Rep. Tim Walz and Allen Quist

Allen Quist has been largely out of the political spotlight for roughly a decade. But according to a recent report on Bluestem Prairie, the conservative Republican is mulling a run at U.S. Rep. Tim Walz in the First Congressional District.

Reached at his home in St. Peter, Quist certainly didn’t shoot down the possibility. “I’m not ready to comment on that,” he told the Minnesota Independent. “If I’m in a position to comment, it won’t be very long. That’s a big if.”

Quist served three terms in the state House and was the GOP-endorsed candidate for governor in 1994, but was handily beaten by Arne Carlson in the primary election. A darling of cultural conservatives, Quist sought the Republican endorsement again in 1998, but dropped out before the state convention in favor of Norm Coleman. Since then he’s worked with EdWatch, a conservative advocacy group that has championed home schooling and criticized public school curricula, and taught at Bethany Lutheran College.

Walz is currently serving his second term, winning re-election last year by 30 percentage points. The contest doesn’t make the cut for most lists of potentially competitive House races for 2010. Historically, the southern Minnesota district has leaned Republican, and the Cook Partisan Voting Index rates it +1 for the GOP, but Democrats have enjoyed considerable electoral success in recent years. Walz initially won the seat by knocking off six-term Republican incumbent Gil Gutknecht.

There are no announced challengers for Walz yet. Another name that’s generated a lot of discussion: state Sen. Julie Rosen.

Steve Perkins, chairman of the GOP in the first district, says that others are eyeing the race as well, but he declines to name potential challengers. “Clearly there’s a lot of interest in it,” he says. “We’re certainly going to have a number of very strong, electable candidates. Allen may be one of those candidates.”

Perkins argues that Walz is out of step with the district on a number of issues, including his support for cap-and-trade legislation, the federal stimulus package and health-care reform. He doesn’t believe that the Democratic incumbent’s landslide victory in 2008 means that he’s not vulnerable.

“Why don’t you call on Gil Gutknecht and ask about winning by wide margins?” he laughs. “The horizon in 2010 is going to be infinitely different than what it was in 2008.”

Update: Quist officially announces his candidacy (11/20/09)

The background: Pawlenty turned down an invitation earlier this month to meet with a bipartisan group of current and former Minnesota leaders at the Capitol seeking a way out of the state’s budget woes. Instead he counter-programmed his own summit at a corporate HQ in Eden Prairie to toot the state economy’s horn.

So on his Sept. 18 show, Pawlenty sneered at the capitol summit, telling the WCCO audience “with the exception of Al Quie, there were no current Republicans there.” That dig seemed meant especially for former Gov. Arne Carlson, and it ushered in a war of words between the two.

On today’s show, Pawlenty took a swipe at the next guy who crossed him by attending the wrong summit: former House Speaker David Jennings. T-Paw railed against school districts that complained recently about delayed payments from the state, then reached back to recall the gall of an unnamed Minneapolis Public Schools superintendent who advocated for the district when “he knew — knew! – there were 900 empty classrooms.”

Jennings led the Minneapolis schools at a time when critics alleged the district wasted money by maintaining schools in which there were 600 or even 800 empty classrooms. (The 900 figure seems new, if the bile behind it is not.)

It’s like an Agatha Christie whodunit where guests at a country estate keep dropping. The rest of the attendees at the Minnesota Leadership Summit better watch their backs on future Friday mornings.

Elsewhere in Minnesota headlines this morning …

ST. PAUL: GOP guv candidates talk cuts. State budget would shrink to 2004 level, welfare would play hard to get. [Associated Press]

ST. PAUL: DFL guv candidates talk taxes. We’ll raise ‘em. So? [Minnesota Public Radio]

ST. PAUL: Mayors want say in guv race. The Coalition for Greater Minnesota Cities may run ads on issues like state-aid cuts. [Associated Press]

ST. PAUL: GOP lodges complaint against St. Paul mayor. Chris Coleman is running for governor off the books, say party leaders. [City Hall Scoop]

ST. PAUL: Pawlenty says state budget not looking so bad. As long as the next governor will stick by his unallotments. [Minnesota Public Radio]

ST. PAUL: Pawlenty needs advice on economy to run for prez. Here are three guys who would be just right. [St. Paul Pioneer Press]

Molnau at 2008 NLGA conference. Photo: MN North Star

Carol Molnau, Minnesota’s lieutenant governor and former transportation commissioner, has been re-elected chair of the National Lieutenant Governors Association’s (NLGA) Midwest Region.

From the official state press release:

“Lieutenant Governor Molnau was selected by a bi-partisan group of her peers from every region in the nation as a leader among her colleagues,” said NLGA Executive Director Julia Hurst.

“I am honored that my colleagues designated me to serve in NLGA leadership this year,” Lieutenant Governor Molnau said. “I look forward to working with them and share best practices that will benefit the constituents of Minnesota and other states.”

The state Senate stripped her of her commissionership following the I-35W bridge collapse, but Molnau envisions a political future for herself, even after Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s decision not to run for re-election.

She may run for governor or Congress in 2010 and in the meantime remains NLGA chair of all she surveys. Besides Minnesota, the Midwest region includes Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin.

Including Molnau, five of the Midwest’s lieutenant governors are women, more than in any other region. Nationally, there are 12 women among the 55 lieutenant governors serving U.S. states and territories, with Molnau and Indiana Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman the only Republican women.

In the only two lieutenant-governor elections this year, in New Jersey and Virginia, both Democratic Party candidates are women (and both are Jewish). In fact, the tally of female lieutenant governors is guaranteed to increase because the Republican candidate in New Jersey is also a woman.

That’s unusual in most states but wouldn’t be so in Minnesota, where the last five gubernatorial elections have involved two or more women as major-party running mates, and the last five lieutenant governors have been female.

Marlene Johnson, elected on the Democratic ticket with Rudy Perpich in 1982 and 1986, was the first woman to hold the post. After Johnson came Joanell Dyrstad (Republican, elected with Arne Carlson in 1990); Joanne Benson (Republican, also elected with Carlson, in 1994); Mae Schunk (Reform Party, later Independence Party, elected with Jesse Ventura); and Molnau (elected with Tim Pawlenty in 2002 and 2004).

By constitutional mandate, redistricting takes place every 10 years: Each state’s legislature must redraw the lines that define congressional and legislative districts. But it rarely happens the same way twice; when politicians fail, judges step in to finish the job.

Stakes are especially high in Minnesota, as the state may lose a congressional seat after the 2010 U.S. Census reapportionment. And if Minnesota loses a congressional seat, the redistricting process will decide whether the district of Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann or another incumbent will be relegated to the history books.

The bill, carried by Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller (DFL-Minneapolis), takes up recommendations from a group led by former Vice President Walter Mondale and former Gov. Arne Carlson.

The Mondale-Carlson group (technically, the Advisory Board for the Minnesota Redistricting Project of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs at the University of Minnesota) proposed saving time and sweat by getting judges to draw congressional- and legislative-district lines before legislators themselves get involved. The reverse sequence — Legislature, then courts — is responsible for the state’s current political lines.

But some who were among the closest to the work of reshaping Minnesota’s political boundaries last time around seem to think the existing system worked pretty well.

Redistricting reform got nowhere last session, but this year Pogemiller pushed through his bill by a vote of 39–28 in the final days before the state Legislature adjourned. Next stop: the House’s Committee on State and Local Government Operations Reform, Technology and Elections, which could hold discussions on the topic before considering the bill itself when the legislative session resumes in February, according to legislative staff.

UPDATE: In an email, Committee Chair state Rep. Gene Pelowski promises that the committee “will be looking at redistricting over the summer and this bill will be included.”

Reform advocates, led by Mondale and Carlson, have argued (pdf) that the current system is “broken” — badly enough that it won’t do for the next round of redistricting after the 2010 census.

The new system would create a commission of five retired appeals court judges to make the first maps of new district boundaries based on the latest census data. The majority and minority caucuses from both the House and the Senate would appoint one judge each. The four judges would together choose a fifth to join them.

Their first plan would go to the Legislature for an up-or-down vote — no changes allowed. If that fails to pass, the commission would work up a second plan, which again would be subject to an up-or-down vote by the Legislature. Only if the second plan fails to pass would legislators have a chance at concocting their own plan.

Musical chairs

Demographic estimates predict the count in Minnesota may fall about 2,000 people short of the number needed to retain the state’s current complement of eight congressional districts. If that happens, the question of which party’s incumbent loses a seat in Congress will fall to the state’s redistricting process — and will likely make the decennially debilitating battles over creating new legislative boundaries look like cake walks.

So the rules for what could become a titanic game of musical chairs matter deeply. And exactly who applies those rules depends on who wins the race for governor next year. If Democrats retain control of the state Legislature but lack veto-proof majorities in both houses, then a Republican in the governor’s mansion keeps things complicated, as both the state’s legislative and executive branches must approve a new plan.

On the other hand, if a Democrat succeeds Gov. Tim Pawlenty, the struggle for the DFL becomes one of drawing the most advantageous plan possible under constitutional requirements.

The last time the state took on this task, after the 2000 census, it was not simply a matter for one party, or even two. For the first time, redistricting was a three-way partisan game: The Independence Party’s Jesse Ventura was governor, Republicans held the House, and the DFL controlled the Senate.

Each assigned a staffer to draw a redistricting plan. (Wielding somewhat less influence were the minority caucuses from each legislative body, whose redistricting staffers included one Michael Brodkorb for the Senate Republicans.)

Veterans of the trenches

Over the past few weeks, the Minnesota Independent interviewed key staffers from each party as well as the man who ran redistricting for the state Legislature: Peter Wattson, now secretary of the Senate.

All had a hand in drawing — or, in Wattson’s case, evaluating — maps that eventually got redrawn by the courts. But all seem satisfied by the result.

Wattson said the redistricting process last time was “pretty orderly, actually.”

Greg Peppin, who drew redistricting maps for the Republican House majority, recalls that “everyone felt that the plan was pretty fair.”

Vic Thorstenson, Peppin’s counterpart for Senate Democrats, said: “We were pretty happy with the court’s plan.”

Joe Mansky, who represented Ventura and the Independence Party, concurred: “We were pretty happy with the outcome,” he said.

That doesn’t mean all four oppose Pogemiller’s plan. Thorstenson and Wattson still work at the Capitol and wouldn’t give their opinions on the reform proposal.

Peppin, now a political consultant, said “the process is just steeped in politics” and reckons that a judicial panel assigned first crack at drawing maps “will not be able to do it better than the Legislature.”

Mansky supports the plan, in part because it hearkens back to a commission Ventura formed for the same purpose.

Popularity and obscurity

In his current role as elections manager for Ramsey County, Mansky became a familiar face this year to the dedicated followers of the Norm Coleman/Al Franken Senate race, due to long hours he spent on the witness stand of the recent election-contest trial.

But seven years ago, the trio toiled over their redistricting maps in relative obscurity — outside of the state Capitol, that is.

“We mapmakers were very popular,” Peppin recalls. Legislators of every stripe were eager to know how things were shaping up — particularly for their home districts. “There was a reason for changing the locks and giving us all fresh keys,” he said.

Thorstenson’s recalls his home-away-from-home during those days the same way: “I was in a room at the State Capitol that even the janitors weren’t allowed to go into.”

Coming: Scenarios past mapmakers see for the redistricting to come

The projected winner: North Carolina. Perhaps payback for a state that was crucial to Obama’s electoral victory?

But who’s behind it? … many are unsure — but they’re trying to find out. Diction is being dissected, typefaces tracked, prose pounced, and links looked at hard.

The Scoop provides some sleuthing of its own (absent the medallion-hunt’s hints in rhyme). But the Minnesota Independent was already on the case with a novel approach: asking mystery blogger “Scorned in Saint Paul” who he or she is.

I sent “Scorned in Saint Paul” an inquiring e-mail after MyMayorIsCheatingOnMe.com linked to a MnIndy post about Coleman’s efforts to keep his staff’s budget communications private. Here’s the reply I got:

I have been involved in community issues for several years and am very familiar with the Mayor and his staff as I have had numerous interactions with them through my involvement over these issues. I am appalled at the mismanagement of our city by someone who was elected on a progressive platform. Actually, any platform for that matter.

Chris Coleman has a history of being vindictive and I don’t want this to be about me (and also for me, my current employment negates my ability to be public). I want this to be about the issues I am talking about at the blog. All across St. Paul, from all sorts of groups, there is a lot of private discontent with Mayor Coleman.  This blog is about starting a public dialogue about the conversations that are already, and have been for some time, taking place in private. Chris is running unopposed in a one party town — this is not conducive to critical dialogue and creating the best city possible. If he’s on top of the City DFL hierarchy, who’s going to challenge him from within the party? My last post touched on this oligarchy. He’s also runing for a job he wants to leave behind. In every possible way but publicly stating it — he’s running for governor already. Is this the best for St. Paul? See my post regarding Arne Carlson’s comments on good governance.

So I want this blog to really address the issues: Chris not being honest about running for governor, the rnc, the budget, the hockey rink proposal, libraries,etc. A stronger and more critical public dialogue needs to take place in our one party town.

I admire the work you and others do at The Minnesota Independent.

To be clear, I am a DFL party member.  However, I am not working for any political party or for any individual campaign for office at this time.

Concede? Moi?

With Norm Coleman set to address the media at 3 p.m. CST, speculation abounds about whether the now-former senator will file a lawsuit to prevent certification of a win by Al Franken or, less likely, concede. One GOP bigwig has weighed in, urging Coleman to step down: Former Gov. Arne Carlson, who attended the 1996 event during which Coleman switched parties to become a Republican, predicts Coleman will lose any lawsuit he files. Carlson, who supported Coleman’s ‘98 gubernatorial bid, also said that a protracted battle, after 62 days of recounting, would hurt Coleman’s public image. By contrast, he said, “There’s no disgrace in losing.” He joins former Vice President Walter Mondale in calling for Coleman to throw in the towel.

Meanwhile, media outlets from bloggers to mainstream newsrooms have been reminding Coleman of his Nov. 5 statement that if he was in Franken’s position — behind in the vote count — he’d drop out.

“I would step back,” he said. “I just think the healing process is so important, the possibility of making a change of this magnitude in the voting system we have is so remote.”  This morning Minneapolis’ Fox 9 was the latest to chime in, leading off its story quoting Coleman’s words the day after Election Day.

Coleman’s Nov. 5 comment that he’d “step back”: