538.com

RSSRSS 2.0 Feed

Nate Silver: Why you should ignore exit polls

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com published a great piece this morning about why you shouldn’t waste your time trying to google up exit poll leaks: They’re always wrong.
Some of the reasons (there are 10 in all):
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known [...]