Bachmann represents the most conservative district in the state, but remains at risk owing to her flamboyant personality and controversial media appearances. She won a second term last year by just three percentage points and is likely to face at least three challengers for her post in 2010. CQ Politics lists the races as leaning Republican and states that the CD6 fight is likely to be one of the nation’s most expensive in 2010, with “plenty of out-of-state money flowing into the district” on both sides.

Paulsen represents a swing district, but won his first term by a surprisingly comfortable eight-point margin in 2008. No challengers have yet emerged for 2010. CQ Politics also rates this contest as favoring the Republican incumbent.

Only two other Minnesota representatives are viewed as marginally at risk in 2010: Democratic Rep. Tim Walz and Republican Rep. John Kline. CQ Politics lists both contests as favoring the incumbent party. Minnesota’s other four congressional districts are deemed safely in the hands of the Democrats.

Sen. Richard Burr

CQ Politics reported today that a GOP Web ad aims to raise money for Norm Coleman so Republicans can count on having 42 votes in the U.S. Senate. Huh? Turns out the YouTube video the story describes — replete with pleading cameos from nine senators and two others — is three months old. (CQ Politics has since pulled the post but it’s still available via Yahoo.) Even so, the new-media misfire has value as a short-term time capsule, revealing how far fortunes have fallen for Coleman and his party.

Some choice quotes from the CQ Politics post:

“A little bit of money right now could make the difference,” [Sen. James] Inhofe [R-Ok.] implored.

That pitch made more sense in February, with Coleman’s election-contest trial underway, but that effort succeeded only in increasing Franken’s lead to 312 votes. Now Coleman has only one reply brief to file and an oral argument to make before the Minnesota Supreme Court takes his appeal of the trial court’s decision into their own hands.

“We need 42 Republicans .. . We need to start the trend of growing the Republican minority so we can be the majority,” [Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C.] said.

The number 42 is what really dates the story to the Pre-Specterian Era. With Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter’s defection from the Republican Party, Democrats are now close enough to reaching 60 seats (leaving the GOP with 40) that Majority Leader Harry Reid can feel it.

Here’s the Coleman for Senate video, for old times’ sake:

Featured, besides Inhofe and Burr, are Sens. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.; Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn.; John Cornyn, R-Texas; John Thune, R-S.D.; Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.; Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska; and Bob Corker, R-Tenn., along with House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Michael Steele, chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Saving grace: no Specter.

The Cook Political Report has changed its assessment of the contest from “lean Republican” to a toss up. CQ Politics has also shifted its ranking of the race, from “Republican favored” to the less rosy “leans Republican.”

“If Rep. Michele Bachmann limps to the finish line on Election Day — either ahead or behind — it is because she shot herself in the foot,” writes CQ’s Jonathan Allen in laying out the rationale for the change.

At the end of September, Paulsen’s campaign bank account had $1.1 to Madia’s $995,000 — putting the two 3rd Congressional District contenders in second and third place, respectively, for most cash-on-hand among open-seat contenders, behind only Democrat John Adler in New Jersey’s 3rd District.

The third candidate running to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, David Dillon of the Independence Party, is far behind Paulsen and Madia in fundraising, but has his own claim to fame: He’s in the top 10 nationally among congressional candidates for the proportion of his campaign war chest that is self-funded.

CQ Politics rates the Minnesota race “No Clear Favorite.”