Paulsen sign, Election Night

Minnesota’s U.S. representative-elect for the Third District, Republican Erik Paulsen, ran one of the best five House campaigns in the country, according to the Washington Post blog The Fix. Paulsen “beat back the anti-Republican trend,” writes Chris Cillizza (citing President-elect Barack Obama’s showing and Al Franken’s apparent success), “by focusing on his own accomplishments in the state legislature.”

The Fix tracked the Third District contest closely throughout the campaign season as one of the nation’s most competitive — and expensive — congressional races, with Democrat Ashwin Madia and David Dillon of the Independence Party vying with Paulsen to replace Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, who is retiring. And Paulsen’s margin of victory was wider than the recount-tight result that most polls appeared to predict (48 percent of the vote compared to 41 for Madia and 11 for Dillon).

But in several ways Cillizza’s summary this morning doesn’t exactly square with how home-state observers might recall the race:

- It may almost be timely, but it’s still a bit silly to cite a prospective victory by Democrat Franken over incumbent U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman as part of any anti-Republican factor in the Third District, since Madia outperformed Franken there.

- With Dillon pulling down more than 10 percent, this contest was a better example of how Republicans win three-way races than how Paulsen bucked an anti-Republican trend that wasn’t a game-changer in any of Minnesota’s congressional races. Even Republican U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, despite her best efforts, won by 3 percentage points, in another race with an Independence Party candidate topping 10 percent.

- Far from focusing on it, Paulsen ran away from his record as one of the most conservative members of the state Legislature.

- What the Republican campaign did focus on (but Cillizza didn’t mention) was how Paulsen, a white homeowner and father of four, fit the district’s “demographics” better then Madia, a single renter of South Asian descent. That point, made by Paulsen stand-ins at not one but two ham-handed state Capitol press conference appearances, was underscored by a National Republican Congressional Committee ad that made Madia’s skin darker and drew worldwide rebuke.

Here’s the full item on Paulsen from The Fix, followed by a video from one of the press conferences where Paulsen’s “demographics,” not his accomplishments, were the focus.

At first glance, the retirement of Rep. Jim Ramstad (R) presented an ideal pickup opportunity for national Democrats. The suburban Twin Cities seat gave President George W. Bush a narrow 51 percent victory in 2004 and looked to be the epicenter of anti-war movement in the state. And, when Democrats nominated Iraq war veteran Ashwin Madia, it looked like a tailor-made pickup. Enter state Sen. [sic] Erik Paulsen, one of the best (and only) recruits for House Republicans in 2008. Paulsen was able to beat back the anti-Republican trend in the state (Obama won the state by 10 points and it appears as though Al Franken is going to win the Senate seat) by focusing on his own accomplishments in the state legislature. A rare bit of good news for Republicans nationally.

(Hat tip to Political Animal for spotting The Fix’s error in ID’ing Paulsen as a state senator — he’s a state Rep.)

The Minnesota DFL Party put together this highlight reel of remarks by state Republican Party Chair Ron Carey and state Sen. Geoff Michel speaking on behalf of Paulsen:

This is the second e-mail about this poll release situation and I have no idea what it’s about.  We release poll results to the campaigns only if they ask for them.  And then only with the understanding they are not to shared with anyone else in anyway (news releases, etc) until after we air them.  As for the last poll, I had one phone message from the Paulsen campaign Sunday morning after they heard on “At Issue” that we would have results Sunday night.  I called them back about five hours later and left them a message to call back for the results.  They never called. I’m not certain if they got them from someone else, but generally I coordinate all polling and release of the information.

I also asked Hauser about whether it was true, as David Dillon’s campaign manager told me today, that complaints about the Independence Party candidate being left off Survey USA’s candidate preference question in the firm’s first poll last week led to a do-over survey in its second 3rd District poll, which was released yesterday. Hauser:

Yes, that is true.  SurveyUSA had earlier done a poll in that race for ”Roll Call” out of Washington, D.C. back in September.  “Roll Call” only had them survey Madia and Paulsen, not understanding the importance and tradition of third-party candidates in Minnesota.  We later commissione[d] our own poll (as a separate SurveyUSA client) and included Dillon.  When we ordered our final poll in the race, SurveyUSA mistakenly duplicated the original “Roll Call” poll question that only included two names, rather than ours, which included all three.  When I pointed this out they agreed to do it again free of charge.  The first poll [done last week] had Paulsen up by one, the second (with Dillon included) had Paulsen up by 5.

Another way Paulsen’s ahead: KSTP gave Paulsen’s campaign an early preview of the poll results, according to Joe Bodell at Minnesota Campaign Report. Citing unnamed sources, Bodell writes that KSTP revealed the poll results to Paulsen but didn’t tell Madia until Madia’s staff, having heard heard Paulsen’s campaign had the information, called KSTP to ask if they could also see the new numbers too.

Madia spokesman Dan Pollock wouldn’t comment except to say that the results contradict the anecdotal evidence the campaign is seeing on the ground. MnIndy is awaiting comment from KSTP. Dillon campaign manager Bruce Anderson tells the Minnesota Independent that Dillon didn’t get a head’s up; Anderson learned the poll results by watching the news. When told of the Minnesota Campaign Report story, he said he’s skeptical of anything sinister and anyway doesn’t see a big advantage for Paulsen in hearing poll results early.

Anderson did have a problem with Survey USA’s previous poll, however, in which Dillon’s name wasn’t part of the candidate preference question. (“Some other candidate” was the wording instead.) His complaint to Survey USA prompted the firm to admit its mistake and offer to do another poll using Dillon’s name and without charging KSTP, Anderson said.

The re-do poll shows a sudden swing in a race that has looked effectively tied in previous polls, including a Survey USA poll that came out just a day before the polling began for this one. Survey USA suggests Paulsen’s lead might be due to a TV ad showing Madia with darker skin than the son of Indian immigrants really has. But if so, the effect would seem to arise more from widespread news reports about the ad’s darkening technique rather than the National Republican Congressional Committee’s ad itself. The NRCC released its ad a full week before the first of Survey USA’s pair of back-to-back polls last week.

The new 3rd District survey results were ready on Halloween along with a separate survey showing a tie in Minnesota’s 6th District race between Republican U.S. Rep. Michelle Bachmann and Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg. But KSTP waited until yesterday to announce the news along with results from two other new Survey USA polls: a dead heat for U.S. Senate and a remarkably small 3-point deficit in the state for Republican presidential candidate U.S. Sen. John McCain. That result led Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com to observe that “SurveyUSA’s polling in Minnesota has been very, very weird all year… SurveyUSA does not have a Republican lean in general, but in Minnesota, it has consistently had a huge one.”

Survey USA seems to have taken to heart criticism of earlier 3rd District polls in which the pollster posed the candidate preference differently. This time the question matches the firm’s Oct. 6–7 poll question, with each candidate, including Dillon, identified by name and party. Survey USA’s analysis also finds the pollster apparently responding to criticism that it isn’t trying to count Minnesotans who are likely to vote but will register at the polls:

Respondents for this survey were chosen at random from Minnesota registered voter lists. Minnesota allows same-day registration, and any in Minnesota who on Election Day 2008 register and vote for the first time are undercounted here. If same-day registrants disproportionately favor one candidate, that candidate’s support will be understated here, but that is just one source of possible error when polling a contest as volatile as this one now is.

Here’s Survey USA on the possible influence of the NRCC skin-darkened ad in the 3rd District race:

Coincidence? Or Correlation? Women, Whites Look Twice at ‘Darkened’ Madia in Minnesota’s 6th District … In three previous SurveyUSA polls, the Democrat and Republican were separated by 3 or fewer points. Then, ads appeared with photographs of Madia that may have been altered to darken his skin color. It is impossible to know whether the ads had much to do, or nothing to do, with these newest poll numbers: Madia’s support among whites has dropped from 45% on 10/08/08 to 39% today. Madia’s support among women has dropped from 46% on 10/08/08 to 41% today. Madia’s support among Independents has dropped from 43% earlier this week to 34% today. When all of the demographic subgroups are combined… 42% of voters now have an unfavorable opinion of Madia, almost twice the 23% Madia unfavorable number that SurveyUSA found on 08/29/08.

As voters in conservative-leaning and moderate districts are learning, topics such as war and the economy affect them far more than the private decisions their neighbors make. Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District is such a district, and the race between Republican Erik Paulsen and DFLer Madia is being watched closely. Can a Democratic candidate for Congress win in a moderate suburban district on a platform that includes equality for gays and lesbians?

Democrats are watching the race in the suburbs west on Minneapolis as Iraq veteran Madia has been unequivocal in his support for gay and lesbian equality throughout his campaign. But it’s not a position he came to lightly.

A personal transformation

As student body president at the University of Minnesota in 1997, Madia was a conservative and a Republican. According to Minnesota Daily archives, the student government, with Madia at the helm, significantly reduced the amount of student fees money going to the Queer Student Cultural Center (QSCC), the only gay-straight alliance on campus.

Madia’s turn-about happened while he was a U.S. Marine. As a member of the judge advocate general’s corps in the Marines, Madia was assigned to defend the case of a servicemember who was being discharged because he is gay. Madia was one of the first attorneys in history to successfully defend a fellow Marine against the military’s discriminatory “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy.

“Real patriotism sometimes means taking on the system if you know what you’re doing is the right thing,” he said of taking the case.

In 2005, Madia took on a client who had downloaded gay pornography on a government computer and was caught. The same day, another Marine had gotten caught doing the same thing, only the pornography was heterosexual in nature.

“The gay Marine was given a demotion in rank; loss of pay; restricted in his movements on base; and, most severe of all, an administrative separation from the Marine Corps with an Other-Than-Honorable (OTH) discharge, just one step below a court martial,” Madia said. “The straight Marine received a verbal reprimand by the commanding officer.”

Madia successfully argued to a panel of Marines that the disparity in punishment was unjust. They agreed.

His client was able to continue his career with the Marines, but Madia was concerned about the man’s well-being now that he had been outed as gay. Madia checked up on him. “When PFC Smith got on the phone, he was calm and his voice level toned. He said, ‘Sir, nobody cares about that stuff,’” Madia recalled.

“If the Marines, some of the most conservative members of our society, can look beyond sexual preference, maybe the rest of America can do so too,” says Madia. “If someone is willing to wear the uniform, fight, and possibly die for this country, it shouldn’t matter who they are and who they love.”

While Madia was serving in Iraq, the issue hit closer to home as one of his siblings came out to him as gay. Family members relate that Madia sought out information to understand more about the issue, and came back to Minnesota fully embracing his gay sibling.

Megan Thomas was the administrative assistant at the QSCC in 1997 when Madia ran the conservative student government at the University of Minnesota. She says that the Madia’s growth in understanding the controversial issues surrounding gay and lesbian issues has brought him to the side of equality.

“Since then Madia has grown and has seen the error that was. So, let me state this as clearly as possible,” she wrote recently. “As someone who was part of that whole brouhaha, as a former chair of the Stonewall DFL Caucus and as an out lesbian, I have no doubt whatsoever in Ashwin Madia’s support of and dedication to GLBT issues and people.”

Going on the offensive

In debates, Madia, often joined by Independence Party candidate David Dillon, have been taking Paulsen to task for his push for constitutional amendments banning civil unions and same-sex marriage, which for three years during his tenure as House majority leader were the topic of intense debate and media hype.

“I look at the happiness my parents have through their marriage, and I wouldn’t want to deny that to anybody. But what’s important is that — and this is a difference between the candidates — I wouldn’t take government time away from dealing with Iraq or the economy for these kinds of constitutional amendments,” Madia said at a Sept. 16 debate.

He followed up at a Minnetonka debate on Sept. 22. “There are so many things that we ought to be focusing on, that I don’t think we ought to be using public dollars or our constitution to try to impose our religious beliefs on other people,” Madia said of Paulsen’s amendment push.

“I’ve come to like both of the guys sitting at the table with me,” Dillon added. “The plain fact of the matter is that Erik has come out of the right wing of the Republican Party.”

Paulsen defended himself saying, “That is not what I’ve done in the state Legislature,” noting that he hadn’t made any floor speeches in support of the amendments. He might not have made any floor speeches, but he voted for the measures each time, and as House Majority Leader, he made them a priority amongst his caucus.

Indeed Paulsen has focused on the issue of banning same-sex marriage by constitutional amendment (it has already been made illegal by statute), so much so that religious right figurehead James Dobson of Focus on the Family praised Paulsen for his efforts in a letter to district voters.

Turning the controversy over social issues back onto Republicans is not an approach that DFLers often take when it comes to LGBT equality in the suburbs. But the 3rd Congressional District is more diverse than the suburbs north, east and south of the Twin Cities.

Almost 6 percent of voters identify as gay, lesbian or bisexual, according to the Williams Institute at UCLA, easily within the margin of this very close race. That’s 26,000 voters, and that doesn’t count the friends and family of those voters who are much more likely to support an equality candidate. In addition, the 3rd District lies to the west of the 5th Congressional District, which has one of the highest percentage of gay, lesbian and bisexual voters in the state, ranking ninth out of 435 districts nationwide.

It might be the reason Rep. Jim Ramstad, the moderate Republican retiring from the district this year, supported a key piece of LGBT legislation — the Employment Non-Discrimination Act. On that issue, Madia is much more closely aligned with Ramstad than is Paulsen.

A candidate to watch

DFL Rep. Tim Walz demonstrated in 2006 that a Democratic candidate can win in a moderate rural district while supporting LGBT equality. Democrats are hoping that a Madia win on Tuesday will demonstrate that honesty and fairness regarding LGBT equality can be a positive in a moderate suburban district.

“I think what Ashwin has realized is that there are larger issues which unite us than the divisive social tactics some Republicans have used in the past to try to win elections,” said Jon Hoadley, executive director of Stonewall Democrats, an LGBT group affiliated with the Democratic Party. “I think Ashwin Madia represents a new generation in Congress who says, ‘Let’s focus on the fundamentals that we were elected to work on. Let’s give everyone a fair shot, and let’s get back to tackling the issues important to our constituents.’”

Hoadley says that it’s important for candidates to be direct with voters. “Ashwin has also been honest with voters [on LGBT equality]. He’s stated his position and then turned back to focus on the larger issues which impact his district. And we’ve seen voters say ‘OK, I see where you’re coming from.”

Even if voters don’t agree on LGBT issues, Hoadley says there is trust built when candidates are honest with voters. “It’s that honest answer that has allowed him to tackle those things which impact all of us. I think voters have been lied to enough by politicians in the past that they truly appreciate an honest, straightforward answer by a candidate like Ashwin.”

Walz, a National Guard veteran, took the same approach, and while Republicans attacked him for his support, the voters rewarded him with a seat in Congress. “For some reason, it is the same approach that has also been embraced by numerous Iraq War veterans running for office, like former Army Captain Patrick Murphy who was elected to Congress from Pennsylvania in 2006,” noted Hoadley. “Perhaps it’s the belief that their service to the people whom they fought for on the battlefield extends beyond the war zone and onto the home front. Servicemembers are remarkable that way, and Ashwin Madia is a remarkable candidate.”

After naming him in the question posed in a poll earlier this month, Survey USA oddly dropped a direct reference to Dillon when it polled 642 likely voters Oct. 26–27. (The pollster hasn’t yet responded to MnIndy’s request to explain why references to third party support have been inconsistent in its three surveys of the 3rd District.) If you get an anti-Dillon mailing, please share it with MnIndy.

UPDATE: Joe Bodell at Minnesota Campaign Report has this high-contrast scan of the mailer and speculates writes that it’s being sent to Democrats. His theory goes that the NRCC might be using reverse psychology (if “reverse” is quite the right term in a three-way race) to draw Dems to Dillon by chargin him with being too far left politically.

While Dobson is quick to point out that he never endorses candidates for office, he does his best to sway voters toward candidates that agree with his religious views. Arguably the most influential member of the religious right, Dobson is using his name to promote Republican Erik Paulsen in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District.

Dobson’s Focus on the Family Action is sending letters to residents of the district signed by Dobson (PDF), reminding them of Paulsen’s views on issues like abortion and gay and lesbian equality.

Dobson writes, “For one thing, [Paulsen]’s pro-life and has backed that up with a stellar record in the Minnesota House.”

He continues, “For another, Erik Paulsen believes that the institution of marriage is worth protecting, and he helped lead the effort in the legislature to pass a constitutional amendment to preserve marriage as the union of one man and one woman.”

And while Dobson praises Paulsen’s involvement with the constitutional amendment push, in debates with DFLer Ashwin Madia and Independence Party candidate Davis Dillon, Paulsen has downplayed his role.

At a Sept. 22 debate in Minnetonka, Madia and Dillon both called Paulsen out for just the type of advocacy of anti-abortion and anti-gay and lesbian positions that Dobson praised.

“There are so many things that we ought to be focusing on, that I don’t think we ought to be using public dollars or our constitution to try to impose our religious beliefs on other people,” said Madia.

“I’ve come to like both of the guys sitting at the table with me,” Dillon said. “The plain fact of the matter is that Erik has come out of the right wing of the Republican Party.”

Paulsen said, “That is not what I’ve done in the state legislature.”

Paulsen should tell Dobson. He concludes the letter, “Contact Erik Paulsen and thank him for his common-sense, pro-family stands — and urge him to stand strong in the face of attacks from the angry Left.”

Also today, two local print news outlets made endorsements — one for Paulsen and one for Madia. See the video and read excerpts after the jump.

Madia for Congress: “Check It Out”

From the Eden Prairie News:

In the Third District, Independence Party candidate David Dillon and DFL candidate Ashwin Madia both offer good ideas and are excellent candidates, but Erik Paulsen gets the nod, for his consistent service to the community, his 14 years of experience and his record. Paulsen has spearheaded initiatives supporting doing business with India and encouraging the study of Mandarin Chinese in Minnesota school districts, showing a global focus. He has pledged to work in a bipartisan way. Dillon raises the hope that reform could come to Washington in the form of independent voices not beholden to a party or lobby. We hope to hear more from him, especially on solutions for economic and immigration issues. All candidates should have a “humor” section on their Web sites, as he does.

From the ECM Editorial Board’s endorsement carried in the Coon Rapids Herald:

It was apparent from those interviews that all three [including Independence Party candidate David Dillon] seem to want to continue the Frenzel-Ramstad mold, but in our view Madia, a former Republican, offers the best hope that this tradition of moderation and bipartisanship will continue. … Indeed, Madia talks like a deficit hawk and says he is willing to work with both sides, including conservative bluedog Democrats and moderate Republicans, to achieve a balance budget. … But Madia has a unique understanding of the situation in Iraq because he served a tour of duty in that country as a member of the U.S. Marine Corps. A lawyer by profession, his role was to help the Iraqis put in place a new legal system. … Change is needed in Congress and while it was close call, Madia is a better fit for the 3rd Congressional District than Paulsen.

At the end of September, Paulsen’s campaign bank account had $1.1 to Madia’s $995,000 — putting the two 3rd Congressional District contenders in second and third place, respectively, for most cash-on-hand among open-seat contenders, behind only Democrat John Adler in New Jersey’s 3rd District.

The third candidate running to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, David Dillon of the Independence Party, is far behind Paulsen and Madia in fundraising, but has his own claim to fame: He’s in the top 10 nationally among congressional candidates for the proportion of his campaign war chest that is self-funded.

CQ Politics rates the Minnesota race “No Clear Favorite.”

Speaker of the U.S. House Nancy Pelosi (shown), U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Minnesota House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher will kick off an apparently new Women for Madia campaign in Bloomington Monday morning. Photo: house.gov

Two indications that the tight 3rd Congressional District race remains in the nation’s crosshairs, even as U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s antics in the 6th District grab headlines.

First, the big guns keep coming: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., whose very name and title are enough to spur derisive jeers at Republican rallies, will campaign in person with DFL 3rd District candidate Ashwin Madia today. (Republican House Minority Leader John Boehner visited the state on Paulsen’s behalf last week.)

And the national media continue to turn attention to the Twin Cities’ western suburbs. (Today it’s a profile of the contest with focus on Madia in the Washington Post — whose Chris Cillizza, keeper of The Fix blog, on Friday abruptly and inexplicably left the 3rd District race off his list of the 25 races for U.S. House where parties are most likely to lose seats, to the consternation of commenters.)

But in a sign that the spectacle in the 6th is drawing focus and donation dollars, Madia released a statement this morning, saying, “Bachmann’s comments represent the very worst in American politics.”

‘Disturbing’ Paulsen ad
Over the weekend, Republican state Sen. Erik Paulsen released a new ad called “Disturbing” that stays warm and fuzzy for about two seconds before turning on the attack graphics and low-register voice-over delivering (disputed) warnings about who Madia will tax and how often he has lied about it:

Three-way debate
KSTP-TV hosted a debate with all three candidates Friday evening. Here is the full hourlong video:

Dillon speaks!
Earlier on Friday, Independence Party candidate David Dillon took his turn in the U of M Humphrey Institute’s series of noontime events with the 3rd District contenders. (Madia and Paulsen appeared earlier in the week.) Here is a liveblog of the Dillon event, courtesy of the Humphrey Institute’s Smart Politics blog, which also profiled the race over the weekend. And here is audio from Dillon’s appearance, courtesy of MPR’s Polinaut blog (if audio player doesn’t appear below, visit the Polinaut page: