The freshman Republican legislator won the open Third Congressional District seat by a surprisingly comfortable margin last year in one of the most closely watched contests in the country. Paulsen garnered 48 percent of the vote, while Democratic challenger Ashwin Madia drew support from 41 percent of voters. Independence Party candidate David Dillon was also a factor in the race with 11 percent of the vote.

The Cook Partisan Voting Index currently gives neither party an advantage in the district, where Republicans historically had an edge. Democrats have made serious inroads in state legislature contests, picking up 10 House seats during the last three election cycles. Most recently state Reps. Jerry Newton and Paul Rosenthal took over seats that had been help by the GOP. And President Obama won the suburban district by a 52-46 percent margin last year.

But his coattails proved non-existent. In addition to Paulsen’s comfortable victory, Norm Coleman outpolled Al Franken there by a 47-39 spread in the U.S. Senate contest.

The Third Congressional District is one of just two 2010 House races political analysts view as competitive in the state. The other is the Sixth Congressional District, where Rep. Michele Bachmann’s high-voltage rhetoric makes her an irresistible (if elusive) target for Democrats. She’s already attracted two DFL challengers in Elwyn Tinklenberg and Maureen Reed.

David Wasserman, House Editor for the Cook Political Report, figures Bachmann is slightly more vulnerable than Paulsen. But he believes Paulsen is among the top ten GOP House incumbents nationwide that Democrats could target in 2010. “That’s not to say he’s extremely vulnerable,” Wasserman notes. “It’s just that Democrats don’t have many options.”

Indeed, widespread gains for Democrats in the last two elections mean that the party will be playing defense in a lot of GOP-friendly districts. In addition, the party that controls both the White House and Congress has historically fared poorly in the first mid-term elections. Those factors likely mean that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other national groups will choose their takeover targets prudently. Whether the Third District attracts significant attention — and money — will probably hinge on how strong a challenger emerges.

So far the race hasn’t drawn any takers. Madia says he doesn’t expect to make another run for the seat. “I felt like I had a good crack at in 2008 and I came up short,” he says. “We should give somebody else a chance.”

The name most often mentioned as a possible contender is state Sen. Terri Bonoff. She was widely viewed as the favorite to earn the DFL endorsement in 2008, but was thwarted by Madia’s upstart candidacy. At present, Bonoff’s not entering the fray.

“I’m not considering it at this time,” she says. “You can only take each day as it comes.”

Other names in the ether: state Rep. Steve Simon and former Edina mayor Jim Hovland. Neither returned a call seeking comment.

Wasserman doesn’t deem the vacant DFL field this early in the election cycle to be a liability necessarily.

“I think most of the candidates who got a very early start in the 2008 cycle fizzled out,” he says. “It’s often the late-breaking candidates who received the necessary buzz.”

Whoever ultimately emerges to challenge Paulsen will undoubtedly face an uphill battle. Bonoff argues that the DFL missed a prime opportunity in 2008.

“The Third District was ripe to elect a Democrat,” she says.

Madia doesn’t disagree. He believes that Paulsen won in part because the Republican did a better job of keeping a fine-tuned message.

“I think that they were very disciplined about their message, which was just taxes, frankly,” he says. “Taxes, taxes, taxes, taxes.”

Democrats in the district insist that they can still win the seat. Marge Hoffa, chair of the Third District DFL, argues that Paulsen is much more socially conservative than his GOP predecessor in the post.

“He’s no Jim Ramstad,” she says. “He’s just not. He’s much more conservative.”

But she acknowledges that the odds of taking over the seat will decrease with each election cycle.

“If we come up with somebody that’s really an outstanding candidate the money will pour in,” she says, “because this is our shot to take Paulsen out.”

Hovland, a recent convert to the DFL, had been trailing behind attorney Ashwin Madia and State Sen. Terri Bonoff, DFL-Minnetonka, in the race for the endorsement. The winner will face off against State Rep. Erik Paulsen, R-Eden Prairie, for the seat vacated by longtime Rep. Jim Ramstad, R-Minn.

In a statement announcing the campaign’s suspension, Hovland said, “I continue to stand by my pledge to support the candidate endorsed by the Third District Convention in April. However, in the event that no endorsement takes place at that convention, I plan to reevaluate my options at that time.”

In a statement sent to Minnesota Monitor, Madia praised Hovland, saying, “He’s a good friend and a strong voice for our progressive values. While his substantive contribution to our debates will be missed, I know Jim will continue his great efforts throughout our district and I look forward to working with him.”

Bonoff also issued a statement, saying, “Jim is an excellent public servant and a great asset to the people of Edina.  Over the last few months I have gotten to know Jim well and I have nothing but respect for the way he conducted his campaign.  Mayor Hovland is honest, upfront, well-versed in the issues, and I am proud to call him my friend.”

The departure of Hovland will leave the DFL race between Bonoff, a two-term state senator who serves as vice chair of the E-12 Education Subdivision, and Madia, a Gulf War veteran and attorney. Madia currently holds a lead in pledged delegates to the district convention.

Freeman preceded Sen. Amy Klobuchar in the County Attorney’s office before running unsuccessfully for Governor in 1998.  He returned to the office in 2006 by defeating fellow DFLer Andy Luger, with the support of many Republicans and independents in suburban areas of Hennepin County, many of which are in the Third district.

In an email sent today by the Hovland campaign, Freeman said

In the 2006 election I was very successful in the CD3 portion of Hennepin County because we captured not only the DFL vote, but a significant portion of the Independent and Republican vote.

In a district like CD3, where the Voter Index does NOT favor us Democrats, you must win those voter segments to achieve victory.

Jim Hovland can do the same thing in November.  His record working across Party lines as a Mayor and a metropolitan transportation official really demonstrates how successful he can be running against a right-wing Republican.

It’s an icky prospect for many endorsement-minded DFLers, but if the April 12th convention fails to produce an endorsement, it’s quite possible that the Hovland camp would see that as a very good thing.  Hovland’s stump-speech reasoning that his bipartisan record makes him best suited to win in November certainly seems to fit a strategy centered on taking one’s message to voters who can vote in either party’s primary in September.  If Hovland can clean up in SD41 (encompassing his hometown of Edina) and get a few delegates here and there across the rest of the district, totalling and holding around 20%, he might actually have the capacity to prevent an endorsement.

Of course, there’s still a political eternity left in this race, so that’s idle speculation right now.

With an exciting and hotly contested race for an open seat, the candidates and crowd did not disappoint.

On the issues, Terri Bonoff, Ashwin Madia and Jim Hovland largely agreed.  The biggest disagreement appeared on the first question on economic policy, on which Madia distinguished himself from his opponents by saying he opposes the $150 billion tax rebate program currently being issued by Congress.  However, their disagreement was more cordial than on other issues in other debates; even when Madia later repeated a line that “candidates ought to tell you how they’re going to pay for” a program and advocated letting the Bush tax cuts expire, Bonoff did not jump on that position, as she has in previous debates.

All in all, the debate represented a great chance for the hundreds of attendees to hear three strong advocates for the DFL platform.  All three were on their games, got in a few memorable one-liners and displayed expertise, clarity and a little humor — especially when moderator Amy Rotenberg accidentally addressed Hovland as Gov.  Hovland, causing a few laughs and a great reaction from Hovland himself, who stood up with a smile and accepted the previously unknown election to the state’s highest office.  Despite a technical malfunction that left a certain Samaritan blogger looking silly when a projector couldn’t handle the video signal from his laptop, the event was largely on time and fast-moving and covered domestic issues and foreign affairs efficiently and effectively.

Last night’s winner?  Too close to call.  The candidates were evenly matched, having honed their rhetoric and favorite citations over weeks on the campaign trail.  Bonoff in particular has improved her debate style, having largely done away with factoid lines beginning with “by the way” and advanced the argument that her experience in the  Legislature will let her record match up well against that of Republican Erik Paulsen in November.  Hovland has improved as well, still advocating some of the most clearly progressive positions of the three on health care and education.  Madia has made up significant stylistic and factual ground on domestic issues, which were a soft spot for him in earlier debates relative to his strength on foreign policy issues.

The race goes from here to the first of several Senate District conventions, at which delegates to the CD3 DFL convention will be elected this weekend.  Madia said afterward he expects the first SD convention, to be held at Eden Prairie High School this Saturday, to set much of the momentum going forward to the CD convention April 12. Hovland noted in comments afterward that he was building support from across the political spectrum, and both Bonoff and Madia echoed that thought.  Such sentiments are not entirely unexpected, but do not provide any clarity on where the candidates’ support bases are.

The bottom line, sad for policy wonks but welcome news for field organizing types, is that the outcome of this race will likely come down to organizing on the floor of those upcoming conventions.  The race for 91 delegates April 12 is officially on.

*More video is coming as soon as it’s processed*

And what about Minnesota?

Edwards’ event Tuesday was held at the Carpenters’ Union Hall in St. Paul, with an estimated attendance of 1,200.  Obama’s event Saturday is being held at the Target Center — yes, the one where the Timberwolves play.  Attendance estimates?  Good luck.  Obama’s campaign has been pounding the pavement hard in Minnesota for several weeks, and it remains to be seen where Edwards’ strong support in the labor wing of the DFL goes next week on Super Tuesday.

CD3 Forum Tonight

DFL candidates Terri Bonoff, Jim Hovland and Ashwin Madia meet tonight for their final debate appearance before precinct caucuses in a forum sponsored by the Minneapolis Central Labor Union Council.  Although there’s plenty of game left to be played, the debate promises at least a few fireworks as the candidates seek to encourage wide support at caucuses. Caucuses lead to Senate district conventions, which lead to the CD3 DFL convention, which is the end of the road for two of these candidates.  Tonight’s forum should be focused on bread-and-butter economic issues, which should provide interesting dynamics among the former Republican-turned-progressive Democrat Hovland and Bonoff, with his business background, and Madia, who’s been a strong stump presence.

The form will be held at the Plymouth Creek Center, 14800 34th St., in Plymouth.  Doors will open at 6 p.m., and I’ll be there to cover the proceedings.

In the meantime, we have money numbers in the Senate race! Let’s chew on some.

Senate:  DFL contender Al Franken announced yesterday that he raised a shade under $1.9 million for his campaign in the fourth quarter of 2007. With a net of about $700,000, that puts Franken’s cash-on-hand total above $3 million. It’s somewhat surprising that the Republican Party of Minnesota chooses Franken’s fund-raising prowess as an attack point, since incumbent Norm Coleman also announced yesterday that he raised $1.7 million in Q4 and now sits at $6 million in cash on hand. Coleman made clear that he’s had more Minnesotan donors than Franken so far (18,500 to 15,000), but did not appear to specify how many total donors he has. Since Franken’s campaign touted its total number (81,000), it is a reasonable bet that this number trumps Coleman’s total.

Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, who’s also seeking the DFL endorsement, said after Christmas that his campaign had raised over a quarter-million dollars in Q4. Mike Ciresi has not yet released fund-raising numbers, but when he does, we’ll have analysis.

More after the breakCD3:  As notebooked yesterday, Edina Mayor Jim Hovland officially kicked off his campaign for the 3rd District seat being vacated by Republican Jim Ramstad. In a statement accompanying the kickoff, Hovland said, “Pundits often talk about ours as a nation divided, as an intractable Blue-Red 50-50 split that results in stalemate and inaction until, finally, we’re forced to respond…The problem is that for too long we have focused on what divides us rather than what unites us.” Hovland staffer Jack Harris later said the day “exceeded our expectations” with well over 100 people attending the evening celebration. Hovland faces state Sen. Terri Bonoff of Minnetonka and attorney Ashwin Madia for the DFL endorsement, to be decided in convention later this year. (Aside: As if DFLers needed another reason to get out and vote this year…)

President:  State Republican Party Chair Ron Carey has announced that he is chairing the in-state campaign of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Elected officials are one thing; endorsements are just what they do this time of year. But it’s interesting that the head of the state party, charged with administrating the party process from precinct caucuses to state convention, is actively working for one of the contenders on the side.

In today’s case, that Something Bigger is the Iowa Caucuses, set for this evening, which will officially kick off the 2008 presidential race.  But that doesn’t mean there isn’t local news to be read until the caucuses actually start:

CD3:  Attorney and Iraq vet Ashwin Madia was endorsed by the DFL Veterans’ Caucus yesterday. “It’s important to remember that ‘supporting our troops’ doesn’t end when their deployment does,” he said in a statement. “We have a deep moral obligation to stand by those who have served our country with honor as they work to successfully transition back into civilian life.”  Madia faces State Sen. Terri Bonoff of Minnetonka and Mayor Jim Hovland of Edina for the DFL endorsement, to be decided later this year.  Bonoff is generally seen as the frontrunner, with the support of several DFL legislators and the influential local American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Workers (AFSCME) unit.

CD1:  Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis announces today that he raised over $156,000 in 2007 for his bid to unseat first-term DFL incumbent Tim Walz.  Although this total does not match up well with Walz’s fundraising success — as of the third quarter of 2007, Walz had over $711,000 in cash on hand — it does match up well with Davis’ GOP rivals.  State Sen. Dick Day reported total receipts of around $157k through Q3 2007, while State Rep. Randy Demmer reported around $150k raised through the same period.  While it is likely that Davis’ total leaves him in 3rd place in the money chase, it should be enough to wage a viable campaign for the Republican endorsement.

HD61B:  Affordable housing advocate and community activist Jeff Hayden announced on the Minneapolis Issues Forum that he will run for the House seat being vacated by four-term State Rep. Neva Walker (h/t MN Blue).  The district covers a large swath of Minneapolis, and should not see any credible conservative candidates.

SD25:  The special election to replace State Sen. Tom Neuville, who was recently appointed to the bench by Gov. Pawlenty, takes place today.  DFLer and high school teacher Kevin Dahle faces off against Republican businessman and former State Rep. Ray Cox.

How are they doing money-wise? It’s anyone’s guess, really. The campaigns are understandably skittish about releasing numbers too early, outside their prescribed media strategies.  Here’s what we do know (going in alphabetical order):Terri Bonoff (DFL): The state senator from Minnetonka is expected to lead the way in fundraising through the end of the year. Rumors of a total between $400k and $500k are outlandish, but given a short quarter (with the holidays), it’s not out of the question for Bonoff to have raised between $150k and $200k in Q4. Both of Bonoff’s DFL rivals have indicated that they will likely not raise as much as Bonoff, so given her immediate Q3 success with so-called “low-hanging fruit” (easy dollars raised from friends, family and political allies), Bonoff-as-money-leader is a pretty safe bet right now.

Jim Hovland (DFL): Hovland’s interim campaign manager indicated early this past week that while Hovland wouldn’t equal Bonoff’s number, the campaign is very satisfied with its fundraising progress so far. Hovland does bring another aspect to the donor chase, bringing a network of moderate Republican supporters in the southwest metro into the fold. However, it remains to be seen whether he can translate his party switch into a corresponding switch in donor support for old-school Republicans with money to spare.

Ashwin Madia (DFL): Like Hovland, Madia’s campaign indicated to me last week that while they would likely not match Bonoff, they are happy with their progress. Madia’s campaign has touted their online fundraising total, quickly approaching $100k raised through the Democratic fundraising clearinghouse ActBlue. This sword cuts both ways, however — the other campaigns take online donations directly through their Web sites, while Madia’s campaign site simply links to his ActBlue page. The value of this move depends on your perspective: It lends itself to an open approach to modern campaigning, but it prevents the campaign from keeping those numbers private and also means they do not have immediate access to that money. Pros and cons everywhere.  Unfortunately, Madia’s campaign would not divulge any estimates on his traditional fundraising progress, so this is a wait-and-see.

Erik Paulsen (RPM): Does Paulsen even need to raise money? Yes and no. “Yes” in that he needs to demonstrate the capacity to raise sufficient funds to compete and make the National Republican Campaign Committee commit to defending the seat with independent expenditures, but “no” in that he faces no serious competition (yet) for the Republican nomination. In addition, he is Jim Ramstad’s political protege, having worked for the outgoing congressman before being elected to the Legislature, and there are plenty of ways for Ramstad to give Paulsen a financial assist later. Rumors that Paulsen has had trouble raising money so far could not be substantiated, so the timing of a personal endorsement from Ramstad will be interesting — too soon, and it looks like the Paulsen campaign needs a boost; too late, and he won’t be able to raise the funds to force a “competitive” label on this race for a cash-strapped NRCC.

We hope to cover a wide range of topics of interest to citizens in the Third District and across Minnesota.  “

Mr. Hovland should be online presently, so when he posts a comment, let’s start the discussion!

[Update]:  We had a great discussion with Mr. Hovland, but unfortunately, an hour just isn’t long enough to ask every question we want.  Read the entire live blog here, and watch for an update in the next day with some of Mr. Hovland’s answers to questions for which he didn’t have time.

A candidate forum that went from thoughtful to zany as quickly as you could say “Impeach George W. Bush.”

Monday night’s candidate forum presented a chance for the three leading DFL contenders in Minnesota’s Third District race to demonstrate their knowledge and ideas on Iraq, Iran, and general U.S. foreign policy.  Moderator Eric Black did yeoman’s work managing time and the questions from the audience during the last portion of the session, and the DFL candidates — state Sen. Terri Bonoff, Edina Mayor Jim Hovland, and attorney/Iraq vet Ashwin Madia were able to formulate strong answers to most of the questions on the agenda, having been armed with an outline before the event.

So who won? If it were a standard debate, there was only one choice:  Madia by several lengths.  In an event sponsored by veterans’ and peace organizations, Madia started with a statement about his background as a Marine, establishing his bona fides on Iraq (having served there) and didn’t stumble.  He garnered the best applause of the night on a question concerning the future of the U.S. role as superpower, saying “our nation is strongest when leading not by size or strength, but by who we are.  I want to go back to the time when we led on ideals.”  He went on to outline specific steps — stop the practice of extraordinary rendition, stop parsing words about what torture means, go back to international law, and respect Geneva conventions — each of which produced a spate of applause from the audience.  This question was toward the end of the event, and should stick in attendees’ memories.

By contrast, Bonoff and Hovland experienced significant stumbles.  Although having the advantage of going third on a question about Iran, and having heard the positive responses Madia and Hovland garnered with their opinions that Iran did not pose an immediate threat, Bonoff went full-bore into an explanation of why Iran is a threat because “they want to wipe Israel off the map.”  She explained, upon some light laughter and clucking from the audience , “Do I think force is the right way to deal with that threat?  Absolutely not.  The administration should be embarrassed by what they’ve been saying about Iran.”  She continued with a wonky answer, advocating a multilateral diplomatic solution to the Iran issue, as the other two candidates did.

Hovland generally did a good job demonstrating his “one of you” appeal to the audience, mostly liberal Democrats, who are still getting to know the Mayor who only recently switched his party affiliation.  On the Iran question, Hovland produced a great quip:  “Iran cries out for a diplomatic solution.  There’s no reason to be rattling sabers like President Bush did with Iraq….when the only tool in your toolbox is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”  Hovland also had the misfortune of being the first respondent to the most divisive question of the night, one issued from an audience member:  “Has President Bush committed impeachable offenses?”

It was at this point that the event went temporarily from thoughtful and congenial to, dare I say, angry and slightly disrespectful.  Although I can understand the drastic feeling of hopelessness for our country, our Constitution, and our government among those who want President Bush gone as soon as possible, to put the question to these candidates as more than a simple hypothetical is worse than useless.  As Hovland quipped, “[Bush] will be going out the back door as one of us is coming in the front.”  But Hovland, answering first, garnered audible moans and several louder protests when he expressed uncertainty that President Bush had committed such offenses.  At what point do we, as thinking, rational people, realize that Bush will be gone in a year, and then we can get back to the business of fixing our country and its reputation, and stop putting loaded hypotheticals to candidates for Congress?  The Democratic House leadership doesn’t want 2008 to be a repeat of 1998, when Newt Gingrich’s Republican caucus thought they would ride impeachment proceedings to a crushing national victory and instead lost five seats.  For better or worse, we need to accept this, folks.

Hovland, answering first, garnered audible moans and several louder protests when he expressed uncertainty that President Bush had committed such offenses.  Madia and Bonoff had the advantage of following Hovland on this question. Bonoff said “there are so many things we could go after President Bush for and say it’s an impeachable offense. Who cares about Monica Lewinsky?  Has [Bush] done things that make him impeachable? I think the answer is yes. Do I want to right now pursue impeachment proceedings? No.” This answer garnered another series of sighs from the audience. Madia pivoted well from the question of impeaching Bush, saying that while he thought Bush had committed impeachable offenses, more important issues include balancing the federal budget and getting the U.S. out of Iraq.

The event format reserved time for three minor candidates to speak as well.  Kevin Smith, who briefly opposed Wendy Wilde for the Third district DFL endorsement in 2006, spoke briefly on peace issues, garnering polite applause.  Mary O’Connor, a Libertarian city councilwoman from Brooklyn Center, spoke (but not very well) and advocated letting Israel be removed from the map, returning to the pre-1947 standard.  The crowd’s response was tepid at best.  Amy Alexander, who says she is seeking the Green Party nomination in the race, was given time before the microphone, but her time could best be described as a rant, and did not appear to have the effect that past third-party bids have had upon activists discouraged by the two-party system.

Bottom line:  Terri Bonoff and Jim Hovland had strong moments, but each stumbled a bit.  Madia was the strongest performer in this forum, and not by a little, and his rhetoric wasn’t focused solely on appealing to the liberal-leaning audience.  If he can get a few high-profile endorsements, raise a solid chunk of change in the fourth quarter, and work hard on the ground leading up to caucuses and the CD3 convention, he could be a contender.