With just over 14 months remaining before the Iowa Caucus, National Journal’s The Hotline has released its Presidential Power Rankings Tuesday morning, assessing the viability of 15 Republicans who might mount bids to become their party’s representative in the race against President Barack Obama.

The list ranks Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty as the second leading contender, far above his placement in most early 2012 opinion polls. Hotline cites his “executive experience and conservative credentials,” as reasons to believe Pawlenty is the real deal, but wonders if the stereotype of Minnesota nice might be true in this case, harming his ability to appear aggressive enough to run an effective presidential primary campaign.

The Hotline breaks the potential candidates down into four tiers that, rather than revealing the strength of each candidate, indicate what sections of the Republican base Hotline believes will play the most prominent role in the selecting the nominee.

The publication essentially dismisses the 2010 uprising of the tea party movement as a force in Republican primaries, with “The Tea Party Tier” at the bottom of the list. Hotline gives most weight to the traditional-style candidates, known as “The A-List Tier.”

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney sits atop this pack, followed by Pawlenty, U.S. Sen. John Thune (N.D.) and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour. In explaining its high rating of Romney, Hotline points to his strengths in context of previous primary elections:

The GOP has a history of nominating the person who has stood in line, and after finishing second behind John McCain in 2008, Romney is now that person. He’s got the necessary infrastructure, fundraising ability, and intangibles to be the undisputed front-runner, but how convincingly he answers nagging questions about his individual mandate in Commonwealth Care will determine how long he keeps the top spot.

That last point is not just a distraction Romney can brush off on the campaign trail. His passage of health-care reform during his tenure in Massachusetts has already become a lightning rod for his potential opponents. The legislation is remarkably similar to the Affordable Care Act passed by Congress in 2010, with the individual mandate especially toxic among today’s Republican base voters.

On Fox News last night, Texas Gov. Rick Perry — himself ranked 11th on Hotline’s list — said that Romney would need to repudiate the Massachusetts plan if he is going to enter the 2012 field. And President Obama — likely viewing Romney as one of his greatest threats toward reelection for a second term — has frequently targeted Romney in public remarks on the health-care reform bill as a way of defusing his vulnerability in a Republican primary.

Similar problems face the remaining A-Tier candidates in Hotline’s list. Thune voted for the Troubled Asset Relief Program in 2008,  a decision Hotline says Thune has “an explanation for which he’s already rehearsing.” But TARP is up there alongside health care in the conservative base’s litmus test for vetting candidates. Support for the banking bill toppled Republican Sen. Bob Bennett of Utah during his primary and has drawn conservatives’ ire for numerous other Republicans. And few politicians carry the establishment label quite like Barbour, a former lobbyist and chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Though they’re termed the “The Fox News Tier,” the second class of candidates in Hotline’s rankings really represent the standard bearers of the tea party movement. Ranking from fourth to eighth are former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Indiana Rep. Mike Pence.

While Hotline ranks its first four candidates primarily on their similarities to past primary winners, everyone in the second tier is described in the terms that truly matter in running primary campaigns: the way voters receive them. Huckabee is a “charismatic man in the field.” Gingrich is “greeted like a rock star at every GOP rally he attends.” They note but do not give much weight to Pence’s victory in the Value Voters Summit straw poll, a key indication that the Indiana representative draws significant support from an important element of the Republican base.

As the name for this tier implies, all four are major figures appear regularly on Fox News, which has become one of the prime avenues for Republicans to reach the base. And though many tea party favorites such as Christine O’Donnell and Ken Buck ended up losing their general election campaigns, one of the main lessons of the 2010 cycle was the outsized power held by conservative activists in Republican primaries, a role likely to continue during the presidential nomination selection process. Increased enthusiasm for a candidate in the grassroots leads to excessive media coverage (see the endless discussion for any of Sarah Palin’s endorsements) and significant infusions of campaign funds (tea party favorite Sharron Angle’s $21 million haul).

As Slate’s Dave Weigel noted today, Romney may perform well in the early primary polls, but he largely serves as a placeholder, or traditional candidate, with significantly lower enthusiasm and loyalty than the candidates popular among the party’s base. The level of support for him or Pawlenty will likely vary significantly between now and February 2012, but the die-hard supporters of Sarah Palin are unlikely to waver in their allegiance.

With over a year to go until the first actual election in the nomination process, there is still plenty of time for political dynamics to shift. At this point 14 months ago, the tea party was still a nascent concept with little organizational power. But the current direction of political dynamics after the 2010 elections indicate that these voters will play a prominent role in selecting the Republicans’ 2012 candidate.

Read Hotline’s post for their rankings of candidates 9-15 and a description of each candidates strengths and weaknesses.

On Wednesday, ABC News reported that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has begun organizing their opposition files against potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates. The DNC filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request with the Pentagon, requesting information on any communications between the department and nine GOP politicians.

The DNC’s shortlist of Republican presidential aspirants consists of Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and South Dakota Sen. John Thune.

While the FOIA is intended to gather negative information, in some respects, gaining a spot on the DNC’s list is a compliment to the Republicans. These nine politicians appear to be the slate of candidates that the Democrats believe has the best chance at gaining the Republican 2012 nomination; other GOPers publicly flirting with presidential campaigns — such as former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum or Indiana Rep. Mike Pence — were snubbed for the list.

But Pawlenty did not receive the FOIA request as positive news, and fired back at the DNC on Thursday. Minnesota’s governor filed his own FOIA request, seeking information on the DNC’s communications with the federal government on the health-care reform bill.

Governor Pawlenty’s Freedom First PAC will submit FOIA requests to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and other relevant agencies seeking any documents related to the DNC’s communications with Federal officials about the Federal health care reforms. The request will specifically ask for documents related to the timing of promotional taxpayer-funded ads and mailings, DNC polls about health care, and the DNC’s role in promoting the President’s legislation.

Where the DNC’s request was all about gathering behind-the-scenes information, Pawlenty’s FOIA is all about public posturing; such a broad FOIA application is unlikely to result in any of the specific information gained, and, instead, just provides red meat to conservative primary voters who are likely to be receptive to speculation about the collision between governing and Democratic politicking.

Patrick Caldwell is the American Independent’s Minnesota correspondent.

Elsewhere in Minnesota news this morning … 

SIXTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: “The end of Arlen Specter.” That’s what Bachmann predicts as she swipes back at the senator from Pennsylvania for commanding her to act like a lady (audio). [Hot Dish Politics]

ELY: The end of bear privacy. Webcam promising view of live birth in bear’s den draws thousands of peering human eyeballs. [Fox 9]

STATE CAPITOL: Ethics first? Gov. Pawlenty’s PAC lets him skirt state limits on taking special-interest money during the legislative session. [Minnesota Public Radio]

STATEWIDE: Build a wall. Wisconsin’s unemployment rate is higher than Minnesota’s by 1.3 percentage points — the biggest gap in 22 years. [Smart Politics]

MINNEAPOLIS: “Purple and Gold.” Prince issues a song for the Minnesota Vikings; Mayor R.T. Rybak wagers local CDs by Brother Ali, Mason Jennings and the Minnesota Beatle Project. [Fox9; Gimme Noise]

STATE CAPITOL: Dick Cheney would take that bet. A gubernatorial Facebook war prompts suggestion that Pawlenty agree to be Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal’s runningmate if the New Orleans Saints beat the Vikings. [Associated Press]

With 17 percentage-point support, Sarah Palin was the top pick for president of 804 poll respondents who ID’d themselves as GOP or independents who lean GOP. Pawlenty was at 1 percent, along with Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

It was a similar story when pollsters asked who “best reflects the core values of the Republican Party.” Palin again drew the most support (18 percent), with Pawlenty again at 1 percent, this time with more company. Besides Jindal, Paul, Guiliani, other 1-percenters included Colin Powell, both President Bushes, and even Ronald Reagan.

Pawlenty has traveled the country speaking about attracting voters to the GOP who are “not yet Republicans” – while also anticipating the proposed “purity test” with his chastisements for New York congressional candidate Dede Scozzafava and U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe for not towing the party line.

The poll was conducted Nov. 19–23 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points for GOP voters and five points for leaning-GOP voters.

The newspaper asked residents of the nation’s first presidential caucus state how they viewed seven potential contenders for the 2012 GOP nomination. Only Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal inspired less feeling than Pawlenty, with 74 percent unsure how they felt about him.

None of the others’ home states are anywhere near as close geographically to Iowa as Pawlenty’s: Arkansas (Mike Huckabee), Alaska (Sarah Palin), Virginia (Newt Gingrich), Massachusetts (Mitt Romney) and New York (George Pataki).

Pawlenty began his cross-border courtship of Iowa Republicans earlier this month with a widely watched speech to the state’s party activists.

[Via Hot Dish Politics]

A new Marist Poll puts Pawlenty at the back of the pack of likely 2012 GOP contenders. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the field with support from 21 percent of those polled, while just trailing were former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (20 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (19 percent). Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich drew support from 10 percent of those surveyed, while Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal was the top pick of five percent of respondents. Pawlenty’s draw: just one percent.

Photo: MN North Star

If Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s office still uses those “While You Were Out” notes, his Monday-morning stack would make interesting reading. During his weekend trip to Iraq, Pawlenty was called a GOP “star” like Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, and his name came up in speculation about which unnamed governor was reportedly also serviced by one of former New York Gov. Elliot Spitzer’s sex providers.

A hooker identified only as “Annie” told the New York Daily News that besides Spitzer (and Bernie Madoff) she counted another, unnamed governor among her customers. That led Gawker to speculate that it could be Pawlenty.

City Pages insists one detail — a “prominent” wife — nixes T-Paw from the list of possible candidates. But hey, Mary Pawlenty used to be a judge (before a brief stint at an arbitration outfit that Attorney General Lori Swanson just forced out of the arbitration business). Gov. Pawlenty also frequently deems his wife “hot,” although he once said he’d have it made “if I could only get her to have sex with me.” 

Photo: US Army

More flattering was the pronouncement by Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, himself a 2012 presidential prospect, that the Republican Party’s future lies with “stars” like Pawlenty and Jindal (not to mention Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who Barbour called “a bona fide energy expert”).

Pawlenty and Jindal haven’t been mentioned in the same breath as often since Jindal’s lackluster GOP response to President Obama’s State of the Union address. But Jindal is fixing to make his star rise again this week by blitzing op-ed pages and the cable-news talk show circuit.

Barbour made the comment at the annual meeting of the National Governors Association, which Pawlenty used to chair. This year, Pawlenty skipped the guvconfab (as well as his Friday radio show) for a trip to Iraq with three other governors.

It was planned as a morale-booster for the troops but turned solemn due to the deaths of three Minnesota National Guard military policemen – Spc. Daniel Paul Drevnick, 22, of Woodbury, Spc. David Wertish, 20, of Olivia, and Spc. Carlos E. Wilcox, 27, of Cottage Grove — just days before.

According to the Red Bull Report:

“Normally, at these town hall meetings, we talk about a lot of stuff,” said Pawlenty, “from the GI Bill to the Minnesota Vikings. But I want to limit my comments today to letting you know that I’m just so very sorry.”

When the time came for the MPs to ask questions of the governor, the room was silent for a moment. One Soldier stood up, who would ask the one and only question from the entire company. The Soldier was Staff Sgt. Blake Hayden from Woodbury, Minn., squad leader for the Military Police Company’s Quick Reaction Force and the direct supervisor of Drevnick, Wertish and Wilcox.

“Sir, are you going to be able to be at the funerals?”

The governor did not mince words with his response.

“Yes.”

Pawlenty has almost promised to travel to Puerto Rico next month as a special guest at a fundraiser for the Republican Governors Association. That’s an organization his fan Barbour now heads, after South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford resigned the post following his own sex scandal.

“Sign me up for your Tea Party, patriots,” she said in a video message. “God bless you and keep up the great work!”

While Bachmann lent her full support for the movement, Republican Reps. Erik Paulsen and John Kline remained silent on the tea parties.

Local organizers decided to forgo speeches by elected officials but didn’t shun words of endorsement.

“Although we had many requests, we did not want any elected officials to speak at this event,” Tea Party organizer Margaret Lee said in a press release.

When Gov. Tim Pawlenty gave the RNC Weekly Republican Response last weekend, he didn’t mention the Tea Party to be held right outside his office a few days later. Other speculative Republican presidential nominees ran with the Tea Party cause, however, including Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who all showed up at their local gatherings.

Some elected officials were cautious about the Tea Party. “I’m just thinking what I should say because it can be used against me in a court of law,” Rep. Jim Abeler, R-Anoka, joked to the Star Tribune.

While Minnesota’s organizers left Republican leaders out the mix from the get-go, their presence at other rallies left a bad impression, the Washington Independent reports. Jason Pye, a libertarian organizer in Atlanta, Ga., was not pleased when Newt Gingrich became involved.

“Newt Gingrich enabled George W. Bush,” Pye told the Washington Independent. “He enabled the big spending. He lobbied conservative Republicans to compromise their principles and support Medicare Part D. He supported the bailout.”

In fact, a number of signs at the St. Paul rally served to remind tea party attendees that Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, “was right” and that mainstream Republicans were late to the party.

Bachmann’s message to Tea Party-goers:

Appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press” today, McCain expressed “admiration” for his 2008 vice presidential pick but listed Pawlenty when host David Gregory asked him about future Republican presidential prospects.

GREGORY: In terms of future leaders of the Republican party, would you like to see Sarah Palin become president?

McCAIN: I’d like to see her compete. I think we’ve got some very good candidates. (Utah Gov.) John Huntsman and — the problem when I run down these names I always leave out a name — (Lousiana Gov.) Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty. There’s so many. There’s a lot of good, fresh talent out there.

GERGORY: Would you support Palin?

McCAIN: Oh, I’d have to see who the candidates are and what the situation is at the time. But have no doubt of my respect, admiration and love for Sarah and her family.

The exchange was a virtual replay of remarks McCain made on ABC’s “This Week” in December, just weeks after the election, when he joked “my corpse is still warm.”

That suggests that developments since then — including Jindal’s widely panned Republican response to President Obama’s address to Congress and Pawlenty’s poor straw-poll showing at a conservative confab — haven’t discouraged McCain about the future of those two 2008 GOP veepstakes also-rans.

Asked today how the Republican Party can avoid permanent minority status, McCain listed several approaches: “Party of ideas, party of inclusiveness, outreach to other ethnic aspects of the American electorate.

“A lot of people complain about divisions within the Republican Party,” McCain said. “That’s good right now. Let’s let a thousand flowers bloom.”

(If embedded video does not appear above, see the “Meet the Press” clip here.)

Palin is sending back 45 percent of the $930 million her state had coming — $160 million of which would have gone to educating people in a state where 40 percent drop out of high school. Maybe some of it could have been spent on sex ed: Alaska’s teen pregnancy rate is the fastest-growing in the land. But no, Palin insisted that any money she took fit her requirements to a T: ”timely, targeted and temporary.”

Oh, for the wisdom of Solomon! Wait — was Solomon a maverick or a community organizer? No matter — spurning half the federal government’s largesse to Alaska isn’t really like splitting the baby. For a GOP governor with lofty ambitions, it’s more like being half pregnant.