Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s announcement earlier this month that he will not seek a third term has unleashed a political gold rush among Republican politicians in the state. Minnesota’s current political landscape includes an eye-popping 18 declared and possible gubernatorial contenders. With the list of Democratic contenders also reaching well into double digits, it promises to be one of the most wide-open gubernatorial campaigns in decades.

And if the slate of Democratic candidates was difficult to assess, the outlook for the GOP contenders is even more difficult to size up. With Pawlenty dominating the state party over the last six years, and the Republicans out of leadership in both legislative bodies since 2006, there are few household names in the bunch. In addition, the candidate that many political observers thought to be the odds-on favorite — businessman Brian Sullivan, who narrowly lost the GOP nomination to Pawlenty in 2002 — has announced that he’ll be sitting this contest out.

The Republicans’ endorsing convention is not until at least May of next year and by then the list of challengers will have undoubtedly been whittled down significantly. With Democrats holding all the down-ballot statewide posts, some of these contenders will likely turn their attention to those offices. But here’s a look at the emerging field for 2010.

Definitely in: Former Minnesota State Auditor Pat Anderson, former state Rep. Bill Haas, state Rep. Paul Kohls and House Minority Leader Marty Seifert.

Rep. Marty Seifert

Pat Anderson

Anderson and Seifert probably start out with better name recognition than any of the other contenders in the GOP field. The former is the only gubernatorial candidate to have previously won a statewide contest, but failed in her re-election bid for state auditor in 2006 in a tough year for the GOP. She’s since landed at the Minnesota Free Market Institute.

Anderson sees a change in the GOP base that has its roots in the 2006 Ron Paul presidential campaign, and that will influence the endorsement process. “It is a true libertarian Republican movement, and they’re changing the party,” she said in an interview. “There’s less discussion about social issues and more discussion about the Constitution.”

Seifert is still a relatively fresh face at age 37, but has more than a decade of experience at the state legislature, including two sessions as House minority leader. The Republican from Marshall earned notice for his cool-headed, if often caustic, opposition to the DFL majority.

Rep. Paul Kohls

Kohls is also among a cadre of prominent, young GOP legislators seeking to emerge as a statewide leader of the party. The Republican from Victoria figures Sullivan’s decision to stay on the sideline has made the race even more wide open. But he still believes the field will be winnowed down before next year’s state convention.

“I fully expect that some people will get in and not be able to raise money or generate support and will quickly get out,” he said. “I don’t think people can defer starting to raise money very long because it’s going to take some money just to put an organization together and get started.”

Former Rep. Bill Haas

Haas brings an impressive resume — 10 years in the legislature; two terms as mayor of Champlin — but has been out of the political spotlight for three years. He’ll need to ramp up his name recognition if he hopes to be a factor, but believes his status as something of an outsider could be a positive with voters. Haas said in an interview that he made the decision to run more than a year ago, dependent on whether Pawlenty bowed out.

“I’ve been watching the process and staying informed,” he said of the goings-on at the Capitol. “Minnesota is really sitting at a point now where we need to grow the economy. The backbone of our economy is small business owners and they’re hurting.”

Likely in: State Reps. Laura Brod and Morrie Lanning, state Sens. David Hann, Paul Koering and Geoff Michel, former House Majority Leader Speaker of the House Steve Sviggum and former Pawlenty Chief of Staff Charlie Weaver.

Sen. Steve Sviggum

Of this group Sviggum and Weaver are probably the best-known commodities. The former served as House Majority Leader Speaker of the House when Republicans controlled the house and has since joined the Pawlenty administration as commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry. The Kenyon Republican hasn’t officially entered the gubernatorial fray, but he’s made his interest no secret.

“I’ll do a little exploration, talk to some friends and some family over the next few days or a couple of weeks and see where it leads us,” Sviggum told Minnesota Public Radio earlier this month.

Charlie Weaver

Weaver also brings experience at multiple levels of state government. He spent almost a decade at the Capitol as a legislator, before unsuccessfully running for attorney general. Weaver then went on to serve as commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Public Safety during Jesse Ventura’s administration and as Pawlenty’s chief of staff. Currently he heads the Minnesota Business Partnership. Weaver isn’t quelling speculation that he’ll run.

“I am considering and will spend the summer looking at it very seriously,” he said. “No. 1, obviously, is my wife has to say ‘yes.’”

Weaver says the ability to raise large amounts of money will be important, noting that two prominent Democratic candidates, Matt Entenza and Mark Dayton, can utilize significant personal wealth in the contest.

Rep. Laura Brod

Sen. David Hann

Brod and Hann are among the Republican legislators who took up a more prominent leadership role in the just-completed legislative session. Both are seriously considering the gubernatorial contest, but could also be attractive options for down-ballot posts. The latter has stepped down from his leadership position in the state senate in order to test the waters, but hasn’t made his candidacy official.

“I don’t have a time-line,” Hann said of making a decision. “I’d like to come to a conclusion about that relatively quickly.”

Rep. Morrie Lanning

Lanning also confirms that he’s seriously considering the race. He’s in his fourth term at the legislature after serving as the mayor of Moorhead for 22 years.

“I’ve been very encouraged in the support I’ve been getting from around the state,” he says. “But I recognize it’s a big hill to climb.”

Sen. Paul Koering

Koering would face a unique hurdle if he decides to seek the GOP endorsement. As an openly gay legislator, many GOP activists would find his candidacy untenable. Nonetheless Koering said that he will abide by the endorsement if he ultimately decides to run. He also touts his out-state bona fides as a significant plus in a field dominated by metro-area legislators.

In the ether: Former U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman, state Rep. Tom Emmer, state Sen. Michelle Fischbach, Minnesota Chamber of Commerce President David Olson, former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad and businessman Mike Vekich.
How politically tainted will Coleman be after the never-ending U.S. Senate battle with Al Franken? Several polls have indicated that Minnesotans have lost patience with his court battle. While the GOP base may be thankful to Coleman for his persistence in preventing the Democrats from establishing a filibuster proof majority in Washington, D.C., the general public is unlikely to welcome another campaign.

Ramstand faces the opposite problem. The popular former legislator would likely be formidable in a general election but is unlikely to have much cache with the GOP base.

Emmer is a conservative firebrand who loves to stir the pot. He’d at least be a wildcard in any endorsement contest.

Vekich made a bid for governor in 2002, but bowed out when it became apparent that he couldn’t win the GOP nomination. Nonetheless he’s made noises about another bid.

Next Monday: A look at the potential Green and Independence party fields.

Earlier: Who’s in for 2010: Democrats eyeing the governor’s mansion

paulsenforcongress.com

U.S. Rep. Erik Paulsen’s campaign paid his wife more than $10,000 in the last five months of 2008, according to Federal Election Commission records. (No such revelations about his DFL opponent, a bachelor.)

The payments include seven payroll checks from Aug. 27 to Dec. 11, 2008, that total $9,729, as well as a Nov. 12 reimbursement of $728 on Nov. 12 for travel to Washington, D.C.

Carolyn “Kelly” Paulsen managed the campaign office, Paulsen campaign treasurer Reid LeBeau told Democratic blogger Brian Falldin.

The payments don’t violate the law, Polinaut points out. Attempts at banning the practice have failed in Congress, leaving spousal pay for campaign work legal if sometimes controversial.

Stirring controversy by keeping campaign cash in the family wasn’t a problem for Paulsen’s Third Congressional District Democratic rival: Ashwin Madia is unmarried.

But Paulsen’s campaign tried to make that fact a problem for Madia last fall. Paulsen ally state Sen. Geoff Michel held a Sept. 30 State Capitol press conference to tar Madia as having inadequate “suburban life experience“:

Raising a family in the district. Sending your kids to the public school. Owning a home. Working in the 3rd District. Paying property taxes in the 3rd District. Erik Paulsen has done all these things, and Ashwin Madia has not.

The next day, Michel appeared again before state Capitol microphones (crashing a Madia news conference), this time joined by state Republican Party Chairman Ron Carey, who expanded on the demographic attack:

Erik Paulsen … really fits the 3rd District so well, as one of them. And so people need to understand that there is a sharp contrast between the candidates. …Erik Paulsen is a very good fit from a philosophical standpoint and a lifestyle standpoint … From a demographic standpoint Erik Paulsen fits the district very well.

Scott Beale / Laughing Squid

A bill to allow incurably ill patients to legally purchase marijuana is up for consideration in the Minnesota Senate. The Medical Use of Marijuana bill (SF 97) is nearly identical to a bill that passed the Senate last year and almost passed the House. It enjoys partisan support this year, although last year Gov. Tim Pawlenty indicated he would veto such a bill so long as law enforcement opposed it.

The Medical Use of Marijuana bill would make it legal for patients to procure up to 2.5 ounces of marijuana from a state-regulated nonprofit, only with a physician’s approval and only to those patients who have registered with the state as medical marijuana users. The bill lays down harsh penalties for patients and nonprofits that dispense marijuana to individuals that aren’t qualified by state registration.

Two Republicans are co-authors on this year’s bill. Sens. Geoff Michel of Edina and Debbie Johnson of Ham Lake have signed on to support the bill, as have Sens. Steve Murphy of Red Wing, Linda Higgins of Minneapolis and John Marty of Roseville. A similar bill is expected to be introduced in the House this month and will likely have similar bipartisan support.

Fourteen states allow the medical use of marijuana, from libertarian Alaska and Montana to liberal Vermont and California. If Minnesota passes legislation this year, it would become the second state in the Midwest to do so. Michigan passed a medical marijuana law in 2008.

Public polling in Minnesota shows that legalizing medical marijuana is a popular public policy goal. Last year, a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll showed support from 64 percent of Minnesotans, including 58 percent of Republicans. Minnesotans have favored the legalization of marijuana by more than 60 percent in most public opinion polls over the last 10 years.

Photo: Scott Beale, Laughing Squid

Paulsen sign, Election Night

Minnesota’s U.S. representative-elect for the Third District, Republican Erik Paulsen, ran one of the best five House campaigns in the country, according to the Washington Post blog The Fix. Paulsen “beat back the anti-Republican trend,” writes Chris Cillizza (citing President-elect Barack Obama’s showing and Al Franken’s apparent success), “by focusing on his own accomplishments in the state legislature.”

The Fix tracked the Third District contest closely throughout the campaign season as one of the nation’s most competitive — and expensive — congressional races, with Democrat Ashwin Madia and David Dillon of the Independence Party vying with Paulsen to replace Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, who is retiring. And Paulsen’s margin of victory was wider than the recount-tight result that most polls appeared to predict (48 percent of the vote compared to 41 for Madia and 11 for Dillon).

But in several ways Cillizza’s summary this morning doesn’t exactly square with how home-state observers might recall the race:

- It may almost be timely, but it’s still a bit silly to cite a prospective victory by Democrat Franken over incumbent U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman as part of any anti-Republican factor in the Third District, since Madia outperformed Franken there.

- With Dillon pulling down more than 10 percent, this contest was a better example of how Republicans win three-way races than how Paulsen bucked an anti-Republican trend that wasn’t a game-changer in any of Minnesota’s congressional races. Even Republican U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, despite her best efforts, won by 3 percentage points, in another race with an Independence Party candidate topping 10 percent.

- Far from focusing on it, Paulsen ran away from his record as one of the most conservative members of the state Legislature.

- What the Republican campaign did focus on (but Cillizza didn’t mention) was how Paulsen, a white homeowner and father of four, fit the district’s “demographics” better then Madia, a single renter of South Asian descent. That point, made by Paulsen stand-ins at not one but two ham-handed state Capitol press conference appearances, was underscored by a National Republican Congressional Committee ad that made Madia’s skin darker and drew worldwide rebuke.

Here’s the full item on Paulsen from The Fix, followed by a video from one of the press conferences where Paulsen’s “demographics,” not his accomplishments, were the focus.

At first glance, the retirement of Rep. Jim Ramstad (R) presented an ideal pickup opportunity for national Democrats. The suburban Twin Cities seat gave President George W. Bush a narrow 51 percent victory in 2004 and looked to be the epicenter of anti-war movement in the state. And, when Democrats nominated Iraq war veteran Ashwin Madia, it looked like a tailor-made pickup. Enter state Sen. [sic] Erik Paulsen, one of the best (and only) recruits for House Republicans in 2008. Paulsen was able to beat back the anti-Republican trend in the state (Obama won the state by 10 points and it appears as though Al Franken is going to win the Senate seat) by focusing on his own accomplishments in the state legislature. A rare bit of good news for Republicans nationally.

(Hat tip to Political Animal for spotting The Fix’s error in ID’ing Paulsen as a state senator — he’s a state Rep.)

The Minnesota DFL Party put together this highlight reel of remarks by state Republican Party Chair Ron Carey and state Sen. Geoff Michel speaking on behalf of Paulsen:

State Sen. Geoff Michel and state Republican party chair Ron Carey took the mic after a Madia press conference.

Is the Republican Party of Minnesota unaware of current demographics in the West Metro congressional district it has held for 50 years? U.S. Census data suggests that the suburban-identity politics that Republicans advanced last week writes off a third or more of the 3rd District’s residents.

Republican officials claim the 3rd District’s demographic makeup makes their candidate — state Rep. Erik Paulsen, a married-with-children homeowner — better suited to replace retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad than DFLer Ashwin Madia, a single, childless renter.

Yet an examination of the latest demographics from the U.S. Census — released on Sept. 23, a week before the Republicans launched their demographic attacks — shows that the Republican concept of the suburban norm leaves out a significant minority of the 3rd District’s population.

Here’s what the U.S. Census says about how many people own a home or pay a mortgage in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District:

Total households: 252,410
Renter occupied: 23 percent (56,999 households)
Owner occupied: 77 percent (195,411)

Of owner-occupied housing units, those with a mortgage: 78 percent (151,571)
Of owner-occupied housing units, those without a mortgage: 22 percent (43,840)

Of total households, renters and owners without a mortgage, combined: 40 percent (100,839)

And here’s what the U.S. Census says about how many people in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District are raising children:

Family households: 70.5 percent (177,994)
Nonfamily households: 29.5 percent (74,416)

Married-couple family with own children under 18 years old: 26.8 percent (67,588)

Now married (except separated): 60.1 percent (152,151)
Never married: 30.5 percent (77,318)
Separated/Widowed/Divorced: 9.3 percent (23,745)

After Republicans made their demographics case last week — particularly state party chair Ron Carey’s statement that 3rd District voters should like Paulsen best because he’s “one of them” — reporters pressed questions about a racial or ethnic undercurrent to the argument. The topic is too hot to touch — Madia, the son of immigrants from India, said he didn’t hear it, while Paulsen’s allies denied it — but for what it’s worth, the candidates’ racial backgrounds are shared across the 3rd District’s population to starkly different extents, as reflected in U.S. Census figures:

Total population (one race and more than one race): 664,769
White: 83 percent (553,342)
Asian Indian: 1.3 percent (8,350)

Here’s five minutes of video from a press conference held today by Ashwin Madia, DFL candidate for U.S. Congress in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District. In this clip, Madia addresses the economy; Republican characterizations of his background as less well-suited to the district than that of his opponent, state Rep. Erik Paulsen; ads by outside groups attacking Paulsen that have been called inaccurate, and an incident in which a Madia campaign volunteer removed Paulsen signs from a public right-of-way.

After the news conference, two Republicans in the room — state party chair Ron Carey and state Sen. Geoff Michel — took the mic and, with reporters still present, offered their views on the tenor of the campaign, whether their assertions that Madia makes an inferior demographic match with the 3rd District have a racial or ethnic meaning, and other topics. Here is a six-minute video excerpt from their remarks:

In the video, Carey says:

Erik Paulsen … really fits the 3rd District so well, as one of them. And so people need to understand that there is a sharp contrast between the candidates. I think most people want to vote for somebody who can understand, they walk in their shoes and understands the issues that they face on a daily basis. And that’s Erik Paulsen, that’s very clear. When people look at [unintelligible: "it," "him," or "them"], behind all the rhetoric as to who really can understand and empathize [sic] the challenges that they’re facing. … It’s a very sharp contrast. … Erik Paulsen is a very good fit from a philosophical standpoint and a lifestyle standpoint … From a demographic standpoint Erik Paulsen fits the district very well. [emphasis added]

UPDATED The knives are out in the 3rd Congressional District race: A new Ashwin Madia attack ad answers Republican state Rep. Erik Paulsen’s; a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee mailing reaches with a strip-club charge; and a Paulsen stand-in plays up Madia’s marital and residential status (single, renter).

The Madia ad, titled “Everyone Else,” responds to a Paulsen commercial from late last week that attacked Madia on taxes. “Everyone Else” knocks down Paulsen’s charges with the same spinning graphics Paulsen’s ad used and throws in punches on education cuts, offshore corporations and political appointee pay raises for good measure.

In the first parry of a news conference duel, Paulsen stand-in state Sen. Geoff Michel, R-Edina, attacked Madia as a carpet-bagging, childless, apartment-dwelling un-suburban bachelor. Play the 17-minute MPR audio and read transcript excerpts at the bottom of this post. (Madia will appear at his own news conference this afternoon. See more MnIndy coverage to come: story and video.)

Meanwhile, a pair of glossy Democratic Congression Campaign Commitee mailings earned a failing grade from KSTP’s Tom Hauser, who called their charges of strip-club funds seeping into Paulsen campaign coffers “among the most over the top and outrageous we’ve seen.”

Transcript excerpts from state Sen. Geoff Michel’s Sept. 30 press conference (MPR’s audio player should appear at the end of this post; if not, click here):

MICHEL: … I come before you today as a supporter of Erik Paulsen. … I will admit I thought long and hard about running for this seat … I care about this seat. It’s where I live. It’s where I’m raising four daughters [like Paulsen] …

My sense of the 3rd District and the people that I talk to, my neighbors, the people that I run into at the door as I doorknock for my friends and colleagues — they want the newest member from the 3^rd Congressional District to be someone who is grounded in the suburbs, someone with suburban life experience. And there is a huge contrast in this race. For lack of a better term, Ashwin Madia is a carpetbagger. He does not have this grounding of suburban life experiences, in stark contrast to Erik Paulsen. Now “carpetbagger” — that’s kind of an old — I’m not even sure if it’s a 19th-century term. And I’m not sure how it was first used. …

So what do we look to when people knock on our door, saying, “Hey, I want to be your member of Congress?” … Voters in the 3rd District are looking for more than party. … They want to know: What’s in your background? What have you done? …

As far as our records can tell, Ashwin Madia has never, never even owned a home. I would like my next member of Congress to have owned a home and to know what it’s like to pay a mortgage. … That’s one indicia of a suburban life experience. Raising a family in the district. Sending your kids to the public school. Owning a home. Working in the 3rd District. Paying property taxes in the 3rd District. Erik Paulsen has done all these things, and Ashwin Madia has not. …

Have you paid taxes in the 3rd District? That’s what people will ask you at the door. They’ll ask you: Where do you live? Or where do you work? He worked in Minneapolis, for a law firm. He served in the Marines, and I thank him. I honor him for that service. That is certainly something to be applauded. But it’s not a shortcut to Congress. And the voters in the 3rd District are going to have a lot more questions.

Do you feel what my family feels, trying to save for college? Do you feel what my family feels, sending our kids to public schools? When you talk about No Child Left Behind and the growth of the federal government’s role in education, do you feel that as a father? These are all important, kind of minimum requirements for a member of Congress from the 3rd District. And again, it’s a huge contrast between Erik Paulsen and Ashwin Madia. I think Mr. Madia has great energy and certainly great ambition, but he’s got some major holes in his resume. Erik has done all of these things. He has served the 3rd District. He has led in the 3rd District. He is raising four beautiful daughters in the 3rd District — not as beautiful as mine. …

So that’s our main message today. There are Paulsen campaign staffers here for additional follow up or questions. I’m happy to stand for any questions at this time. …

QUESTION: So if you’re a renter, if you don’t have kids, you’re not qualified to serve in Congress.

MICHEL: I think that’s a little strong. But I’d say this: I’d say you are more qualified to serve in Congress if you’ve done some of those things that I have listed off. Because that will give the voters of the 3rd District something to hang on to, something to hang on to other than party. “Yeah, he’s done a little bit of what I’m doing. He’s felt some of my pain. He’s gone to a parent-teacher conference at school. He’s coached some rambunctious soccer teams on the fields of Eden Prairie.”

Mr. Madia is legally qualified to run for Congress. He has met all the minimum legal qualifications. But I’m telling you what I hear on the streets of places like Edina and Bloomington. People have a much higher bar than just that. People ask me, as a state senator, not just, “Well, have you rented?” People ask me as a state senator, these kinds of questions: Where do you live? What have you done in your life? Where do your kids go to school? I think those are the qualifications that voters of the 3^rd District has [sic], and each of these candidates will have to answer to them.

QUESTION: His campaign has released a statement, Senator, that says the reason he hasn’t owned a home is he lived at his parents’ home while he was going to the U of M, and then he enlisted in the military.   Certainly military experience would come to bear in voting in Congress — [question cut off by Michel's response]

MICHEL: Absolutely … Again, we want to honor Mr. Madia’s service. Boy, you know, I thank God that there are people like him that will raise their hand and serve. But if you’re only 29 years old and you decide that you want to run for Congress, you might feel like there’s some holes in your resume. … If we send someone to Washington D.C. from the 3rd District, let’s send someone who has lived there and felt the issues of the 3rd Congressional District.

QUESTION: Rep. Ramstad, who probably represented the district pretty well, but he didn’t raise a family there. He was a bachelor— [question cut off by Michel’s response]

MICHEL: You’re right. He represented the Wayzata-Plymouth-Minnetonka area in the state senate. He did what — he worked just down the hallway here for over a decade. So Rep. Ramstad and the state Sen. Ramstad did a great job and spent — He was prolific in the number of doors he knocked on, over the years. There wasn’t anybody in Minnetonka who hadn’t personally shaken Jim Ramstad’s hand. It’s a great role model, great example. [complete answer]

QUESTION: Aren’t there a bunch of different kinds of people who live in the 3rd District? It’s a big district. It’s not just people who own homes, and it’s not just people with kids. There’s a whole bunch of different kinds of people. How can you say you have to be this kind of person to represent that district? What if you come from another part of the district, an immigrant community, for instance? Are you not qualified for some reason?

MICHEL: Well, I’m — you’re — that’s your second question about being qualified. Again, this comes to me from my experience of the past six years, from my own campaigns. These are the things that suburban constituents ask me. These are the expectations that they have. No — is he — he’s not unqualified. And I wouldn’t disqualify him. Yes, we’re blessed in the 3rd District. There’s more diversity than ever. There’s demographic diversity, there’s economic, socioeconomic diversity. And yeah, you need to be able to represent every one of those people. But if you are coming to this campaign with a lack of experience — of life experience — you’re going to feel that at the door. …

[Where it's indicated in bold, emphasis is added. Emphasis in italics is the speaker's.]

Not included in the excerpt above is considerable discussion of Madia’s home address. Michel said Madia’s use of his parents’ Plymouth address on the form to file for office constituted one the “holes in his resume.” But in the end Michel conceded that he didn’t know where Madia had lived around the time of the filing, and that in any case it isn’t a legal requirement to live in the district.

MPR audio player