In Minnesota, Democratic Rep. Tim Walz of the 1st Congressional District is favored to win his race against Republican Brian Davis with CQ moving the race from Leans Democratic to Democrat Favored.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Iraq veteran and Democrat Steve Sarvi improved against Republican Rep. John Kline as CQ changed the race from Republican Favored to Leans Republican.

The flap over Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann’s “anti-America” comments on Hardball less than two weeks ago appear to have influenced CQ’s ranking for the 6th Congressional District. The ranking jumped from Republican Favored to No Clear Favorite, putting Democratic candidate El Tinklenberg at an even shot to win the district.

Minnesota 1: Tim Walz , D
One year ago: Leans Democratic
Six months ago: Leans Democratic
Today: Democrat Favored

Minnesota 2: John Kline , R
One year ago: Safe Republican
Six months ago: Safe Republican
Today: Republican Favored

Minnesota 6: Michele Bachmann , R
One year ago: Republican Favored
Six months ago: Republican Favored
Today: No Clear Favorite

A little number crunching turns up a few surprises, like the fact that conservative broadcasting magnate Stanley Hubbard has so far given more to Senator Amy Klobuchar than he has to Norm Coleman. Or that Cargill MacMillan Jr.–heir to the Cargill fortune and roughly seven billion dollars wealthier than you–has given next to nothing: a thousand bucks each to Norm Coleman, John McCain and a Republican Congresswoman from California.

Shed no tears for Coleman–he’s received $24,700 in individual donations from Minnesota’s Forbes-listers, more than any other candidate.

Here’s how each Minnesotan ranked on the Forbes list, how much they’ve been giving, and to whom.

No. 42a, Whitney MacMillan

Cargill heirs Whitney MacMillan and Cargill MacMillan Jr. are tied for the distinction of richest Minnesotan (and 42nd richest American).

Born in 1929, Whitney MacMillan ran Cargill from 1976-1995 and was the last Cargill/MacMillan family member to head the company. Here’s what his political spending looks like:

$6,200 to Norm Coleman
$3,300 to Erik Paulsen
$4,400 to the Republican Party of Minnesota
$4,600 to Brian Davis
$2,000 to Michele Bachmann
$1,000 to John Kline
$250 to Rod Grams

MacMillan also sent $1,000 each to Republican Senators in Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, and New Hampshire.

Total contributions: $25,750

No. 42b, Cargill MacMillan Jr.

Cargill MacMillan Jr. must not get as many party invitations as Whitney. There are just three contributions on record this cycle for the heir who saw his massive wealth double in the last year.

$1,000 to Norm Coleman
$1,000 to John McCain
$1,000 to Mary Bono Mack (R, CA)

Total contributions: $3,000

No. 102, Carl Pohlad

Carl Pohlad once told the Star Tribune: “All I wanted in life was to make a $100 a week and have two suits of clothes–one for summer and one for winter.” Notoriously frugal, Pohlad doesn’t throw much into politics. But he did earn himself the distinction as the only rich person on this list to give a large contribution to Barack Obama. And his donation to the Major League Baseball Commissioner’s office was mostly a contribution to the Democratic party. Of the $273,000 the office has contributed so far in this election cycle, 62% of that green turned blue. Still, he gave up $5,600 to the other side, with a sizable chunk of change going to the Norm Coleman-affiliated Northstar Leadership PAC.

$9,200 to Barack Obama
$5,000 to the Northstar Leadership PAC
$5,000 to MLB Commissioner’s Office
$600 to Norm Coleman

Total contributions: $19,800

No. 105, Richard Schulze

Best Buy founder Richard Schulze is sitting on $3.5 billion dollars and put most of his recent political contributions into the U.S. Senate race. Norm Coleman got $2,600 but Mike Ciresi, a one-time contender for Coleman’s seat, got $2,300.

$2,600 to Norm Coleman
$2,300 Mike Ciresi
$1,100 to the Republican National Committee
$1,000 to Jim Ramstad

Total contributions: $7,000

No. 123, Glen Taylor

So long as you are a Republican, Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor is a generous man. If you are the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Taylor is exceedingly generous–$45,000 generous. Here is a man who wants a Republican-controlled Senate and is willing to pay for it.

$45,700 to the National Republican Senatorial Committee
$7,200 to the Republican Party of Minnesota
$4,600 to John McCain
$3,100 to Norm Coleman
$2,000 to Michele Bachmann
$1,000 to Brian Davis
$1,000 to Erik Paulsen
$1,000 to John Kline
$200 to the Republican National Committee

Total contributions: $65,800

No. 163, Mary Janet Cargill

Mary Janet Cargill apparently does not like to get her money mixed up in politics. She contributed to no campaign for national office. She supported no party. Fair enough, with $2.5 billion who needs politicians? Wait.

No. 281a, Barbara Carlson Gage

Locked in a $1.7 billion three-way tie for least-rich richest Minnesotans (the 281 slot on Forbes’ list) are Barbara Carlson Gage, Mary Carlson Nelson, and Stanley Hubbard.

When she’s not christening ships, Barbara Carlson Gage is–truth is I don’t know what she’s doing. But here’s who she’s been giving to:

$4,600 to John McCain
$2,600 to Norm Coleman
$2,300 to Rudy Giuliani
$1,000 to Jim Ramstad
$500 to Brack Obama
$500 to Amy Klobuchar

Total contributions: $10,500

No. 281b, Marilyn Carlson Nelson

With just a few exceptions, the Carlson sisters’ money runs red. Here are Carlson Co. CEO Marilyn Carlson Nelson’s contributions for the current election cycle:

$8,110 to the National Republican Senatorial Committee
$6,900 to John McCain
$3,600 to Norm Coleman
$2,300 to Rudy Guiliani
$2,300 to Mike Ciresi
$360 to Elizabeth Dole

Total contributions: $21,270

No. 281c, Stanley S. Hubbard

Conservative broadcasting magnate Stanley Hubbard seems to be having the most fun of the bunch. He’s given overwhelmingly to the Republican cause, with a few notable exceptions. He gave $5,000 to Norm Coleman but $5,100 to staunch Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar, who isn’t even facing re-election. He gave $2,300 to Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney (before backing McCain) but he gave the same contribution to one-time Democratic presidential hopeful Bill Richardson of New Mexico, where Hubbard owns four NBC affiliates.

$19,000 to the National Republican Congressional Committee
$10,000 to the National Republican Senatorial Committee
$10,000 to the Republican Campaign Committee of New Mexico
$4,600 to Michele Bachmann
$6,600 to Erik Paulsen
$6,600 to Dick Day
$5,100 to Amy Klobuchar
$5,000 to Norm Coleman
$5,000 to the Freedom & Security PAC
$5,000 to the National Association of Broadcasters
$5,000 to Northstar Leadership PAC
$5,000 to the Great Plains Leadership Fund
$4,600 to John McCain
$4,600 to John Kline
$2,500 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
$3,300 to Rudy Giuliani
$2,300 to Mitt Romney
$2,300 to Bill Richardson
$2,300 to Mike Ciresi
$1,300 to Pete Domenici
$1,000 to John Thune (R, SD)
$1,000 to Bob Schaffer (R, CO)
$1,000 to Terri Bonoff
$500 to Vito Fossella (R, NY)
$200 to the Republican Central Committee of South Dakota

Total contributions: $113,800

For more: Read “The Crunch,” Paul Demko’s ongoing multi-part series on Minnesota’s top-100 political contributors.

Two other Minnesota races make the list of competitive contests. The Third Congressional District seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Jim Ramstad continues to be viewed as a toss-up. And in the Sixth Congressional District freshman Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann is deemed favored to win re-election.

Quinnipiac also took a look at the U.S. Senate race. Norm Coleman garnered support from 49 percent of respondents, while 42 percent backed Al Franken. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley, despite registering double-digit support in a pair of recent polls, wasn’t included in the Quinnipiac poll.

In U.S. House races, Rep. Tim Walz holds a commanding 50-32 lead over Republican Brian Davis, according to the challenger’s own polling figures. Meanwhile beltway pundit Stu Rothenberg has released his latest assessment of competitive House races. He continues to view Minnesota’s Third Congressional District, where Democrat Ashwin Madia and Republican Erik Paulsen are battling to replace retiring Rep. Jim Ramstad, as a straight toss-up. Incumbent Reps. Walz and Michele Bachmann are deemed favored to retain their posts. Conspicuously missing from the rankings is Minnesota’s Second Congressional District, where Democrat Steve Sarvi is trying to unseat three-term Rep. John Kline.

Al Franken will comfortably advance from today’s primary election to take on Norm Coleman in the U. S. Senate race. With more than 80 percent of the results in, Franken is carrying 67 percent of the vote in the seven-candidate field. His most credible challenger, attorney Priscilla Lord Faris, is currently garnering support from 29 percent of voters.

Dean Barkley will be joining Franken and Coleman on the ballot as the Independence Party candidate. The former Senator, having served briefly after the death of Paul Wellstone, is routing the seven-candidate field with more than 60 percent of the vote.

In House races, only Reps. Michele Bachmann and Keith Ellison faced primary opposition. Both incumbents are earning support from more than 80 percent of voters in results so far reported by the Minnesota Secretary of State’s office.

A pair of House districts featured primary battles to determine who will take on the incumbent. In the most intriguing showdown, GOP-endorsed challenger Brian Davis currently leads state Sen. Dick Day by a 62-38 margin in the First Congressional District and will advance easily. Less interesting is the contest in the Seventh Congressional District, where Glen Menze and Alan Roebke are battling to see who will run against nine-term incumbent Collin Peterson.

There were a handful of intriguing state-legislative contests taking place today. It appears to be a split decision for the override six. Two-term incumbent Neil Peterson is paying the price for his vote to override Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s veto of the transportation bill earlier this year, losing to GOP-endorsed challenger Jan Schneider by a 57-43 margin. Rep. Jim Abeler, however, is headed to the general election, carrying 64 percent of the vote.

Minneapolis Rep. Willie Dominguez is finished serving at the Capitol after just one term. He was trounced by challenger Bobby Joe Champion, who garnered the DFL endorsement. Meanwhile veteran Reps. Phyllis Kahn and Joe Mullery have handily beaten back intra-party challengers.

Finally it looks unlikely that Rep. Mark Olson — who was kicked out of the Republican caucus and denied endorsement after being arrested for domestic assault — will be headed to the state senate. He’s currently trailing Alison Krueger in a contest to see who will represent the GOP in the general election.

(Photo courtesy of cursedthing)

There’s a primary election today in Minnesota. You can be forgiven for not having noticed. With the temporary Republican takeover of the Twin Cities and a U.S. Senate race that’s been billed as a two-candidate duel for months, it’s easy to overlook the September balloting. But there are some intriguing questions to consider in looking at tomorrow’s results:

1. How comfortably will Al Franken advance out of the Democratic primary? There’s little doubt that the DFL-endorsed candidate will ultimately emerge from the six-candidate scuffle. His most serious challenger is Priscilla Lord Faris, an attorney and former Sunfish Lake City Council member, who filed at the last minute after citing concerns over Franken’s viability. But Lord Faris has run a schizophrenic campaign, initially running TV spots attacking Franken, but then pulling the ads (only to see Sen. Norm Coleman adopt the footage for his own attacks). The other challengers are the usual cast of gadflies, including perennial candidates Ole Savior and Dick Franson. Coleman faces just one challenger on the Republican side: fugitive arsonist Jack Shepard. Anything less than a Franken romp could indicate lingering questions about his candidacy among the DFL faithful.

2. Who will survive the Independence Party scrum? Jesse Ventura ultimately proved more interested in press attention than running a political campaign, but there are seven contenders for the IP crown. Three notables stand out from the pack. Dean Barkley enjoys the greatest name recognition, having served as director of the Office of Strategic and Long Range Planning during the Ventura administration and briefly as a U.S. senator following the death of Paul Wellstone. He also has the backing of the former Governor. Jack Uldrich is an author and former IP chairman. Southeastern Minnesota farmer Stephen Williams earned the party’s endorsement prior to the emergence of his two chief rivals. Whoever survives Tuesday’s primary will face the formidable task of siphoning off attention from the much anticipated Coleman-Franken showdown.

3. Does Dick Day have a chance in hell? Almost certainly not. But the eccentric state legislator from Owatonna could benefit from low turnout. He’s raised no money (almost literally), but enjoys widespread name recognition in the First Congressional District and is popular with the far right. Conversely, Brian Davis has raised a formidable war chest and enjoys the GOP’s official backing, but is a political neophyte. The winner gets the opportunity to take on Rep. Tim Walz.

4. Who will survive to get throttled by Collin Peterson? The suspense is agonizing. Alan Roebke is a convicted felon who doesn’t have enough money to pay for gas to campaign in the sprawling Seventh Congressional District. Glen Menze is the GOP-endorsed candidate and a veteran of the 2000 campaign, when he lost to Peterson by a mere 40 percentage points. The powerful chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, who is seeking his tenth term, would have to be caught in a compromising position with livestock to lose this election.

5. How many times will Republicans chant “Drill, Baby, Drill!” at Michele Bachmann’s victory party? Poor Bachmann. She’s been eclipsed by Sarah Palin as the designated GOP pinup girl for oil drilling. But the freshman legislator should be able to take solace in a thumping primary victory. Her challenger, St. John’s University psychology professor Aubrey Immelman, walked the entire district during the campaign — but will almost certainly be spared a similar trek to Washington. Elwyn Tinklenberg, running as a Blue Dog Democrat, and the Independence Party’s Bob Anderson await Bachmann in the general election.

6. Will alleged wife beater Mark Olson represent the GOP in November? In the most intriguing grass fire of the primary campaign, Rep. Mark Olson — who was kicked out of the Republican caucus after being arrested for domestic abuse — won the local GOP chapter’s backing for a state senate seat. This incited state party officials to denounce the endorsement, with Sen. Coleman even bizarrely entering the fray and GOP flak Michael Brodkorb trashing the candidate. The heavy handed tactics of GOP poohbahs seems to have backfired, however, with local activists rallying to Olson’s defense. We’ll find out tomorrow as he squares off against Alison Krueger in the primary. The winner will face Democrat Lisa Fobbe.

7. What will happen to the Override Six? The six Republicans who flouted party dictates by voting to override Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s veto of the transportation bill last spring have faced stiff reprisals from their party. The GOP stripped the turncoats of their leadership positions and several were denied endorsement by local party activists. Will voters also punish them at the ballot box? We’ll get a partial answer tomorrow. Rep. Neil Peterson, who was denied the GOP endorsement in 41B, will take on Jan Schneider. And Rep. Jim Abeler will face a similar task in battling Don Huizenga for the right to appear on the November ballot.

8. Will Minneapolis pols Joe Mullery, Willie Dominguez and Phylis Kahn survive? All three legislators face seemingly formidable primary opposition. Six-term Rep. Mullery, who represents the North Side, was denied the DFL endorsement in favor of activist Peggy Flanagan. But after Flanagan dropped out owing to personal issues, park board member and Dairy Queen owner Jon Olson entered the fray in 58A. Rep. Willie Dominguez just completed his first term and will face off against attorney Bobby Joe Champion. The challenger secured the DFL endorsement and has been strongly backed by U. S. Rep. Keith Ellison, who formerly held the North Side post. Rep. Kahn has seemingly been serving in the legislature since the advent of electricity (1972, actually), cultivating a reputation for eccentricity and eliciting visceral hatred from conservatives. The DFL’er has survived many electoral challenges through the years, but this year she faces Joel Rainville, whose family has exerted an out-sized influence on Minneapolis politics for decades.

In the poll of likely general election voters, Walz has a 57 to 22 percent lead over Day with 21 percent undecided, and a 60 to 20 percent lead over Davis with 21 percent undecided.

The poll was conducted May 17 through 19. Minnesota’s 1st District is being targeted by Republicans as a possible pickup in November.

Senate:  Prepare for an air war:  Just as DFLer Al Franken announced that he would hit the airwaves early in 2008, fellow DFLer Mike Ciresi beat him to the punch with two ads focusing on his legal resume and on the plight on the middle class in America.  Due to a quirk in Federal Election Commission regulations, it appears that Ciresi will be able to self-fund a portion of these ads without giving Franken and Coleman (or Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, for that matter) an advantage in increased matching funds. More analysis needed on that, but a decent situation for Team Ciresi to be in, should they choose that route.CD3:  Iraq vet and attorney Ashwin Madia holds a press conference today to discuss the status of his campaign, endorsements, and Q4 fundraising totals. California congressman Mike Honda has endorsed Madia’s campaign in recent days, but local legislative endorsements are going to be hard to come by — State Sen. Terri Bonoff has already locked up most of those. Madia’s campaign has been tight-lipped about the content of the press conference, especially fundraising numbers, but numerous sources indicate that the press conference would not be happening, especially leading off the CD3 announcement circuit, if it were not a strong fundraising total heading into precinct caucuses. As of this morning, Madia had raised about $96,000 online (courtesy of ActBlue, where his campaign website points potential donors), and traditional fundraising totals will add to that.

CD1:  Republican candidate and Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis is out this morning with a press release calling for “alternative” energy in the United States and attacking Tim Walz on the issue. “Alternative” is in quotes because the issue of alternative/renewable/clean energy is a tightly phrased one in Congressional circles.

• Alternative = domestic oil and gas exploration and renewable energy sources too
• Renewable = biodiesel, ethanol, and clean energy too
• Clean = wind, solar, hydro, nuclear (sometimes, sort of)

See the order of priorities? Rarely will you hear Republican congresscritters support anything but increases in “alternative” energy production, Sen. Norm Coleman included. Many Democrats, including Sen. Amy Klobuchar, usually include “Renewable” in their energy policies instead of advocating solely for “Clean” energy.  Davis calls for opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil exploration, opposes clean energy mandates, and argues for a market-based approach to raising fuel economy standards. I may be calling down a nastygram from Davis’ campaign for this one, but ANWR exploration didn’t pass under a Republican Congress (including Walz predecessor Gil Gutknecht), and it sure as heck isn’t going to pass a Democratic one. Davis also says we should “Remove automobile mileage standards and government imposed production mandates because they often work against the free market and have failed in the past. Let individuals decide what is best for them.”

As is said on the Internet, YMMV: Your Mileage May Vary. Especially if you just have to drive a Hummer to get to and from work each day.

In today’s case, that Something Bigger is the Iowa Caucuses, set for this evening, which will officially kick off the 2008 presidential race.  But that doesn’t mean there isn’t local news to be read until the caucuses actually start:

CD3:  Attorney and Iraq vet Ashwin Madia was endorsed by the DFL Veterans’ Caucus yesterday. “It’s important to remember that ‘supporting our troops’ doesn’t end when their deployment does,” he said in a statement. “We have a deep moral obligation to stand by those who have served our country with honor as they work to successfully transition back into civilian life.”  Madia faces State Sen. Terri Bonoff of Minnetonka and Mayor Jim Hovland of Edina for the DFL endorsement, to be decided later this year.  Bonoff is generally seen as the frontrunner, with the support of several DFL legislators and the influential local American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Workers (AFSCME) unit.

CD1:  Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis announces today that he raised over $156,000 in 2007 for his bid to unseat first-term DFL incumbent Tim Walz.  Although this total does not match up well with Walz’s fundraising success — as of the third quarter of 2007, Walz had over $711,000 in cash on hand — it does match up well with Davis’ GOP rivals.  State Sen. Dick Day reported total receipts of around $157k through Q3 2007, while State Rep. Randy Demmer reported around $150k raised through the same period.  While it is likely that Davis’ total leaves him in 3rd place in the money chase, it should be enough to wage a viable campaign for the Republican endorsement.

HD61B:  Affordable housing advocate and community activist Jeff Hayden announced on the Minneapolis Issues Forum that he will run for the House seat being vacated by four-term State Rep. Neva Walker (h/t MN Blue).  The district covers a large swath of Minneapolis, and should not see any credible conservative candidates.

SD25:  The special election to replace State Sen. Tom Neuville, who was recently appointed to the bench by Gov. Pawlenty, takes place today.  DFLer and high school teacher Kevin Dahle faces off against Republican businessman and former State Rep. Ray Cox.

Brian Davis also chose Tuesday to publicize a high-profile endorsement for his campaign, that of former Sen. Rudy Boschwitz.  In a Davis campaign press release, Boschwitz said Davis would be “absolutely unique in Congress in dealing with the nation’s most pressing problems,” a reference to Davis’ medical background.  However, as in the case of Meyer, the effect of this endorsement is, at best, unclear:  The last time Boschwitz appeared on a statewide ballot was 1996, almost six election cycles ago, and that was in a loss to Paul Wellstone.

On the other hand, he has raised large sums of money for President Bush in both of his campaigns for the White House, reaching Pioneer and Ranger thresholds in 2000 and 2004.  Only if Boschwitz is willing to put his still-considerable fundraising and behind-the-scenes clout to work on Davis’ behalf will this endorsement mean more than a photo-op and a good media day.