The first to fall was St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman. In late August he hired an impressive campaign staff vastly overqualified to help him walk to re-election. “But with a primary barely two weeks away and little buzz about the race,” Jason Hoppin wrote at The Political Animal, “there’s no doubt the team is in place to help with Coleman’s expected bid for governor.”

Then, barely six weeks later, Coleman announced he wouldn’t run for governor after all.

Next was Brian Sullivan. On Election Day, Mary LaHammer wrote on her TPT blog “There’s a lot of talk (PIM and MPR) that businessman Brian Sullivan may indeed enter the race for governor.” LaHammer’s headline: “Brian Sullivan Buzz.”

Now, seven days later, Sullivan has emphatically declined to run.

That gives a different cast to Charley Shaw’s headline at Politics in Minnesota last Friday: “Buzz about a Norm Coleman run for governor is getting louder.” To make matters worse, Shaw writes that “journalist Barry Casselman told PIM he has noticed the uptick in buzz about Coleman.”

Could a Norm Coleman non-candidacy be the next shoe to drop in the great gubernatorial buzz-kill of 2009?

But in recent weeks speculation has grown that Sullivan, a Republican National Committee member, was reconsidering a shot at the GOP nomination. He lost out to Tim Pawlenty in a grueling endorsement battle in 2002 and would clearly be a serious contender for the party’s nod. However, Sullivan’s staying on the sidelines after again considering the race, according to a press release issued today:

“In June, I announced that I would not run for governor in 2010. However, in the following months, I received many requests from Republican activists to reconsider that decision. As a result, two weeks ago I asked some friends to sound out the opinions of party leaders about the possibility of my candidacy and to understand the challenges of a late entry into the race. Though I received much gratifying encouragement to run, I concluded that my business obligations would prevent me from dedicating the time needed to run an effective campaign. Accordingly, I will not reconsider my previous decision, and I will not be a candidate for governor next year.”

Sullivan also stated that he would back whichever candidate receives the GOP endorsement.

Elsewhere in Minnesota news this morning …

STATEWIDE: ‘Rithmetic favors referendums. Voters approved more than half of school districts’ requests for more money.  [Minnesota Public Radio]

DULUTH: School board seats split. Voters gave wins to two candidates who favor the “Red Plan” to close and build schools and two from the opposition, which still lacks power to stop it. [Duluth News Tribune]

STATE FAIR: “Everything is pre-existing.” That’s what one elderly fairgoer told U.S. Sen. Al Franken this year about her medical status, and he repeated the remark in a major floor speech on health care. [Political Pulse]

ST. PAUL: Sullivan sizing up GOP bid for guv. Businessman Brian Sullivan might give it another go, and Norm Coleman’s success fishing for friends on Facebook suggests he might too. [TPT Almanac: At the Capitol]

STATEWIDE: Warren Buffett buys BNSF railroad … for $200. Investor types will now drive out to Big Lake to ride the Northstar Commuter Rail line back in, simply for the privilege of traveling on track owned by the Oracle of Omaha. [Star Tribune; Parker Brothers]

PROCTOR: Renegade recliner re-dubbed “DWI Chair” on eBay. Police bent over backwards to please La-Z-Boy lawyers who wanted them to change the name under which they are auctioning off the souped-up chair they confiscated after a drunk “driver” crashed it. But the change will cost them bids from states where they say “DUI.” [Duluth News Tribune]

Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s announcement earlier this month that he will not seek a third term has unleashed a political gold rush among Republican politicians in the state. Minnesota’s current political landscape includes an eye-popping 18 declared and possible gubernatorial contenders. With the list of Democratic contenders also reaching well into double digits, it promises to be one of the most wide-open gubernatorial campaigns in decades.

And if the slate of Democratic candidates was difficult to assess, the outlook for the GOP contenders is even more difficult to size up. With Pawlenty dominating the state party over the last six years, and the Republicans out of leadership in both legislative bodies since 2006, there are few household names in the bunch. In addition, the candidate that many political observers thought to be the odds-on favorite — businessman Brian Sullivan, who narrowly lost the GOP nomination to Pawlenty in 2002 — has announced that he’ll be sitting this contest out.

The Republicans’ endorsing convention is not until at least May of next year and by then the list of challengers will have undoubtedly been whittled down significantly. With Democrats holding all the down-ballot statewide posts, some of these contenders will likely turn their attention to those offices. But here’s a look at the emerging field for 2010.

Definitely in: Former Minnesota State Auditor Pat Anderson, former state Rep. Bill Haas, state Rep. Paul Kohls and House Minority Leader Marty Seifert.

Rep. Marty Seifert

Pat Anderson

Anderson and Seifert probably start out with better name recognition than any of the other contenders in the GOP field. The former is the only gubernatorial candidate to have previously won a statewide contest, but failed in her re-election bid for state auditor in 2006 in a tough year for the GOP. She’s since landed at the Minnesota Free Market Institute.

Anderson sees a change in the GOP base that has its roots in the 2006 Ron Paul presidential campaign, and that will influence the endorsement process. “It is a true libertarian Republican movement, and they’re changing the party,” she said in an interview. “There’s less discussion about social issues and more discussion about the Constitution.”

Seifert is still a relatively fresh face at age 37, but has more than a decade of experience at the state legislature, including two sessions as House minority leader. The Republican from Marshall earned notice for his cool-headed, if often caustic, opposition to the DFL majority.

Rep. Paul Kohls

Kohls is also among a cadre of prominent, young GOP legislators seeking to emerge as a statewide leader of the party. The Republican from Victoria figures Sullivan’s decision to stay on the sideline has made the race even more wide open. But he still believes the field will be winnowed down before next year’s state convention.

“I fully expect that some people will get in and not be able to raise money or generate support and will quickly get out,” he said. “I don’t think people can defer starting to raise money very long because it’s going to take some money just to put an organization together and get started.”

Former Rep. Bill Haas

Haas brings an impressive resume — 10 years in the legislature; two terms as mayor of Champlin — but has been out of the political spotlight for three years. He’ll need to ramp up his name recognition if he hopes to be a factor, but believes his status as something of an outsider could be a positive with voters. Haas said in an interview that he made the decision to run more than a year ago, dependent on whether Pawlenty bowed out.

“I’ve been watching the process and staying informed,” he said of the goings-on at the Capitol. “Minnesota is really sitting at a point now where we need to grow the economy. The backbone of our economy is small business owners and they’re hurting.”

Likely in: State Reps. Laura Brod and Morrie Lanning, state Sens. David Hann, Paul Koering and Geoff Michel, former House Majority Leader Speaker of the House Steve Sviggum and former Pawlenty Chief of Staff Charlie Weaver.

Sen. Steve Sviggum

Of this group Sviggum and Weaver are probably the best-known commodities. The former served as House Majority Leader Speaker of the House when Republicans controlled the house and has since joined the Pawlenty administration as commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry. The Kenyon Republican hasn’t officially entered the gubernatorial fray, but he’s made his interest no secret.

“I’ll do a little exploration, talk to some friends and some family over the next few days or a couple of weeks and see where it leads us,” Sviggum told Minnesota Public Radio earlier this month.

Charlie Weaver

Weaver also brings experience at multiple levels of state government. He spent almost a decade at the Capitol as a legislator, before unsuccessfully running for attorney general. Weaver then went on to serve as commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Public Safety during Jesse Ventura’s administration and as Pawlenty’s chief of staff. Currently he heads the Minnesota Business Partnership. Weaver isn’t quelling speculation that he’ll run.

“I am considering and will spend the summer looking at it very seriously,” he said. “No. 1, obviously, is my wife has to say ‘yes.’”

Weaver says the ability to raise large amounts of money will be important, noting that two prominent Democratic candidates, Matt Entenza and Mark Dayton, can utilize significant personal wealth in the contest.

Rep. Laura Brod

Sen. David Hann

Brod and Hann are among the Republican legislators who took up a more prominent leadership role in the just-completed legislative session. Both are seriously considering the gubernatorial contest, but could also be attractive options for down-ballot posts. The latter has stepped down from his leadership position in the state senate in order to test the waters, but hasn’t made his candidacy official.

“I don’t have a time-line,” Hann said of making a decision. “I’d like to come to a conclusion about that relatively quickly.”

Rep. Morrie Lanning

Lanning also confirms that he’s seriously considering the race. He’s in his fourth term at the legislature after serving as the mayor of Moorhead for 22 years.

“I’ve been very encouraged in the support I’ve been getting from around the state,” he says. “But I recognize it’s a big hill to climb.”

Sen. Paul Koering

Koering would face a unique hurdle if he decides to seek the GOP endorsement. As an openly gay legislator, many GOP activists would find his candidacy untenable. Nonetheless Koering said that he will abide by the endorsement if he ultimately decides to run. He also touts his out-state bona fides as a significant plus in a field dominated by metro-area legislators.

In the ether: Former U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman, state Rep. Tom Emmer, state Sen. Michelle Fischbach, Minnesota Chamber of Commerce President David Olson, former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad and businessman Mike Vekich.
How politically tainted will Coleman be after the never-ending U.S. Senate battle with Al Franken? Several polls have indicated that Minnesotans have lost patience with his court battle. While the GOP base may be thankful to Coleman for his persistence in preventing the Democrats from establishing a filibuster proof majority in Washington, D.C., the general public is unlikely to welcome another campaign.

Ramstand faces the opposite problem. The popular former legislator would likely be formidable in a general election but is unlikely to have much cache with the GOP base.

Emmer is a conservative firebrand who loves to stir the pot. He’d at least be a wildcard in any endorsement contest.

Vekich made a bid for governor in 2002, but bowed out when it became apparent that he couldn’t win the GOP nomination. Nonetheless he’s made noises about another bid.

Next Monday: A look at the potential Green and Independence party fields.

Earlier: Who’s in for 2010: Democrats eyeing the governor’s mansion