A parade of speakers in St. Paul, including Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann, a Hispanic businessman, an Arizona educator, and President Bush (speaking from the White House via video link) hailed the prospective nominee John McCain for his courage as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, his 26 years in Congress, even his decision to adopt a child from Bangladesh.

Partisan rhetoric was, for the most part, muted. “John McCain doesn’t speak the language of service. He has lived a life of service,” said Bachmann, presumably in reference to the too-eloquent Democratic nominee Barack Obama. In a clumsier swipe, President Bush averred that if McCain’s North Vietnamese captors could not break his resolve, the “angry left” could not either.

The crowd of 20,000 people responded with rapt attention and the occasional standing ovation, even as the last two speakers of the evening worked hard–Bush loyalists might say too hard–to distinguish the nominee from the man he hopes to succeed.

Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson noted with a hint of admiration that the party’s new standard bearer once dated a stripper. (The TV cameras mercifully spared us Cindy McCain’s reaction to her husband’s taste in female company.) Thompson reminded the Republican faithful that young Congressman McCain bucked Ronald Reagan on the wisdom of sending U.S. troops to the Middle East, an observation that seemed to send a ripple of unease through the crowd. And Thompson described the federal government, run for the last eight years by the already-forgotten incumbent, as “wasteful and too often incompetent.” No one was heard to object.

The solution to the “nightmare” of contemporary Washington, said lapsed Democrat Sen. Joe Lieberman, was John McCain. Among the Arizona Senators’ many accomplishments, Lieberman explained, was his hostility to “corrupt Republican lobbyists”–some of whom were no doubt itching to exit the premises in search of strippers unfamiliar with public service. Lieberman added kind words for the various legislative accomplishments of Bill Clinton, the former Democratic president who warmly endorsed Obama just a week ago—and the confused crowd responded with applause.

To be fair, it has not been an easy convention for the GOP rank and file. On Monday, Republicans who pride themselves on traditional family values had to learn to scratch the phrase “illegitimate child” from their vocabularies, lest they be taken as less than loyal to prospective vice president (and grandmother) Gov. Sarah Palin. Last night, they began to learn another lesson: that McCain’s campaign slogan, “Country First,” also means “We got no brand.”

With approximately 80 percent of precincts reporting, Romney had won 53 percent of a Republican straw ballot.  Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, was in second place with 13 percent of the vote, just 21 votes ahead of Arizona Sen. John McCain.  Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee were in a virtual tie for fourth with 8 percent of the vote, while former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York City trailed badly with just 4 percent of the vote.

The Democratic caucuses were much closer.  With about 90 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton had won 51 percent of delegates to Nevada’s state convention, with Obama close behind with 45 percent.  Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was a distant third with 4 percent of the vote, while Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, was in fifth place, trailing uncommitted delegates, with less than 1 percent of the vote.The wins in Nevada were important to both Clinton and Romney, both of whom are looking for momentum going forward.  Romney needed the win in the delegate-rich Nevada caucuses to offset a near-certain loss in today’s South Carolina primary.  With the win, Romney appears likely to stretch his overall lead in delegates. In a statement, Romney said, “Whether it is reforming health care, making America energy independent or securing the border, the American people have been promised much and are now ready for change.”

Clinton, meanwhile, wins her second consecutive contest, and prevents Obama from building up steam going into next week’s South Carolina primary, where Obama holds a significant lead, according to polling.  In a statement, the Clinton campaign called the victory “a huge victory by overcoming institutional hurdles and one of the worst negative ads in recent memory.”  Clinton had decried Spanish-language ads run by allies of Obama, which called Clinton “shameless.”

The results in Nevada were a crushing blow to the faltering campaign of John Edwards, who has yet to finish higher than second in a primary or caucus.  Edwards had been rising in the polls in the last week, but ultimately faded, and will receive minimal support.  He will go into South Carolina desperately needing a win before the Super Duper Tuesday primaries and caucuses on Feb. 5.

Huckabee received the support of 25 percent of respondents in the poll, five percentage points ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.  Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., received the support of 19 percent of respondents.

Former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., was fourth with 12 percent.  Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney received support from 9 percent of voters, and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, earned 4 percent.

The poll is a reversal of a December poll that showed Giuliani leading his rivals, with Huckabee in second.

The poll was conducted Jan. 4-6, and covered 423 voters.  The margin of error was

Here’s a sampling of what they had to say:“The Obama Phenomenon is Real”

Obama’s eight-point win in Iowa had liberal bloggers suggesting that Obama is in the driver’s seat for the Democratic nomination.  David Roberts, blogging at Grist, said that Obama’s victory cemented him as the front-runner.

Obama was always a gamble. Despite his missteps, there was always that faint hint of transcendence. The possibility of greatness, but also the possibility of horrible, cynicism-enforcing failure. The risk of a broken heart.

After tonight, though, the Obama phenomenon is real. He really did attract tons of new young voters. He really did sway tons of Independents and Republicans. It really does feel like a movement. A black candidate won big in a 95% white state. Something genuinely new seems to be happening.

Matthew Yglesias agreed.  “I think the manner of Barack Obama’s win is pretty impressive,” Yglesias said.  “I can’t be the only one who was a bit inclined toward a cynical roll of the eyes at the idea of winning on the back of unprecedented turnout, mobilizing new voters, brining [sic] in young people, etc. That sounds like the kind of thing that people say they’re going to do but never deliver on. But he did deliver. That’s impressive.”

Chris Bowers, writing at OpenLeft, also praised Obama’s campaign.  “Tonight, Obama won because he did something many campaigns have claimed they would do in the past, but never until now had never actually accomplished: he turned out young voters and new voters in record-smashing numbers,” he said.  “This has long been the holy grail of progressive politics, and until now no one had been able to pull it off. Well, Obama pulled it off. That is a remarkable and historic accomplishment. That is why he won.”

American Prospect blogger Ezra Klein, who has been an Obama skeptic, was nevertheless wowed by Obama’s victory speech:

Obama’s finest speeches do not excite. They do not inform. They don’t even really inspire. They elevate. They enmesh you in a grander moment, as if history has stopped flowing passively by, and, just for an instant, contracted around you, made you aware of its presence, and your role in it. He is not the Word made flesh, but the triumph of word over flesh, over color, over despair. The other great leaders I’ve heard guide us towards a better politics, but Obama is, at his best, able to call us back to our highest selves, to the place where America exists as a glittering ideal, and where we, its honored inhabitants, seem capable of achieving it, and thus of sharing in its meaning and transcendence.

Ken Ashford of The Seventh Sense posted a video of Obama’s speech, saying simply, “I put it up here not because it’s topical and of historical significance, but because it really is a good speech.  It reminds me of why I was drawn to the guy in the first place.”

Conservative blogger Andrew Sullivan said of the speech, “Simply put: he sounded like a president. The theme was not just change; it was a new unity. And as a black man, he helps heal the past as well as forge the future. This really was history tonight. To win so many white voices, and bring together so many minorities, and use the unifying language that leaves the toxins of race and partisanship behind: This was the moment America stopped being afraid. This was the America we have missed and have found again.”

Charlene Smith, writing for South Africa’s Thought Leader blog, praised Iowans for backing Obama.  “Damn, I love Americans,” she said.  “Just when you’ve written them off as hopeless, as a nation in decline, they turn around and do something extraordinary, which tells you why the United States of America is still the greatest nation on earth.”

And Jamia Wilson, writing at GirlHeadquarters, said that Obama had earned her support.  “Mr.Obama has the potential to change the way politics are done in this country. I am hopeful that Obama will stay true to his commitment to ‘cleaning up’ Washington, moving away from dirty politics and more toward honest, spirited, and principled social justice. Honestly, Hillary [Clinton] hasn’t proven to me that she is above the fray of ‘business as usual.’”

Huckabee: “One of the Great Political Stories”

In contrast to Obama, Huckabee’s victory drew very mixed reactions from conservative bloggers.  Jeff Kouba at Truth v. The Machine summed both sides up well.

Wow. One of the great political stories in recent memory, for a guy like that to come from absolutely nowhere, overtaking national figures like McCain and Rudy, and flying past Romney who was poured tons of money and time into Iowa.

Now, will Huckabee be able to run nationally? My guess is no. In 1988, Pat Robertson finished a strong second in Iowa, but did poorly in New Hampshire and wasn’t really competitive after that. The evangelical support among Republicans in Iowa is not exactly the national Republican average. In addition, Iowa doesn’t always pick the eventual nominee, in both parties, so this race is hardly over. It’s just beginning.

I’d rather be governed by Huckabee than Robertson any day of the week, but I do have concerns about Huckabee.

Stephen Green of Vodkapundit made those concerns clear as he blasted the “corn-sucking idiots” who supported Huckabee.  “I’ll put this in language even your tiny little Iowa brains can understand: What the f*** [sic] is wrong with you people?” he said.  “The news coming out of Des Moines (literally, French for ‘tell me about the rabbits, George’) tonight is distressing in the extreme. 32 years ago, your Democratic brethren took one look at Jimmy Carter — the worst 20th Century President bar Nixon, and the worst ex-President ever — and declared, “That’s our man!”

But Dave at NixGuy.com blasted back at Green, saying, “The condescension fairly drips here and it’s not only in the post, but check the comments as well.  Somehow I don’t think it’s going to be very persuasive among the hillbilly class.  There is a case to be made against Huckabee, but denigrating his faith, his profession, his region is not the way to do it.”

Rich Lowry at The Corner said that Huckabee has a shot at the nomination: “In the end, the devastating Huckabee line was the one about voting for the candidate who seems like someone you work with rather than someone who laid you off. Both he and Obama rejected their party’s establishments and old-style politics….Huckabee rejected (at least notionally) Rovian zero-sum politics and the Washington GOP establishment. My friend thinks Huckabee has staying power and is going to be strong in South Carolina and Florida. Evangelicals are now fully vested in him, so he has a strong base going forward.”

Other Dems: Hillary Clinton Stumbles, John Edwards Rumbles, Mike Gravel Grumbles

While Obama’s win was the big story, the third-place finish of Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., was almost as big a story.  Even before the results were in, Swopa at FireDogLake criticized Clinton for not being bold enough:

For most politicians, throwing out some passionate true-believer rhetoric to reassure the base would be child’s play. But Clinton seems determined to live up to her overcautious stereotype, and you can see “microtargeting”-obsessed pollster/campaign guru Mark Penn checking off the notes she’s supposed to hit (e.g., strong with women, people who liked Bill Clinton, and those who value experience) in her messaging.

Marc Armbinder laid out a possible Clinton comeback plan, including a need to “find some way to go negative against Obama. Some Clinton advisers and aides say that the campaign have a storehouse of opposition research — old and new — that they’ll use against Obama. In Iowa, being directly associated with negative attacks is seen as uncouth and un-Midwestern; in New Hampshire, rude remarks as as welcome as questions and answers.”

Steve Benen of The Carpetbagger Report said that Clinton was still alive for the nomination, but: “Clinton isn’t going anywhere; she has the resources to keep the fight going over the long haul, and has solid support in Feb. 5 states. But now, she’s the underdog, and has no obvious avenues to retaking the lead.”

Former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., drew praise for a feisty concession speech that sounded more like a victory speech.  Josh Silverstein at Joshing Politics said simply, “What an amazing speaker, and what a great President he would be for our country.”

But Ed Brayton at Dispatches from the Culture Wars said that it was still an uphill climb for Edwards.  “Edwards needs a strong showing in New Hampshire. I don’t think he necessarily needs to win it, but he can’t take a big step back like only getting 10% while Hillary and Obama finished in the 40% range.”

Former Sen. Mike Gravel, D-Alaska, angrily reacted to reports that he was dropping out of the race after finishing with no delegates in Iowa.  J. Skyler McKinley, Gravel’s multimedia coordinator, said: “MSNBC pundit Keith Olbermann has incorrectly declared that Sen. Gravel has dropped out of the race following the January third caucus in Iowa. This is not true, and Sen. Gravel is still an active member in this race. We are requesting that MSNBC and Keith Olbermann retract their statement, and issue an apology to the campaign for promoting blatantly false misinformation.”  Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo snarked, “And you thought the comedy writers were on strike …”

Finally, Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., and Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del. earned plaudits on the way out of the race.  Prof. Marcus at And Yes, I DO Take It Personally praised Dodd, saying, “i was hoping for a better showing for chris dodd last night than he got, but i’m also not surprised… not only does defending the constitution, the rule of law, and calling for accountability barely register on the national media and political radar screen, damn few voters have really tuned in to what’s happening to our country.” [Capitalization as in original piece]

And Tara Rowe of The Political Game said of Biden: “Whoever gets the Democratic nomination sure as hell better pick up Senator Biden as an advisor. Secretary of State? Yes, that too. Biden had the experience, the foreign policy experience. Something none of the candidates have is foreign policy experience and don’t believe Hillary when she tells you that she does.”

Other GOP Candidates: Mitt Romney Works to Spin Defeat, Giuliani Works in 9/11

The big loser on the Republican side Thursday night was former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who finished a distant third to Huckabee. D.J. Drummond at Stolen Thunder blasted Romney as a flip-flopper.  “Romney has been trying hard lately to sell himself as a new version of Reagan, but Massachusets [sic] is not California, and Romney’s no Reagan Republican. For one thing, Romney changed his mind – as he has a right to do – on a number of issues, but unlike Reagan, who made the changes a number of years before he ran for President, Romney’s switches are recent enough to justify the `flipper’ tag pinned on Kerry.”

Huckabee backer Kathryn Jean Lopez at The Corner griped, “I wonder what this means about Romney’s get-out-the-vote organization. Wasn’t it supposed to be all that?”

Romney supporter Hugh Hewitt held out hope for a Romney resurgence.  “Shades of 1976 –the long march begins,” Hewitt said, referring to Ronald Reagan’s ultimately futile challenge to then-President Gerald Ford.  Baseball Crank mused, “Does anyone have the heart to tell Hugh that the winners in Iowa in 1976 were Carter and Ford, the eventual nominees?”

Bloggers immediately mocked former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani for his reaction to a distant sixth-place finish in Iowa.  “None of this worries me – Sept. 11, there were times I was worried,” Giuliani said, referring to the terrorist attacks on New York City, as he often does.  Melissa McEwan of Shakesville said, “Satire is officially dead.”  James Joyner of Outside the Beltway added, “Please, it’s simply unseemly to keep invoking the 9/11 attacks for even the most trivial matters.”  And Steven Taylor at Poliblogger said, “Giuliani is starting to sound like a senile old war veterans who can only talk about the day he had to jump out of a flaming bomber while Japanese Zeros tried to shoot him from the sky. Or, perhaps, one’s Grandpa who had to walk uphill to school in the snow.”

Finally, Paul Mirengoff at Power Line said he though he knew the biggest loser on Thursday.

But the deeper answer, I think, lies in the perception that Republicans haven’t governed very well during the past seven years. If the Republican Congress had performed better in general and if President Bush had handled the war in Iraq better (or arguably if he hadn’t launched it), one can easily imagine that George Allen (or perhaps Bill Frist) would be the frontrunner for the nomination right now. The perceived failures of Congress and of the president knocked both of these Senators out of the box, and Bush’s lack of popularity has Republicans flirting with non-traditional Republican options.

There’s irony here because I would argue that the flaws of the Republican Congress and of the Bush presidency don’t stem from adherence to conservative principles. But life is unfair. I’ve long suspected that the Republican party (which is synonymous in large segments of “the public mind” with “conservative”) isn’t perceived as having performed well enough to elect a mainstream conservative president this year. It may turn out that it isn’t viewed as having performed well enough even to nominate a mainstream conservative.

Thompson initially appeared to be a frontrunner for the GOP endorsement, but has been criticized for lackluster fundraising and a somnolent presence on the campaign trail.The Politico report quoted a Thompson aide as saying, “Without a solid third-place finish [in Iowa], there’s no point in going on.”  Thompson is currently polling fourth in Iowa and fifth nationally, according to Pollster.com.

Thompson entered the race as the GOP searched for a candidate acceptable to all major constituencies within the party.  His departure could shake up the race, as his supporters choose between GOP frontrunners former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.  Thompson has been a favorite of anti-abortion forces, including the Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life and National Right to Life.

Clinton widened her lead over the four major Republican candidates she was matched up against.  Her widest lead was over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who she led 54 percent to 38 percent.  The tightest matchup was with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who Clinton led 49 percent to 44 percent.  Clinton also led Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson. 

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., was tied nationally with Giuliani, but led the other Republican candidates.  His largest lead also was over Romney, who he led 52 percent to 45 percent.

The poll did not test matchups with former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., or former Republican Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas.  The poll of registered voters was conducted November 11-14, and has a margin of error of

A muddled one for the Republicans, and an interesting one for the Democrats.

The Republican field has played Musical Frontrunners for months now — first with John McCain taking the lead and falling to the second tier after two disappointing quarters of fundraising and a staff exodus, then Mitt Romney for a while, then Rudy Giuliani.  The less-and-less dark horse has been former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who has impressed in debates but has not shown much in the way of fundraising ability.

So is there an opening for Thompson?  Washington Post blogger Chris Cillizza says there’s some question as to whether it’s too late for Thompson’s grand entry into the field. 

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, major labor unions have been getting into the endorsement game.  Last week the United Transportation Union endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton, while the United Steelworkers and United Mine Workers backed former Sen. John Edwards on Monday.  The International Association of Firefighters, a key source of support for John Kerry in 2004, has backed Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, an interesting move for the union but a big win for Dodd (Oh, the IAFF hates Rudy Giuliani, too.

Noticeably absent from the list of labor-endorsed candidates is Sen. Barack Obama, whose rock-star fundraising ability and message of hope and change may not require the support of traditional Democratic base groups — if his campaign can successfully organize for a national primary on February 5th.

Efforts to contact the major campaigns for more information on their Tsunami Tuesday efforts in Minnesota have been unsuccessful to date — but watch for more information soon (I hope).

Giuliani: F.  He sounded good at times, but if I was a pro-life Republican, I’d be pretty disgusted by him right now.  His abortion policy is not pro-choice–it’s completely incoherent.  And if anything, he managed to muddy the waters more.

McCain: C-minus.  Through much of the debate he seemed lost.  He sounds old, and he sounds worn out.

Romney: B.  Generally sounded and looked the most superficially presidential.

Brownback: C-plus.  Certainly didn’t inspire enough confidence to vault to the upper tier.

Tancredo: B.  Oh, he sounded crazy, but he’s really just running for the elimination of Mexicans, and he did a good job of pounding that theme.

Hunter: B.  Looks oddly like a young Chris Dodd; I think his pounding on protectionism could be a good tactic.  But he also still has no chance.

Gilmore: My notes say Jim Gilmore participated in this debate.  I can neither confirm nor deny that, as I have no recollection of his participation.

Huckabee: B-plus.  Probably the most impressive of the second tier candidates.

Tommy Thompson: F.  I honestly still don’t know what Thompson thinks he’s doing, unless he’s hoping to be confused with Fred Thompson by voters.

Paul: B.  Had some good moments, and should lock up 100% of American libertarians.  Unfortunately, that means he has 1% of the vote locked up solidly, and the other 99% of the vote pretty freaked out by him.

Chris Matthews: B-minus.  Questions were tough, but actual questions.  Didn’t have the “random baseless assertion” section that Brian Williams decided to go with last week.  Still Chris Matthews, so still periodically so annoying as to make you want to jump off a cliff, but for Chris Matthews, pretty good.

Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich: A.  Not showing up won’t hurt them.  Indeed, not showing up may be their best strategy for some time.

George W. Bush: F.  Look, the GOP field can’t get too down on the Commander Guy because hey, he’s the Commander Guy.  John Hinderaker would plotz.  But they were as hard on him as they could be.  Clearly, the Republicans know that this is a bad period for them.

And finally, the last word goes to Fred Thompson, who tells Minnesota Monitor, “By God, if you call me Harry once more, you’ll be busting counterfeiters in Alaska!”

See you next time!

Brownback: No!

Mike Huckabee, what mistakes has the Bush administration made that you won’t repeat?

Huckabee: Well, I won’t let jobs move overseas–I’ll tell you that!

Tom Tancredo, yes or no, will you work to protect women’s rights?

Tancredo: I will work to protect women’s rights, unless those rights include abortion.

Tommy Thompson, do you know how many Americans have been killed and injured?

Tommy Thompson: Not exactly.  But I’m at least in the ballpark.

Fred Thompson, do you have a followup?

Fred Thompson (from “Days of Thunder”): You ever heard of a “Japanese Inspection?” Japanese Inpsection, you see, when the Japs take in a load of lettuce they’re not sure they wanna let in the country, why they’ll just let it sit there on the dock ’til they get good and ready to look at, But then of course, it’s all gone rotten… ain’t nothing left to inspect. You see, lettuce is a perishable item… like you two monkeys. You trade paint one more time, you so much as touch, I’m gonna Black Flag the two of you, and tear apart your racecars for three-hundred laps. Then, if you pass inspection and you put your cars back together, I might let you back into the race. Now, just to show there’s no hard feelings we’re all gonna go to dinner together.

So, everyone, should we have a national ID card?

Romney: Why not?

Brownback: Actually, no, not really.  Secure the border.  We have the Social Security number.  Isn’t that enough?

Paul: Absolutely opposed.  This is the opposite of what a free society is about.  The government’s job is to protect the privacy of people?

Tancredo: We don’t need an ID card, we need a verifiable tax ID number.

Matthews: Would you pardon Scooter Libby?

Romney: Not until the judicial process is complete, but boy, was it bad for Pat Fitzgerald to prosecute him.  And national IDs for aliens only!

Brownback: Hey, Bush can do whatever he wants to do.  No law was violated!  I mean, he was only convicted of perjury!

Gilmore: ID cards for brown people only.  Pardon Libby only if you can make the case for impeachment.

Tom Tancredo: Pardon him, and pardon those border guards who shot someone in cold blood.

Paul: Guess what?  Scooter was guilty, guilty, guilty, and so was the rest of the Bush administration.  And you can suck it.

Teri Schiavo–family decide, or Congress?

Romney: Why do you ask such terrible questions.

Brownback: I believe the family should decide, and by “family” I mean “not her husband.”

McCain: Okay, not really.

Giuliani: Can you tell me why we have courts again?

Matthews: Good for America to have Bill Clinton back in the White House?

Romney: No, he’s icky.

Brownback: It would be bad because Hillary is a Democrat, not because she’s a Clinton.

Everyone else: Uh, have we mentioned that we’re Republicans?  And we’re running against Hillary Clinton?  Yeah, we’re not big Clinton fans.

Every president was elected to correct the problems of his predecessor.  How do you fix the mess Bush created?

Romney: I believe George W. Bush is teh aw3sum.  And where I disagree with him, it’s only because he hasn’t gone far enough.

McCain: I wouldn’t have mismanaged the war.  I would have managed it well!  By doing…uh…different things.  Oh, and actually I came up with the surge.  So…nothing.

Gilmore: We need more government intervention in people’s private lives.

Huckabee: States’ rights yes!

Hunter: We need to rebuild our industrial base, and I believe in massive protectionism.

Brownback: Partition Iraq.

Tancredo: No Child Left Behind and the Prescription Drug Bill.  (Bet you thought I’d say immigration, didn’t ya?)

Tommy Thompson: I’d boldly not be elected President.

Giuliani: 9/11.  9/11.  9/11.  9/11.  9/11.  9/11.  9/11.  And in conclusion, 9/11.

Paul: Robert Taft was a great man.

Hunter: Brown people are coming into America to eat our brains!

John McCain, do you believe in evolution?

McCain: (After a long pause)  Yes.

(There were three hands raised saying they don’t.  I believe Brownback was one.)

Mitt Romney, do you like families?

Romney: Yes.

Rudy Giuliani, do you know the difference between Sunnis and Shi’a?

Giuliani: Yes, I do.  (And he actually does.)

Jim Gilmore, why do the other candidates suck?

Gilmore: Well, they just do.

Romney: Oh, but I do!  I just don’t highlight it anymore because it’s not politically expedient.

VandeHei: John McCain, just admit you’ve flip-flopped on the Bush tax cuts.

McCain: It’s spending that’s the problem.  It wasn’t a problem in 2001, by cracky.  Flip-flopping?  Impossible?

Matthews: Tax cuts, what do you like?

Romney: Zero taxes on capital gains for “middle class”

Brownback: I have some crazy minimum tax policy.

Gilmore: I don’t have any, so I’ll mention a car tax that I cut when I was Governor of Virginia.  Oh–wait–I just remembered the AMT!

Huckabee: Eliminate the IRS!  Restructure the system!  A flat tax that is a fair tax!

Hunter: Eliminate manufacturing taxes. 

Tommy Thompson: I’m excited to answer this, because I vetoed a whole buncha stuff in Wisconsin!  Oh, and in answer to your question, AMT.

McCain: Line item veto.  AMT.  Also, tax credit for health insurance.

Paul: Eliminate the entire income tax, the inflation tax, and any other tax.  Shutter the government.  Who needs a government, anyhow?  Also, bring back the gold standard

Giuliani: Death tax!  Death tax!  That could affect up to three American billionaires in 2011!

Hunter: Repeal the sixteenth amendment.  Cut funding to entitlement programs.

VandeHei: You’ve said you’ll appoint a Democrat if elected.  Anyone other than Joe Lieberman?

McCain: Nobody specific other than Lieberman, but I’ll go find random people you’ve never heard of, and for all you know they might be Democrats.  Also, Joe Lieberman.

McCain: A shot at Giuliani?  No!  That was a shot at…uh…”special interests.”  And we lost in 2006 because we spent too much money.  And your crazy light system confuses and befuddles me.

How do we solve the problem?

McCain: Line item veto, pork barrel, yada yada yada.

Mike Huckabee, what’s the grade on the Bush administration’s conduct in Iraq?

Huckabee: I don’t want to give him an F, so I’ll tapdance.

Mitt Romney, pro-life?

Romney: Yeah, I want to make sure that people can occupy abortion clinics and force women to read misleading information about abortion.

Rudy, can you possibly square the circle on abortion?

Giuliani: I hate abortion, but think a woman has a right to choose, which I want to limit, but I don’t really want to limit it, but I do, but I don’t.

Tommy Thompson, is racism a problem?  How does the President solve it?

Thompson: I won’t answer the first half of the question, because the answer is obviously yes, and that doesn’t help me in the South.

Tom Tancredo, if not you for President, who?

Tancredo: We’re all nice guys, but I’m the only one worth voting for.  Have I mentioned that I hate brown people?  I do.  I hate them a lot. 

McCain: I actually don’t hate brown people that much.  They’re okay with me.

Duncan Hunter, have you seen An Inconvenient Truth?

Hunter: No, but you know, Gore’s not totally crazy, and maybe we could actually try to get energy independent, for security if for no other reason.

Ron Paul, have you ever made a sane decision?

Paul: I’m a doctor.  Have I mentioned that?  Yes, I’m a doctor.  So I can make decisions.  By the way, no war in Iraq.

Jim Gilmore, a question.

Jim Gilmore: I’ve addressed things about that question.  9/11.

Matthews: Nancy Reagan is in favor of embryonic stem-cell research.

Romney: I’m going to say I’m in favor of it, but I’m not really in favor of it, because I’m actually opposed for embryonic stem-cell research, I’m for altered nuclear transfer.

Brownback: Adult stem cells, si, embryos, no!

Tommy Thompson: Yes?  No?  What are these words you speak of?

McCain: You know, if embryos aren’t going to be used, then what the heck are we arguing about?  Yes.

Paul: We should eliminate the government.

Giuliani: Sure, because I’m pro-choice.  Except when I’m pro-life.  And I like Norm Coleman’s bill. 

Everyone else: Nancy Reagan can eat it.

Hunter: Build a big fence on the Mexican border!  That will end all crime!

Jim Gilmore, is Karl Rove your friend?

Gilmore: Hey, it’s Bush that sucks, not Rove.  Wait–that’s not what I meant.  And Rove is not important, and I resent the implication that the fact that I like Karl Rove and want to bear his children has become an issue.

Tancredo: Karl Rove is too fond of brown people.

Rudy, is it good that there are a bunch of crazy Christians in your party?

Giuliani: Yeah, sure, let me ignore that question and say that I can win in New York City, and if I can make it there, I’ll make it anywhere.

Matthews: Tommy Thompson, I don’t care enough to ask a question.

Tommy Thompson: I don’t care enough to formulate a coherent answer.

Sam Brownback, there are a bunch of criminals in your party?

Brownback: There are Democrat members who are bad too.  Okay, there’s just one.  But bad people should go to jail.  And how do we build a stronger culture?  Have you ever read a book called The Handmaid’s Tale?

Various answers, including “Awesome,” “Totally awesome,” “More awesome than awesome,” and “Pretty f—ing awesome.”

Tommy Thompson, gay rights, pro or con?

Thompson: Con.

Mitt Romney’s Mormonism–horrible?

Everyone: No!  Of course not!

Romney: Everyone’s wonderful as long as they belong to a church.

Brownback: Yeah!  Atheists suck, everyone else is awesome!  Mostly the Christians!

Everyone but Giuliani: Yep!

Guliani: Pass.

Mitt Romney, do you want to just admit you’re a flip-flopper?

Mitt Romney: Yes, I’m a flip-flopper, and right now I’m pro-life, and I will stay pro-life so long as it is politically expedient for me to do so.

Sam Brownback, could you support a pro-choice candidate?

Brownback: Yeah, I guess so.  But not really.

Rudy, you were in favor of killing funds for bad art, but you’re for taxpayer funds for abortion.

Giuliani: No, I’m not.

Matthews: Yes you are.

Giuliani: No, I’m not.

Matthews: Yes you are.

Giuliani:  All right, I guess I am.  But I am not.

McCain, you want to ramble incoherently for a while?

McCain:  We can’t bust heads like we used to, but we have our ways. One trick is to tell ‘em stories that don’t go anywhere — like the time I caught the ferry over to Shelbyville. I needed a new heel for my shoe, so, I decided to go to Morganville, which is what they called Shelbyville in those days. So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the ferry cost a nickel, and in those days, nickels had pictures of bumblebees on ‘em. ‘Give me five bees for a quarter,’ you’d say.

Now where were we? Oh yeah — the important thing was that I had an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time. They didn’t have white onions because of the war. The only thing you could get was those big yellow ones…

Giuliani: Well, I wouldn’t say “hated.”

Mitt Romney, what do you dislike most about America?

Romney: Absolutely nothing!  We live in a perfect society, and none can gaze upon us without being blinded!

Mike Huckabee, what about global warming?

Huckabee: I’m not saying it’s man-made, but it’s man-made.  We have to be good stewards of the Earth.

Tom Tancredo, how do we solve the problem of the shortage of organs for transplant?

Tancredo: No.  And no jokes about harvesting them from immigrants.  And I hate cloning.

Duncan Hunter, I have a question?

Hunter: I’m going to ignore you and talk about Iran.

Ron Paul, eliminate the government?

Paul: Yes.

7:21–Oh, goody, questions from the people.

John McCain, you totally disagree with Tom Tancredo on immigration.  So would you make him your head of INS?

McCain: No, and let me talk about bin Laden.

Matthews: Should we make it legal for Arnold to run for president?

Several: no. 

Huckabee: After I win, I’ll be happy to make the change.

McCain: If he endorses me, yes.

McCain: Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran.  Which is a cultured society. That needs to be bombed.

Matthews: So what makes you kill ‘em?  Nukes?  Chemical weapons? Not Without My Daughter?

McCain: Well, I mean, if they got nukes, we’d have to nuke ‘em to keep ‘em from nuking us.  Hopefully, we won’t have to destroy the country to save it.

Matthews: Tom Tancredo, Israel wants to bomb Iran.  Are you in or out?

Tancredo: In!

Matthews: Rudy?

Giuliani: Well…that’s a bit crazy.  But remember, the Iranians were so scared of Reagan they just gave up the hostages immediately!  Have I mentioned that I’m like Reagan?

Matthews: Jim Gilmore, should we go after bin Laden?

Gilmore: Yeah, but let me talk about a lot of other tangentially related stuff.

Matthews: Multiple choice Mitt?

Romney: It’s very important we get bin Laden.  But it isn’t really all that important.

Giuliani: Security!  Safety!  Optimism!  And Lebensraum!  We have great health care that is flawed and needs to be fixed.  Also, don’t retreat in the face of terrorism!

Matthews: So, John McCain, how do we win in Iraq?

McCain: New general, new strategy, strategy can succeed.  Says if we can bring about security, we can win in Iraq.  (But can’t we walk freely in the streets?)  And surrender bad!  Victory good!  Oh, sure, the war’s been mismanaged.  But new strategy, and new general.  Win.

Tommy Thompson: Uh, referendum?  Also, I look like I’ve taken a 2×4 to my head.

Hunter: Says some stuff.  I give him points for not mentioning that his son is in Iraq right now.

VandeHei: So Mitt Romney, people want out of Iraq.  Why can’t we leave?

Romney: Strength! Why, if you let the people have a voice, then they make decisions!  We need to support strength and stability.  And strength.

Matthews: Sam Brownback, Muslims hate us.  For God’s sake, why can’t any of you just admit this is a debacle?

Brownback: Hey, some Muslims like us!  And those that don’t, we’ll marginalize until they hate us more.

Matthews: Can we win the war without getting Muslims to like us?

Brownback: No, not really.  But that doesn’t mean we can’t attack some brown people.

VandeHei: Mike Huckabee, would you have fired Rummy?

Huckabee: Yes.  That’s the President’s call, and he really screwed up.  He should’ve listened to the soldiers.  (But I thought Bush was the Commander Guy?)  Iraq’s a disaster, we never should have invaded, but it will be worse if we leave.

Matthews: Shakeup in the Bush administration: good or bad?

Gilmore: Admit it, until the chyron popped up, you didn’t have a clue in the world who I was.

It’s almost embarassing.  At least in 2000, they had Liddy for a fig leaf.

Olbermann noted how there was an air of regalness to the procession.  Well, yes–but America was founded on a rejection of the monarchy. 

And Pat Buchanan is bemoaning the influence of the neocons on the GOP.  And he’s backing Ron Paul.

Tonight should be interesting.

While we wait for something to actually happen, if you want more info, here’s our preview for tonight.  And stay tuned between 7 and 8:30 for our liveblog.

VandeHei: Ron Paul, you actually voted against the war.  Why are these guys idiots?

Paul: Yeah, and 70% of Americans hate it.  I’m in favor of isolationism.  That’s pro-America–pulling out of the world.

Republican candidates for the presidency will gather Thursday night at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, Calif., for their first nationally televised debate.  The debate, which will be carried on MSNBC and liveblogged here at Minnesota Monitor starting at 7 p.m., will feature 10 Republicans vying to succeed George W. Bush. Here’s a quick look at the Republican candidates and the state of their campaigns today:

First, conspicuous by his absence will be Fred Thompson, a former U.S. senator from Tennessee.  Thompson has not yet announced his candidacy and was not invited to the debate.  Despite that, Thompson is currently second in the Rasmussen Reports poll, with 14 percent support.  Newt Gingrich, a former U.S. representative from Georgia, will not be attending the debate for the same reason. Gingrich polls fifth with 8 percent support.

The current front-runner for the GOP nomination is Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City. Giuliani has 30 percent support in the Rasmussen poll but has been under attack from social conservatives critical of statements he has made in support of government-funded abortion for the poor, as well as his generally liberal views on gay rights. Giuliani has strong support in national polls, though, and has thus far raised more than $16 million dollars for his campaign.

Another top-tier GOP candidate is Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.   McCain, tied with Fred Thompson for second at 14 percent in the Rasmussen poll, has struggled to get his campaign on track and has had a string of recent gaffes – from his claim that westerners could stroll the streets of Baghdad unmolested to his recent singing of “Bomb Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran” at a campaign event.  McCain has raised the third-most funds of GOP contenders, however, with $13 million thus far.

The top fund-raiser thus far has been Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts. Romney raised more than $23 million so far.  He’s still polling fourth among GOP candidates, though, with 11 percent of the vote.  His Mormon faith is believed to be a potential liability for his need to secure the GOP’s evangelical base, as is his perceived “flip-flopping” on issues.

None of the other Republicans running for president are polling in double digits, and of the remaining group, only two have raised more than a million dollars.  Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., is running as a staunch conservative with a deep commitment to the GOP’s social base.  He has been struggling to overcome doubts about his viability in a general election.  Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., is running an issue-oriented campaign supporting strong curbs on immigration and a harsh crackdown on illegal immigrants.

Other GOP candidates attending tonight’s debate will be Jim Gilmore, a former Republication National Committee chairman from Virginia, whose campaign has yet to catch fire; Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who is perhaps best known for losing more than 100 pounds; Staunch conservative bomb-thrower Rep. Duncan Hunter of California, who is to the GOP field what Dennis Kucinich is to the Democratic one; Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, the darling of the libertarians, who should be interesting if for no other reason that he’ll be the lone opponent of the Iraq war on stage; and Tommy Thompson, a former governor of Wisconsin who has had to weather a controversy over insensitive and possibly anti-Semitic comments he made at a campaign event.

Minnesota Monitor’s liveblog of tonight’s event will run from the 7 p.m. start through the duration of the debate, plus post-debate coverage on how top-tier candidates performed.  Be sure to check back this evening for further coverage.