The Al Franken Senate campaign: How to sit still in the polls — and win

In politics as in the intensive care unit, a flat line is usually a sign that something bad is happening. At the moment, however, I’m looking at the essentially flat — actually slightly declining — arc of Al Franken’s polling performance in the Minnesota US Senate race, and that line describes a very different story: the transformation of Franken from also-ran to frontrunner without ever budging more than a couple of points in poll standings.

How did this happen?

TPT doc airing tonight goes up close and personal with Minnesota Senate candidates

Tonight at 8 on Twin Cities Public Television, reporter Mary Lahammer files “3 Big Moments,” a half-hour profile of US Senate candidates Dean Barkley, Al Franken and Sen. Norm Coleman. The subject of the Barbara Walters-style…

The Fix: ‘The last 14 days have not been kind to Sen. Norm Coleman’

Chris Cillizza has released his latest analysis of which Senate seats are most likley to flip parties in November. Ranking seventh is the post currently held by Sen. Norm Coleman. Despite a rough couple of weeks for the…

Recent polls show Democrats gaining momentum

Minnesota Public Radio and the Humphrey Institute released a pair of polls in recent days that show Democrats picking up ground in both the U. S. Senate race and the presidential campaign. The survey was unique in that it…

Unconventional wisdom: Barkley cuts into Coleman’s support

Minnesota U.S. Senate candidate Dean Barkley shouldn’t be expecting any gift baskets from Norm Coleman between now and election day. That’s because everybody’s conventional wisdom about the contest — i.e., a strong third-party candidate means six more years for Norm — doesn’t seem to be panning out. In fact, it’s becoming clear that the emergence of Barkley as a factor in the race is disproportionately hurting the incumbent.

Poll perplex: Why David Schultz thinks Obama is up 10-12 points in Minnesota

The Schultz Report audiocast is on hold while David Schultz is traveling in Europe and parts of the former Soviet Union on a speaking tour about the US elections. But we managed to catch up with Schultz via e-mail earlier today in Finland (yesterday it was Estonia), where he graciously took time to answer a couple of questions about races back in Minnesota — specifically, what he made of the diametrically opposed Minnesota Senate and presidential polls we wrote about Monday, and why Senate candidate Dean Barkley seems to be taking a disproportionate amount of his support from Norm Coleman.

Clips from the U.S. Senate debate

The redoubtable folks at the Uptake have posted the entire U.S. Senate debate between Norm Coleman, Al Franken and Dean Barkley. You can watch the whole thing in one dreary sitting if you’re a glutton for energy policy discussions and political bickering. But they’ve also made it available in a more palatable question-by-question format. I thought the most interesting part of the evening was the two questions focusing on foreign policy, with Barkley and Franken taking turns teeing off on the pinata presented by the incumbent’s unflagging support of the Iraq war. Watch the clips after the jump:

Why the 20-point spread in KSTP, Strib Minnesota polls? They’re BOTH outliers

What the recent Star Tribune and KSTP polls lack in coherence when placed together, they make up in symmetry: In both races measured, SUSA and PSRA are exactly 19 points apart in their margin spreads (McCain +1/Obama +18, Coleman +10/ Franken +9).

So what gives?

Candidates tangle in first Senate debate

With recent polls offering starkly different assessments of the the U.S. Senate race, the three major party candidates squared off at University Center Rochester last night in the first of five debates. Democrat Al Franken and incumbent Republican Norm Coleman frequently sparred, while Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley took shots at both opponents and portrayed himself as an effective alternative to the broken two-party system.

SurveyUSA poll: Coleman with double-digit lead; Barkley climbing

After months of showing the U.S. Senate race as a statistical dead heat, the latest SurveyUSA poll finds Norm Coleman with a solid 10-point lead. The incumbent draws support from 43 percent of respondents, with Democrat Al Franken…