“In my district, I don’t sense racism, and that’s why I’m thankful that hopefully this will send a national signal across our country that America is not a nation made up of racists. … On the same hand, I hope that the national media will not confuse disagreement with Obama’s policy positions with being consumed [by] racism.”

She also expressed gladness that voters didn’t “let the media intervene” in the race she won Tuesday for her second term representing Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District and said her goal is to join the House of Representatives’ Ways and Means Committee. Qualifications? “My husband and I were Joe the Plumbers,” she told Politico, in reference to the Christian therapy business she and her husband started.

Another way Paulsen’s ahead: KSTP gave Paulsen’s campaign an early preview of the poll results, according to Joe Bodell at Minnesota Campaign Report. Citing unnamed sources, Bodell writes that KSTP revealed the poll results to Paulsen but didn’t tell Madia until Madia’s staff, having heard heard Paulsen’s campaign had the information, called KSTP to ask if they could also see the new numbers too.

Madia spokesman Dan Pollock wouldn’t comment except to say that the results contradict the anecdotal evidence the campaign is seeing on the ground. MnIndy is awaiting comment from KSTP. Dillon campaign manager Bruce Anderson tells the Minnesota Independent that Dillon didn’t get a head’s up; Anderson learned the poll results by watching the news. When told of the Minnesota Campaign Report story, he said he’s skeptical of anything sinister and anyway doesn’t see a big advantage for Paulsen in hearing poll results early.

Anderson did have a problem with Survey USA’s previous poll, however, in which Dillon’s name wasn’t part of the candidate preference question. (”Some other candidate” was the wording instead.) His complaint to Survey USA prompted the firm to admit its mistake and offer to do another poll using Dillon’s name and without charging KSTP, Anderson said.

The re-do poll shows a sudden swing in a race that has looked effectively tied in previous polls, including a Survey USA poll that came out just a day before the polling began for this one. Survey USA suggests Paulsen’s lead might be due to a TV ad showing Madia with darker skin than the son of Indian immigrants really has. But if so, the effect would seem to arise more from widespread news reports about the ad’s darkening technique rather than the National Republican Congressional Committee’s ad itself. The NRCC released its ad a full week before the first of Survey USA’s pair of back-to-back polls last week.

The new 3rd District survey results were ready on Halloween along with a separate survey showing a tie in Minnesota’s 6th District race between Republican U.S. Rep. Michelle Bachmann and Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg. But KSTP waited until yesterday to announce the news along with results from two other new Survey USA polls: a dead heat for U.S. Senate and a remarkably small 3-point deficit in the state for Republican presidential candidate U.S. Sen. John McCain. That result led Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com to observe that “SurveyUSA’s polling in Minnesota has been very, very weird all year… SurveyUSA does not have a Republican lean in general, but in Minnesota, it has consistently had a huge one.”

Survey USA seems to have taken to heart criticism of earlier 3rd District polls in which the pollster posed the candidate preference differently. This time the question matches the firm’s Oct. 6–7 poll question, with each candidate, including Dillon, identified by name and party. Survey USA’s analysis also finds the pollster apparently responding to criticism that it isn’t trying to count Minnesotans who are likely to vote but will register at the polls:

Respondents for this survey were chosen at random from Minnesota registered voter lists. Minnesota allows same-day registration, and any in Minnesota who on Election Day 2008 register and vote for the first time are undercounted here. If same-day registrants disproportionately favor one candidate, that candidate’s support will be understated here, but that is just one source of possible error when polling a contest as volatile as this one now is.

Here’s Survey USA on the possible influence of the NRCC skin-darkened ad in the 3rd District race:

Coincidence? Or Correlation? Women, Whites Look Twice at ‘Darkened’ Madia in Minnesota’s 6th District … In three previous SurveyUSA polls, the Democrat and Republican were separated by 3 or fewer points. Then, ads appeared with photographs of Madia that may have been altered to darken his skin color. It is impossible to know whether the ads had much to do, or nothing to do, with these newest poll numbers: Madia’s support among whites has dropped from 45% on 10/08/08 to 39% today. Madia’s support among women has dropped from 46% on 10/08/08 to 41% today. Madia’s support among Independents has dropped from 43% earlier this week to 34% today. When all of the demographic subgroups are combined… 42% of voters now have an unfavorable opinion of Madia, almost twice the 23% Madia unfavorable number that SurveyUSA found on 08/29/08.

After naming him in the question posed in a poll earlier this month, Survey USA oddly dropped a direct reference to Dillon when it polled 642 likely voters Oct. 26–27. (The pollster hasn’t yet responded to MnIndy’s request to explain why references to third party support have been inconsistent in its three surveys of the 3rd District.) If you get an anti-Dillon mailing, please share it with MnIndy.

UPDATE: Joe Bodell at Minnesota Campaign Report has this high-contrast scan of the mailer and speculates writes that it’s being sent to Democrats. His theory goes that the NRCC might be using reverse psychology (if “reverse” is quite the right term in a three-way race) to draw Dems to Dillon by chargin him with being too far left politically.

Also today, two local print news outlets made endorsements — one for Paulsen and one for Madia. See the video and read excerpts after the jump.

Madia for Congress: “Check It Out”

From the Eden Prairie News:

In the Third District, Independence Party candidate David Dillon and DFL candidate Ashwin Madia both offer good ideas and are excellent candidates, but Erik Paulsen gets the nod, for his consistent service to the community, his 14 years of experience and his record. Paulsen has spearheaded initiatives supporting doing business with India and encouraging the study of Mandarin Chinese in Minnesota school districts, showing a global focus. He has pledged to work in a bipartisan way. Dillon raises the hope that reform could come to Washington in the form of independent voices not beholden to a party or lobby. We hope to hear more from him, especially on solutions for economic and immigration issues. All candidates should have a “humor” section on their Web sites, as he does.

From the ECM Editorial Board’s endorsement carried in the Coon Rapids Herald:

It was apparent from those interviews that all three [including Independence Party candidate David Dillon] seem to want to continue the Frenzel-Ramstad mold, but in our view Madia, a former Republican, offers the best hope that this tradition of moderation and bipartisanship will continue. … Indeed, Madia talks like a deficit hawk and says he is willing to work with both sides, including conservative bluedog Democrats and moderate Republicans, to achieve a balance budget. … But Madia has a unique understanding of the situation in Iraq because he served a tour of duty in that country as a member of the U.S. Marine Corps. A lawyer by profession, his role was to help the Iraqis put in place a new legal system. … Change is needed in Congress and while it was close call, Madia is a better fit for the 3rd Congressional District than Paulsen.

That was the list on which Minnesota’s 3rd District race to replace U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad used to appear, but now it’s at No. 29, one notch behind that upstart competitive contest next door in the 6th District made famous by U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s funny comments and DFL challenger Elwyn “Cash Magnet” Tinklenberg’s funny name. The relevant quote, with links, after the jump.

29. Minnesota’s 3rd district (R): Democrat Ashwin Madia appears to have edged ahead of state Sen. Erik Paulsen (R) in this race in the suburbs of the Twin Cities. In a neutral year, Paulsen would likely win. But Madia’s grassroots campaign, his service in Iraq and the strong year shaping up for Democrats in the state make him a slight favorite.

28. Minnesota’s 6th district (R): Note to vulnerable incumbents: Don’t go on national TV two weeks before an election. Just don’t do it.

A fat cat lights up in the new DCCC ad

While the country turned its fickle eyes to Minnesota’s suddenly compelling 6th Congressional District contest, the race for the state’s 3rd District didn’t stop being hot. Over the last two days, both major parties’ congressional committees unveiled new TV ads. Big male guns vouched for the Republican candidate, state Rep. Erik Paulsen, and big female guns tried to widen a gender gap in favor of DFLer Ashwin Madia — while heaping derision on another female office-holder, state Rep. Michele Bachmann. All this and more, with video and details about tonight’s candidate debate in Edina, after the jump.

Candidate debate tonight

Independence Party candidate David Dillon will join Paulsen and Madia on stage at Edina High School’s Fick Auditorium tonight, Wednesday, Oct. 22, at 8 p.m. for a debate sponsored by Debate Minnesota. Click here for directions to the event at 6754 Valleyview Road, Edina.

Both major parties’ congressional committees on TV again

When last heard from in the 3rd District race, the National Republican Campaign Committee was canceling reservations for TV ad time one week after the next. Now they’re back in the game with a new ad called “Running to Raise Taxes” that bashes Madia on Paulsen’s behalf. The NRCC shelled out $96,500 for spots this week on KMSP and KSTP, and another $350,000 for spots next week through Election Day on those stations plus WCCO, according to MPR’s TV ad database.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee continues to roll out TV ads attacking Paulsen. The latest is called “Our Tax Dollars for Their Cash Bonuses.”

Paulsen’s ad slammed

Meanwhile, the Paulsen campaign’s own new ad earned a D grade in a “Truth Test” evaluation by KSTP’s Tom Hauser, who called its claims “misleading” and “false.” Ironically, Hauser cites distortions in how Paulsen mixes and matches quotes and images from harsh evaluations Hauser himself gave earlier to ads produced by Madia and the DCCC.  He also calls out Paulsen for quoting a Madia statement on taxes out of context, as MnPublius caught early on.

Men for Paulsen, Women for Madia

Many prominent hands gripped podiums on Monday in separate press events for Paulsen and Madia. Perhaps as striking as the speakers’ prominence was the sharp gender split that mirrors a gender gap that’s growing in recent polls. Gov. Tim Pawlenty and U.S. Rep. John Kline were part of a seven-man team at the state Capitol vouching for Paulsen’s record on veterans. Across town in Bloomington, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Minnesota House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher were kicking off (somewhat belatedly?) a campaign called Women for Madia. The boy-girl split on those two panels reflected a gender gap in voter support for Madia and Paulsen revealed in the latest SurveyUSA poll: Men back Paulsen by a margin of 51–37 percentage points, while women favor Madia by a margin of 51–40 percentage points. It’s a gap that’s grown slightly since an earlier survey by the same organization in late August, and possibly could have widened further with Pelosi’s visit — had her criticism of Bachmann not eclipsed the Women for Madia message. 

(The Republican male lineup is on view in a Paulsen campaign video. MPR has a whopping nine audio clips from Monday’s dueling press events.)

And as if on cue, NARAL Pro-Choice America declared this to be “Ashwin Madia Week,” one of a series of “Race of the Week” fundraising and attention-raising efforts. Here’s how a spokesperson described it in a statement sent to the Minnesota Independent:

NARAL Pro-Choice America will drop a total of four mail pieces and our volunteers will make calls in support of pro-choice Ashwin Madia. Madia’s record on a woman’s right to choose is far superior to that of his opponent’s and we look forward to working with him when he becomes a congressman. NARAL Pro-Choice America will do everything we can to make sure that’s possible. While we can’t confirm the amount of donations we drive to a campaign with our blog posts, we can confirm that NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC has sent the maximum amount allowed by the FEC to his campaign. Our PAC is funded by our members so they pay close attention to our endorsements and “Race of the Week” picks. Our political director routinely receives calls from members and activists about candidates and races to support throughout the country and we always make sure to mention Ashwin Madia’s race.

Speaker of the U.S. House Nancy Pelosi (shown), U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Minnesota House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher will kick off an apparently new Women for Madia campaign in Bloomington Monday morning. Photo: house.gov

Two indications that the tight 3rd Congressional District race remains in the nation’s crosshairs, even as U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s antics in the 6th District grab headlines.

First, the big guns keep coming: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., whose very name and title are enough to spur derisive jeers at Republican rallies, will campaign in person with DFL 3rd District candidate Ashwin Madia today. (Republican House Minority Leader John Boehner visited the state on Paulsen’s behalf last week.)

And the national media continue to turn attention to the Twin Cities’ western suburbs. (Today it’s a profile of the contest with focus on Madia in the Washington Post — whose Chris Cillizza, keeper of The Fix blog, on Friday abruptly and inexplicably left the 3rd District race off his list of the 25 races for U.S. House where parties are most likely to lose seats, to the consternation of commenters.)

But in a sign that the spectacle in the 6th is drawing focus and donation dollars, Madia released a statement this morning, saying, “Bachmann’s comments represent the very worst in American politics.”

‘Disturbing’ Paulsen ad
Over the weekend, Republican state Sen. Erik Paulsen released a new ad called “Disturbing” that stays warm and fuzzy for about two seconds before turning on the attack graphics and low-register voice-over delivering (disputed) warnings about who Madia will tax and how often he has lied about it:

Three-way debate
KSTP-TV hosted a debate with all three candidates Friday evening. Here is the full hourlong video:

Dillon speaks!
Earlier on Friday, Independence Party candidate David Dillon took his turn in the U of M Humphrey Institute’s series of noontime events with the 3rd District contenders. (Madia and Paulsen appeared earlier in the week.) Here is a liveblog of the Dillon event, courtesy of the Humphrey Institute’s Smart Politics blog, which also profiled the race over the weekend. And here is audio from Dillon’s appearance, courtesy of MPR’s Polinaut blog (if audio player doesn’t appear below, visit the Polinaut page:

Democrat Ashwin Madia led the way with a figure tantalizingly close to $1 million, as his campaign  already previewed: $996,619. Madia reported a nearly identical amount of cash on hand ($995,003) as of Sept. 30. His Republican opponent, state Rep. Erik Paulsen’s report shows the Republican’s congressional campaign took in $840,000 and has $1.1 million cash on hand.

Meanwhile, David Dillon’s Independence Party campaign raised $109,000 from July 1 to Sept. 30. Dillon also had almost the same amount of cash on hand (almost $100,000) — although $100,000 of that came from his own wallet in what he described to the Minnesota Independent as a loan. As a proportion of Dillon’s total war chest, it puts him among the top 10 self-funding candidates in the country.

TV spending nears $6 million

A great place to see where all that money is going is Minnesota Public Radio’s (MPR) new online TV ad spending  database, which shows that in the 3rd District race, candidates and outside groups have so far shelled out $5.8 million for TV this election cycle — that’s nearly a third of what is being spent on metro-area TV ads in Minnesota’s record-setting U.S. Senate race ($19.5 million); it’s also $1.5 million more than is being spent on Twin Cities TV for the presidential race ($4.3 million).

Reporter Tom Scheck tells MnIndy that within news cycle constraints, MPR intends to make the rounds of six broadcast stations (plus Comcast cable) to update the database with the latest revisions and additions to political ad buys.

Dillon hits the airwaves

One thing that won’t show up on MPR’s sweet new toy is Dillon’s 60-second radio spot, which is airing on Clear Channel stations KEEY-FM (K102), KFAN-AM and KTCZ (Cities 97) through the end of the month — and probably right up to the election, campaign manager Bruce Anderson tells MnIndy.

The ad opens with Dillon intoning, “Man, am I sick of the political ads,” and ends with a silly kicker in the rapid-fire disclaimer section: “Images in mirror are closer than they may appear.” Hear it on one of those fine channels, at Dillon’s campaign Web site or here.

Marine-on-St. CroixMarine, Minnesota

The latest TV ad from the Minnesota congressional campaign of Democrat Ashwin Madia — which intercuts Madia addressing the camera (in a suit, outside the University of Minnesota armory) with stock footage of Marines drilling – has drawn a sharp critique from U.S. Rep. John Kline, R-Minn. Under the headline “Congressman John Kline Blasts Ashwin Madia For Using Uniformed Marines To Advance His Political Ambitions,” the Republican Party of Minnesota on Tuesday released this statement from Kline:

“As a retired member of the United States Marine Corps, I am outraged that Ashwin Madia would exploit uniformed Marines to advance his political ambitions. By displaying footage of the elite U.S. Marine Corps Silent Drill Team in his campaign ads, Madia implies an endorsement of his candidacy that is inaccurate and inappropriate. He should immediately pull down the ad and issue an apology to the drill team and the brave men and women of the U.S. Marine Corps.”

To which Madia responded with this statement:

“I am proud to have served in the Marines and in Iraq. Once a Marine, always a Marine, and I am proud, and will always be proud, to stand by my fellow Marines. Through my service in the Marines, I learned team work and discipline. We need more of that in Congress. I am talking about those needs in my new ad and on the campaign trail. In these challenging times, Minnesotans are looking for leadership and vision from the people they send to Washington — the leadership and vision necessary to get our country back on track. I will continue to communicate my positive message of change to the people of the Third District.”

In response to an inquiry from MnIndy, Eric Schmeltzer at the Madia-backing veterans’ organization VoteVets.org — which late Wednesday issued a statement calling Kline’s attack a smear (”Shame on Erick Paulsen fo rusing others to hurl baseless smears against an honorable war veteran”) — laid it out like this:

Here’s the deal. You cannot use a troop in uniform if he is on active duty, and it’s a picture you specifically took for a campaign ad. You can use stock photos and footage if you like as long as you don’t use it in a way that makes it seem that troop is endorsing your campaign (though it could cause headaches if the person in the stock footage is dead or for your opponent or something). But if you contact Lieutenant Smith and say “Hey, can you send us a picture of you in uniform so we can use it and say you’re endorsing our campaign?” that would not be kosher, if he is on active duty. Active duty soldiers cannot take part in any partisan politics, period. If he’s a reservist, or separated from the service, then it’s a bit less of a problem to use a picture of him from when he was on active duty.

Michael Brodkorb, a campaign staffer for state Rep. Erik Paulsen, Madia’s Republican opponent, opines on his blog:

Did the uniformed Marines in Madia’s campaign ad give their permission for their images to be “used” for Madia’s political purposes? I don’t know, but it’s very unlikely. Both Kline and Madia have appropriately used pictures of themselves in uniform in campaign advertisements for biographical purposes. But Kline raises a very good point about the appropriateness of Madia’s TV ad. The impression from Madia’s ad is that the Marines are endorsing and performing for Madia.

Joe Bodell at Minnesota Campaign Report takes issue with Kline’s use of his own uniformed image in his TV ads:

Aaron Landry at MnPublius grabbed the photo below from Paulsen’s campaign Web site. Whether it’s an infraction depends on several factors, including the active-duty status of the person in uniform. But there’s no question the photo flagrantly violates at least one universal law … of photo composition. Never stick a pole into your subject’s head.

The other two are free media: a three-minute YouTube video posted by the Paulsen campaign that features testimonials from veterans who support the state representative’s congressional bid, and a four-minute interview that Fox 9 conducted with Paulsen as part of its morning news show… which was followed minutes later by the new Madia ad. (Independence Party candidate David Dillon will appear on Fox 9 on 7:30 a.m. Tuesday and Madia will appear on 7:30 a.m. Friday).

Outside help for Paulsen in the form of new ads and ad buys from the National Republican Congressional Committee has vanished, at least for now, with NRCC-reserved time at local stations remaining only for the campaign’s final week.

Here is the fresh crop of new video in the 3rd Congressional District race, with the exception of Paulsen’s interview on Fox 9 this morning, which we’ll add if it becomes available. In the meantime, there’s an transcribed excerpt below.

Madia for Congress: “Discipline”

DCCC: “Career Politician Erik Paulsen: We Can’t Afford”

Paulsen for Congress: “Veterans Support Erik Paulsen for Congress”

Paulsen on Fox 9 (transcribed excerpt):

PAULSEN [responding to question on the national debt]: …These guys [in Congress] are literally just on a bipartisan spending spree. And we just need an approach that’s going to be live-within-your-means, what-can-we-afford. I don’t want my four daughters to be saddling this national debt. And that’s a real concern.

FOX 9: Yeah, no parent wants that, that’s for sure. Now, you don’t want to expand government health care. You want market-driven solutions. Does it trouble you that each year the marketplace leaves more and more of us uninsured?

PAULSEN: Well, we’ve done some good things in Minnesota, even on a bipartisan basis. I’ve gotten some recognition and awards for that. But I think we have to do the same thing at the federal level. We need more competition to bring down costs. I think we also have to employ health information technology for e-prescribing electronical [sic] medical records. That’s how we can get into the next century to save medical costs. And I think we have to reimburse on a different model, so you’re not just reimbursing providers and physicians on the number of procedures they do, but on the quality of the procedures they do. So we’re focusing on preventative medicine. That’s how we’re ultimately going to save money and more people will be able to be insured.