, and the remaining was standing room only. In 2007 when a similiar event was held at Duke Uni. there were less than half that number. So, these can’t be the same people. There is growing support for Ron Paul….everywhere.
I was in Minnesota in Sept. 2008 for Ron Paul’s “Rally For The Republic” event at the Target Event Center. The night he spoke there wasn’t an empty seat to be had…..there were probably 15,000 folks in attendence. Each of us at that event represented hundreds back home that couldn’t make the trip, but supported his message.
I knew then, as I know now….America is ready for his message.
Comment posted October 18, 2011 @ 12:57 pm
@Paul supporter
I was a the Rally for the Republic too. Drove cross country from Jersey, 19 hours straight. Only ever saw Ron Paul banners along the highways.
So far this election cycle I see Ron Paul bumper stickers and Ron Paul signs in Jersey…no one else.
Ron Paul is winning without media support; the entire debate has changed from 2008′s maintenance of the status quo to 2012′s discussion of auditing the fed and bringing our troops home. The media’s favorite person to juxtapose with Ron on foreign policy, #5 in this article, received a grand total of $500 from active military this quarter compared to Ron’s $60,800+. (which is more than all other candidates combined)
If Ron got the media attention he’s earned there would be no contest at all. Even this article is slanted against him.
Comment posted October 18, 2011 @ 3:41 pm
ahh the GOP clown car – full of haters,bigots,religious wackjobs….right wing wackjobs….. are the dems great – Nooooo, but way better then this mess of the GOP
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 12:15 am
“However, the caucuses being held January 3 could hurt him (Paul) because a lot of his young voters will still be on Christmas break.”
I really hope this will not be the case. Maybe its a message that is important to get out to the college age Iowa voters.
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 12:37 am
What a joke.. Ron Paul takes first place, and the headline is “Bachmann drops to bottom” ???
Wake up! Ron Paul is a serious contender even if journalist don’t understand what he’s talking about. Read some history, study some economic, WAKE UP, and then you might understand what he’s talking about.
Cheers,
Dustin
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 12:38 am
Ron Paul supporters would cut their vacation short to vote for him.
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 1:33 am
I hate to break it to you people. But the fact that Bachmann is last is actually a BIG story.
The fact that she won the Ames Straw Poll, and now a few months later is in last place is actually a pretty big story.
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 1:50 am
Of course the headline has to be about who holds last place. We can’t have potential voters reading a headline that says |||||||||| |||||||||||||||||| will likely win the Iowa caucuses, duh.
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 2:21 am
███ ████ took first place? Don’t you know posting things like this is heresy! Don’t give press to ███ ████, he might win then!
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 3:29 am
Why is Ron Paul’s name blacked out in some of these comments?
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 4:04 am
Ron Paul has support that will charge machine guns for him. Democrats and Progressives are switching parties to vote for an end to these endless wars and he might just shock the elite establishment that fears a maverick that will bring them to heel and make them answer for their robbery of the people.
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 5:38 am
The reason Dr. Ron Paul is ignored, and/or ridiculed by the media is the media is owned by corporations. The corporations are the establishment, or the lobby money that influences the law makers to ensure their greedy interests. The corporations fear Dr. Ron Paul. As well they should. When elected President Ron Paul will shine the bright spot light on their corrupt past, and expose them for raiding the public coffers. Both powers behind the Dems, and GOP shudder at that thought. Therefore, the media either ignores, or ridicules Dr. Ron Paul.
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 5:40 am
███ ████ is at the top of the list, good for him! I am glad to finally see someone who is not a career politician, and whom has always followed his principles, doing so well. I think he really could change this nation for the better.
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 6:01 am
This getting downright comical. The original headline read “Ron Paul surges to first place in Iowa 2012 Presidential power ranking”. Who decided to change it not even 4 hours later? Is this a common practice, to change headlines a couple hours in on all of your articles, or only articles that have Ron Paul in the headline? You should be ashamed of yourselves.
Its also shameful that you had to find as many ways possible to discredit the results of the power poll. Ron Paul nation is taking over because the people are sick and tired of crap like this and being manipulated into who and who not to vote for. Ron Paul voters are writing him in regardless of who gets the nomination so people can either get on board, or face four more years of Obama. Because without our 10%-15% of the vote, no one else will win. To us, the rest of the field is one and the same.
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 6:07 am
I’m glad to see Dr. Paul doing so well. It means all of us little guys who’ve been sign bombing, donating money and spreading the word have helped him along the way. Even in the face of the media blackout we’ve made sure his message has been heard. It does seem he’s truly starting to gain traction with the more moderate and mainstream voters. I mean even FOX News has had him on 3 times this week and 2 of the times was in the evening which is a big deal for Ron; even if last nights interview was a bunch of vipers chomping at the bit. In the end it will come down to delegates and I know for a fact Ron Paul is aware of this issue. I just hope he’s been able to formulate a plan and gets some people putting it on the line to become a delegate. I’m voting for the American people in 2012 so I’m voting for RON PAUL!!!!
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 6:14 am
Everybody knows that ||||||| |||||||||||||| is unelectable. The all-knowing media has said so. How would it look if they started running headlines abour ||||||| ||||||||||||| winning caucuses and primaries?
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 6:19 am
Why is Ron Pauls name blacked out and sensored in parts of the comments section? Very odd. The media continues to try and ignore and belittle the best and most popular candidate for president, Mr. Ron Paul! He is the best thing to happen to this country in the last 50 years! Ron Paul for President 2012!
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 7:06 am
Joel, the blacking out of ███ ████’s name is in response to the media blackout. It is simply a way for us to make people curious as to who ███ ████ is and what he stands for, because the internet has nearly ALL of the information about ███ ████, whereas the tv, radio and newspapers seem to be allergic to him.
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 7:07 am
RON PAUL and JESSE VENTURA oh what a ticket!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 7:14 am
I understand the position that Michelle Bachmann, being a Minnesota native, falling from “grace” deserves mention in the headline of this article, but I don’t understand why any other major developments for the other candidates aren’t mentioned. Being a journalism student, what would’ve been the problem with a headline such as “Bachmann drops to last place; Ron Paul becomes GOP front-runner”?
I don’t want to sound like the broken record that is still asking why the media ignores Ron Paul, but I really see this lack of covering a predominate political figure in the major media outlets as not only irresponsibly, but very telling of the ethical soundness of those outlets themselves. It seems that this country and, no offense to this particular outlet, this news network are only providing a guilty conscience as to the censoring of any pertinent news involving Ron Paul. I understand that, for many traditional republicans, his policies and ideals are a bit more solidly founded, as well as his particular brand of conservative philosophy being inherently self-destructive to corporations that are operating under shady ethic codes, but how could any outlet call themselves honest, forth-coming, or unbiased if they are unwilling to afford the factual information as it is shown?
A perfect example of this was illustrated by “Paul supporter”, whose posted time shows 9:39a.m. with the very facts presented within this affiliation. How could these facts be so readily available and yet the news as it is presented contradicts them? If an organization wants to really see the truth of the matter, they could just as simply put forth half the effort in reporting news involving Ron Paul as they do in reserving his name from breaking and/or profound news reports. Fifty percent of the effort and man power, turned in the opposite direction on all accounts (all avenues of the major media) would not only rocket Ron Paul to the forefront of the GOP presidential hopefuls, they could ensure his success in defeating President Obama and solidify the conservative agenda for all Americans.
I do not expect any kind of response, or even a retort, but if Lynda Waddington, her editors, or her affiliates truly contemplate the message that I present, perhaps our nation still has hope. Ron Paul doesn’t only have the support of his long-lived core, he has developed a new generation of supporters consisting of new-republicans from the echo-boom generation in addition to many of the independents and moderates. His message, although dissected and developed for many of the other candidates, is to rid our nation of its’ “status quo” and replace it with the core principles of not only the conservative philosophy, but also the integrity of the U.S. Constitution.
Thank you for reading.
http://www.facebook.com/b.gammey626
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 7:44 am
Your headline is a joke. Ron Paul Surges to 1st. Journalistic integrity is an oxymoron.
Pingback posted October 27, 2011 @ 8:03 am
[...] http://minnesotaindependent.com/9007…power-rankings Ron is ranked 1st! HighMtnSkier likes this. __________________ Quote: [...]
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 8:35 am
Dr. ███ ████ for president 2012! He is the true champion of the constitution!
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 9:02 am
This is just one of many examples in how Ron Paul is blacked out in the media. Thanks Lynda Waddington!
Pingback posted October 27, 2011 @ 10:31 am
[...] Click here for the full report. [...]
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 11:33 am
We predicted it, didn’t we? Even when ███ ████ wins events, the media finds a way to cover a different candidate instead.
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 1:33 pm
███ ████ 2012! I agree, this whole ███ ████ blackout by the media is getting VERY annoying. It isn’t even subtle anymore
Comment posted October 27, 2011 @ 5:21 pm
I have read the 40 or so comments above. I am pretty much agreeing with all. It was pointed out that the caucuses were on the Christmas vacation. Is there not an absentee ballot for a Caucasus vote?
Comment posted October 28, 2011 @ 4:35 am
We believe the reason that Ron Paul is left out of the headlines so he does NOT Trend!! What say the rest of you?
Ron Paul 2012
“RESTORE AMERICA NOW”
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