The most obvious dark-horse challenger is the Independence Party. Ever since Jesse Ventura blew up the political conventional wisdom by winning the gubernatorial contest in 1998, the IP has been a formidable factor every four years.

Former U.S. Rep Tim Penny

In 2002, former U.S. Rep. Tim Penny brought broad name recognition and moderate policy credentials to the contest. He ultimately pulled just 16 percent of the vote, but was likely hurt by heightened partisanship in the wake of U.S. Sen. Paul Wellstone’s death.

“The final week of that campaign everything changed,” recalls Penny, now president of the Southern Minnesota Initiative Foundation. “I went from being as likely a victor as the other two to being the odd man out in just a number of days.”

Four years later the IP endorsed Peter Hutchinson, a former state finance commissioner, foundation executive and deputy mayor of Minneapolis. But his broad resume didn’t ultimately hold much sway with voters: He managed just six percent of the vote.

Despite these declining fortunes, the IP has retained its major party status, meaning it’s guaranteed a spot on the ballot. So who else might be looking at the party’s endorsement for 2010?

Penny says he’s not interested, noting that foundation work and other endeavors keep him plenty busy. But he’s optimistic that the IP will run a credible candidate.

“Every year there’s a path for an independent candidate to get from the starting gate to the winner’s circle,” he says. “I think there’s a path this year given the fact that it’s going to be wide open.”

Another perennial contender, Dean Barkley (pictured), isn’t ruling anything out. Outside of Ventura, Barkley has been the most visible face of the IP over the last two decades. Most recently, he siphoned off 15 percent of the vote in the (still ongoing) U.S. Senate bloodbath between Norm Coleman and Al Franken.

“I have some mild interest in it,” Barkley says. “I wouldn’t call it a great deal of interest, but I’m at least looking at it.”

In other words: Barkley will fall on his sword and run again if no other credible candidate emerges. The IP is currently in the process of gauging interest among other potential challengers.

Rep. Jim Ramstad. Photo: Lauren Victoria Burke, WDCpix

Heading up that effort is Jack Uldrich, the party’s chairman. Among the folks he’s contacted about the contest: former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad (pictured), Metropolitan Council Chair Peter Bell and Minnesota Chamber of Commerce President David Olson. Uldrich argues that the decision of Gov. Tim Pawlenty not to seek a third term provides an opportunity for the IP to become a larger factor in the contest.

“He was difficult for both Peter Hutchinson and Tim Penny to run against because he appears more moderate than he actually is,” Uldrich says. “That will make it easier for us.

Uldrich further argues that the potential of wealthy Democratic candidates (i.e. Mark Dayton and Matt Entenza) to bypass the endorsement process and run in a contested primary could provide a further opening for third-party candidates. “They’re going to have really a bloodbath on that side,” he says. “They’re going to go to a primary and they’re going to come out of that pretty weak.”

While the IP is almost certain to be a factor in the 2010 gubernatorial contest, other third parties will have to scrap mightily for any electoral clout. The Green Party of Minnesota previously was accorded major party status, but lost that pedigree after failing to garner five percent of the vote in any of the statewide contests in 2006. Even with guaranteed ballot access the Greens have never won more than two percent of the vote in a governor’s race.

According to Cam Gordon, a Minneapolis City Council member and Green Party activist, the party has formed a committee to explore options for 2010. But so far no candidates have indicated that they’ll be seeking the party’s endorsement and the Greens are likely to focus on local contests.

“I’m feeling somewhat hopeful,” says Gordon of the party’s overall prospects in 2010. “But I think it’s been a hard time for the Greens the last few years. It will really be a turning point for us if we can get somebody elected to the state House.”

At least one candidate will be running as a Green — but has no intention of seeking the party’s official backing. Richard Klatte says he grew tired of the party’s disorganization and lack of candidate recruitment strategies.

“I’ve gone to the meetings and they’ve totally ignored me and my ideas,” says Klatte, who hosts a cable-access program called Third Party Forum and has made unsuccessful runs for office several times previously. “It’s a waste of time.”

Further undermining the Green Party’s prospects are the plans of Ken Pentel (pictured). The environmental activist was the party’s official nominee in both 2002 and 2006. But Pentel has split ties with the Greens and is in the early stages of building his own political organization called the Ecology Democracy Network.

Pentel has been traveling the state by bicycle and recruiting supporters for the fledgling coalition, with roughly 150 people currently in the fold. The organization will advocate for radical changes to economic, agricultural and electoral policies in order to avert what he believes is looming environmental devastation.

“There is no political party, there is no political movement that is literally dealing with this,” he says. “Everybody’s scared. We sit around on our hands rationalizing it.”

Pentel expects to develop a political party sometime this fall and hopes to have 100 candidates running in the 2010 elections, with himself at the top of the ticket. The break with the Greens comes after mounting frustration at the party’s lack of electoral success.

“The people who got into the decision-making positions were not that interested in building a political party to power,” argues Pentel. “They didn’t want to develop candidates, recruit candidate and get on the ballot line.”

While Pentel’s political organization is still in its embryonic stages, at least one 2010 hopeful is eschewing party politics all together. Chris Wright registered with the Minnesota Campaign Finance Board in December to run for governor. He’s a computer technician and former activist with the (now defunct) Grassroots Party, which focused primarily on marijuana legalization.

“What I really wanted to do is raise some issues that are simply not being raised by either of the two major parties,” says Wright, citing energy independence and drug legalization. “The only ones who make money on the prohibition of narcotics are the cops and the gangs. Let’s stop doing this.”

Of course, Wright will undoubtedly find it extremely difficult to get these opinions heard without the backing of a political party — major or minor. His previous run for Governor, in 1998, doesn’t inspire confidence in his prospects: he garnered 1,727 votes, or .1 percent of all votes cast.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s announcement earlier this month that he will not seek a third term has unleashed a political gold rush among Republican politicians in the state. Minnesota’s current political landscape includes an eye-popping 18 declared and possible gubernatorial contenders. With the list of Democratic contenders also reaching well into double digits, it promises to be one of the most wide-open gubernatorial campaigns in decades.

And if the slate of Democratic candidates was difficult to assess, the outlook for the GOP contenders is even more difficult to size up. With Pawlenty dominating the state party over the last six years, and the Republicans out of leadership in both legislative bodies since 2006, there are few household names in the bunch. In addition, the candidate that many political observers thought to be the odds-on favorite — businessman Brian Sullivan, who narrowly lost the GOP nomination to Pawlenty in 2002 — has announced that he’ll be sitting this contest out.

The Republicans’ endorsing convention is not until at least May of next year and by then the list of challengers will have undoubtedly been whittled down significantly. With Democrats holding all the down-ballot statewide posts, some of these contenders will likely turn their attention to those offices. But here’s a look at the emerging field for 2010.

Definitely in: Former Minnesota State Auditor Pat Anderson, former state Rep. Bill Haas, state Rep. Paul Kohls and House Minority Leader Marty Seifert.

Rep. Marty Seifert

Pat Anderson

Anderson and Seifert probably start out with better name recognition than any of the other contenders in the GOP field. The former is the only gubernatorial candidate to have previously won a statewide contest, but failed in her re-election bid for state auditor in 2006 in a tough year for the GOP. She’s since landed at the Minnesota Free Market Institute.

Anderson sees a change in the GOP base that has its roots in the 2006 Ron Paul presidential campaign, and that will influence the endorsement process. “It is a true libertarian Republican movement, and they’re changing the party,” she said in an interview. “There’s less discussion about social issues and more discussion about the Constitution.”

Seifert is still a relatively fresh face at age 37, but has more than a decade of experience at the state legislature, including two sessions as House minority leader. The Republican from Marshall earned notice for his cool-headed, if often caustic, opposition to the DFL majority.

Rep. Paul Kohls

Kohls is also among a cadre of prominent, young GOP legislators seeking to emerge as a statewide leader of the party. The Republican from Victoria figures Sullivan’s decision to stay on the sideline has made the race even more wide open. But he still believes the field will be winnowed down before next year’s state convention.

“I fully expect that some people will get in and not be able to raise money or generate support and will quickly get out,” he said. “I don’t think people can defer starting to raise money very long because it’s going to take some money just to put an organization together and get started.”

Former Rep. Bill Haas

Haas brings an impressive resume — 10 years in the legislature; two terms as mayor of Champlin — but has been out of the political spotlight for three years. He’ll need to ramp up his name recognition if he hopes to be a factor, but believes his status as something of an outsider could be a positive with voters. Haas said in an interview that he made the decision to run more than a year ago, dependent on whether Pawlenty bowed out.

“I’ve been watching the process and staying informed,” he said of the goings-on at the Capitol. “Minnesota is really sitting at a point now where we need to grow the economy. The backbone of our economy is small business owners and they’re hurting.”

Likely in: State Reps. Laura Brod and Morrie Lanning, state Sens. David Hann, Paul Koering and Geoff Michel, former House Majority Leader Speaker of the House Steve Sviggum and former Pawlenty Chief of Staff Charlie Weaver.

Sen. Steve Sviggum

Of this group Sviggum and Weaver are probably the best-known commodities. The former served as House Majority Leader Speaker of the House when Republicans controlled the house and has since joined the Pawlenty administration as commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry. The Kenyon Republican hasn’t officially entered the gubernatorial fray, but he’s made his interest no secret.

“I’ll do a little exploration, talk to some friends and some family over the next few days or a couple of weeks and see where it leads us,” Sviggum told Minnesota Public Radio earlier this month.

Charlie Weaver

Weaver also brings experience at multiple levels of state government. He spent almost a decade at the Capitol as a legislator, before unsuccessfully running for attorney general. Weaver then went on to serve as commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Public Safety during Jesse Ventura’s administration and as Pawlenty’s chief of staff. Currently he heads the Minnesota Business Partnership. Weaver isn’t quelling speculation that he’ll run.

“I am considering and will spend the summer looking at it very seriously,” he said. “No. 1, obviously, is my wife has to say ‘yes.’”

Weaver says the ability to raise large amounts of money will be important, noting that two prominent Democratic candidates, Matt Entenza and Mark Dayton, can utilize significant personal wealth in the contest.

Rep. Laura Brod

Sen. David Hann

Brod and Hann are among the Republican legislators who took up a more prominent leadership role in the just-completed legislative session. Both are seriously considering the gubernatorial contest, but could also be attractive options for down-ballot posts. The latter has stepped down from his leadership position in the state senate in order to test the waters, but hasn’t made his candidacy official.

“I don’t have a time-line,” Hann said of making a decision. “I’d like to come to a conclusion about that relatively quickly.”

Rep. Morrie Lanning

Lanning also confirms that he’s seriously considering the race. He’s in his fourth term at the legislature after serving as the mayor of Moorhead for 22 years.

“I’ve been very encouraged in the support I’ve been getting from around the state,” he says. “But I recognize it’s a big hill to climb.”

Sen. Paul Koering

Koering would face a unique hurdle if he decides to seek the GOP endorsement. As an openly gay legislator, many GOP activists would find his candidacy untenable. Nonetheless Koering said that he will abide by the endorsement if he ultimately decides to run. He also touts his out-state bona fides as a significant plus in a field dominated by metro-area legislators.

In the ether: Former U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman, state Rep. Tom Emmer, state Sen. Michelle Fischbach, Minnesota Chamber of Commerce President David Olson, former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad and businessman Mike Vekich.
How politically tainted will Coleman be after the never-ending U.S. Senate battle with Al Franken? Several polls have indicated that Minnesotans have lost patience with his court battle. While the GOP base may be thankful to Coleman for his persistence in preventing the Democrats from establishing a filibuster proof majority in Washington, D.C., the general public is unlikely to welcome another campaign.

Ramstand faces the opposite problem. The popular former legislator would likely be formidable in a general election but is unlikely to have much cache with the GOP base.

Emmer is a conservative firebrand who loves to stir the pot. He’d at least be a wildcard in any endorsement contest.

Vekich made a bid for governor in 2002, but bowed out when it became apparent that he couldn’t win the GOP nomination. Nonetheless he’s made noises about another bid.

Next Monday: A look at the potential Green and Independence party fields.

Earlier: Who’s in for 2010: Democrats eyeing the governor’s mansion