Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s announcement earlier this month that he will not seek a third term has unleashed a political gold rush among Republican politicians in the state. Minnesota’s current political landscape includes an eye-popping 18 declared and possible gubernatorial contenders. With the list of Democratic contenders also reaching well into double digits, it promises to be one of the most wide-open gubernatorial campaigns in decades.

And if the slate of Democratic candidates was difficult to assess, the outlook for the GOP contenders is even more difficult to size up. With Pawlenty dominating the state party over the last six years, and the Republicans out of leadership in both legislative bodies since 2006, there are few household names in the bunch. In addition, the candidate that many political observers thought to be the odds-on favorite — businessman Brian Sullivan, who narrowly lost the GOP nomination to Pawlenty in 2002 — has announced that he’ll be sitting this contest out.

The Republicans’ endorsing convention is not until at least May of next year and by then the list of challengers will have undoubtedly been whittled down significantly. With Democrats holding all the down-ballot statewide posts, some of these contenders will likely turn their attention to those offices. But here’s a look at the emerging field for 2010.

Definitely in: Former Minnesota State Auditor Pat Anderson, former state Rep. Bill Haas, state Rep. Paul Kohls and House Minority Leader Marty Seifert.

Rep. Marty Seifert

Pat Anderson

Anderson and Seifert probably start out with better name recognition than any of the other contenders in the GOP field. The former is the only gubernatorial candidate to have previously won a statewide contest, but failed in her re-election bid for state auditor in 2006 in a tough year for the GOP. She’s since landed at the Minnesota Free Market Institute.

Anderson sees a change in the GOP base that has its roots in the 2006 Ron Paul presidential campaign, and that will influence the endorsement process. “It is a true libertarian Republican movement, and they’re changing the party,” she said in an interview. “There’s less discussion about social issues and more discussion about the Constitution.”

Seifert is still a relatively fresh face at age 37, but has more than a decade of experience at the state legislature, including two sessions as House minority leader. The Republican from Marshall earned notice for his cool-headed, if often caustic, opposition to the DFL majority.

Rep. Paul Kohls

Kohls is also among a cadre of prominent, young GOP legislators seeking to emerge as a statewide leader of the party. The Republican from Victoria figures Sullivan’s decision to stay on the sideline has made the race even more wide open. But he still believes the field will be winnowed down before next year’s state convention.

“I fully expect that some people will get in and not be able to raise money or generate support and will quickly get out,” he said. “I don’t think people can defer starting to raise money very long because it’s going to take some money just to put an organization together and get started.”

Former Rep. Bill Haas

Haas brings an impressive resume — 10 years in the legislature; two terms as mayor of Champlin — but has been out of the political spotlight for three years. He’ll need to ramp up his name recognition if he hopes to be a factor, but believes his status as something of an outsider could be a positive with voters. Haas said in an interview that he made the decision to run more than a year ago, dependent on whether Pawlenty bowed out.

“I’ve been watching the process and staying informed,” he said of the goings-on at the Capitol. “Minnesota is really sitting at a point now where we need to grow the economy. The backbone of our economy is small business owners and they’re hurting.”

Likely in: State Reps. Laura Brod and Morrie Lanning, state Sens. David Hann, Paul Koering and Geoff Michel, former House Majority Leader Speaker of the House Steve Sviggum and former Pawlenty Chief of Staff Charlie Weaver.

Sen. Steve Sviggum

Of this group Sviggum and Weaver are probably the best-known commodities. The former served as House Majority Leader Speaker of the House when Republicans controlled the house and has since joined the Pawlenty administration as commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry. The Kenyon Republican hasn’t officially entered the gubernatorial fray, but he’s made his interest no secret.

“I’ll do a little exploration, talk to some friends and some family over the next few days or a couple of weeks and see where it leads us,” Sviggum told Minnesota Public Radio earlier this month.

Charlie Weaver

Weaver also brings experience at multiple levels of state government. He spent almost a decade at the Capitol as a legislator, before unsuccessfully running for attorney general. Weaver then went on to serve as commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Public Safety during Jesse Ventura’s administration and as Pawlenty’s chief of staff. Currently he heads the Minnesota Business Partnership. Weaver isn’t quelling speculation that he’ll run.

“I am considering and will spend the summer looking at it very seriously,” he said. “No. 1, obviously, is my wife has to say ‘yes.’”

Weaver says the ability to raise large amounts of money will be important, noting that two prominent Democratic candidates, Matt Entenza and Mark Dayton, can utilize significant personal wealth in the contest.

Rep. Laura Brod

Sen. David Hann

Brod and Hann are among the Republican legislators who took up a more prominent leadership role in the just-completed legislative session. Both are seriously considering the gubernatorial contest, but could also be attractive options for down-ballot posts. The latter has stepped down from his leadership position in the state senate in order to test the waters, but hasn’t made his candidacy official.

“I don’t have a time-line,” Hann said of making a decision. “I’d like to come to a conclusion about that relatively quickly.”

Rep. Morrie Lanning

Lanning also confirms that he’s seriously considering the race. He’s in his fourth term at the legislature after serving as the mayor of Moorhead for 22 years.

“I’ve been very encouraged in the support I’ve been getting from around the state,” he says. “But I recognize it’s a big hill to climb.”

Sen. Paul Koering

Koering would face a unique hurdle if he decides to seek the GOP endorsement. As an openly gay legislator, many GOP activists would find his candidacy untenable. Nonetheless Koering said that he will abide by the endorsement if he ultimately decides to run. He also touts his out-state bona fides as a significant plus in a field dominated by metro-area legislators.

In the ether: Former U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman, state Rep. Tom Emmer, state Sen. Michelle Fischbach, Minnesota Chamber of Commerce President David Olson, former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad and businessman Mike Vekich.
How politically tainted will Coleman be after the never-ending U.S. Senate battle with Al Franken? Several polls have indicated that Minnesotans have lost patience with his court battle. While the GOP base may be thankful to Coleman for his persistence in preventing the Democrats from establishing a filibuster proof majority in Washington, D.C., the general public is unlikely to welcome another campaign.

Ramstand faces the opposite problem. The popular former legislator would likely be formidable in a general election but is unlikely to have much cache with the GOP base.

Emmer is a conservative firebrand who loves to stir the pot. He’d at least be a wildcard in any endorsement contest.

Vekich made a bid for governor in 2002, but bowed out when it became apparent that he couldn’t win the GOP nomination. Nonetheless he’s made noises about another bid.

Next Monday: A look at the potential Green and Independence party fields.

Earlier: Who’s in for 2010: Democrats eyeing the governor’s mansion

Bakk is part of a crowded field on both sides of the aisle. Former House Minority Leader Matt Entenza, former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton, Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner and state Sen. John Marty are all in on the DFL side, with at least a half dozen others actively eyeing the race.

The GOP field was thrown wide open last week when Pawlently announced that he would not seek a third term. So far state Reps. Laura Brod and Paul Kohls, state Sens. David Hann and Paul Koering, former State Auditor Patricia Anderson, House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, former House Majority Leader Steve Sviggum and former Pawlenty chief of staff Charlie Weaver have all expressed some level of interest in the race.

“We don’t have term limits in Minnesota, but we do have good judgment and common sense,” Pawlenty said. “Time marches on and now it’s time to give someone else a chance.”

The governor, however, refused to be drawn into speculation that the move is an indication that he harbors presidential ambitions. “I don’t have any plans beyond serving out my term,” Pawlenty insisted. “I’m not ruling anything in or out.”

In recent weeks, Pawlenty has drawn plaudits from conservative quarters for his hard-line stance on fixing the state’s budget problems without raising taxes. Americans for Tax Reform, arguably the country’s most stridently anti-tax advocacy group, named him a “Hero of the Taxpayer.” An op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal praised his budget maneuvers as a potential blueprint for how the national GOP could get its groove back.

At today’s press conference, Pawlenty brandished his fiscal conservative bona fides on several occasions. “The fact that we’ve brought more competition to Minnesota by keeping a lid on taxes and spending is really important,” he said when asked about his proudest achievements in office.

But Pawlenty continued to plead ignorance about any national political plans. When asked at the press conference if he intended to start a political-action committee, he professed uncertainty about the logistics of setting up such an organization.

The governor’s decision not to attempt a three-peat is also viewed by many political observers as bad news for Al Franken. The reason: It may suggest that Pawlenty will be emboldened to hold off signing an election certificate even if Franken prevails in the U.S. Senate contest at the Minnesota Supreme Court, as is widely anticipated. Such a maneuver would curry favor with the party’s base and the GOP leadership in the nation’s capital, but it would likely doom any statewide political ambitions in Minnesota.

Pawlenty’s remarks on this matter in the past have been ambiguous. Today he stated that he would adhere to the directives of the courts. “I think you guys have really over-baked that issue,” he said. “You’re really spinning out of control on that.”

In cold political terms, the decision not to run for re-election was probably not particularly difficult. Although polling released since the end of the legislative session has indicated that Pawlenty is still relatively popular, he would have faced an extremely difficult battle. He failed to garner 50 percent of the vote in his first two runs for the top office and Democrats have made significant electoral gains in the last two election cycles. In addition, it’s uncertain how Pawlenty’s budgetary hardball will play with Minnesota voters. Defeat at the ballot box in 2010 would surely doom any future national ambitions.

But the governor insisted that fear of losing played no part in his decision. “I absolutely could have won and I think would have won a third term,” he said.

Pawlenty’s decision not to seek re-election likely means there will be a crowded field of contenders for the GOP crown in next year’s gubernatorial contest. Among the names in the ether: former Pawlenty chief of staff Charlie Weaver, former House Speaker Steve Sviggum, House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, former State Auditor Patricia Anderson, state Sens. David Hann and Julie Rosen, state Reps. Paul Kohls and Laura Brod, former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad and GOP National Committeeman Brian Sullivan.

One potential candidate unlikely to run: Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau.
“Someone once told me never say never,” Molnau said at the press conference, “but I think it’s probably highly unlikely that I would be looking at a governorship.”

Perhaps the closest Pawlenty came to admitting national political ambitions during the press conference was when he talked about helping to rebuild the Republican Party after significant electoral setbacks during the last four years. “It’s got to be a party that can accommodate both Colin Powell and Rush Limbaugh if we’re going to be successful,” he said, taking a not-so-subtle swipe at former Vice President Dick Cheney.

Pawlenty also showcased the aw-shucks political skills that have made him a player in national politics. Near the close of the press conference, he insisted that his ideal job has nothing to do with politics.

“My dream job is to be an NHL defenseman, but at 48 and having no skill it’s tough,” he laughed.

Running for re-election in 2010 would be a risky proposition for Pawlenty. He’s twice won office with less than 50 percent of the vote, and in 2008 he benefited from the implosion of Democrat Mike Hatch’s campaign in the final week before election day.

Furthermore, it’s unknown what kind of political blowback Pawlenty will receive once the dust has settled on the state’s ongoing budget problems. Early polling by SurveyUSA suggested that the Republican governor came out of the session with reasonably good prospects for re-election. But that’s before he unilaterally cuts roughly $1 billion from the budget. Losing a re-election bid would almost certainly derail Pawlenty’s national political ambitions.

Speculation will now turn to who will fill the gubernatorial void for the GOP. It’s likely to be a crowded field. Some names expected to be in the mix: former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, former Pawlenty chief of staff Charlie Weaver, House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, former House Speaker Steve Sviggum, state Rep. Laura Brod and state Sen. Julie Rosen.

Pawlenty’s decision will also undoubtedly ramp up speculation that he’s going to run for president in 2012.