Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen won reelection in Minnesota’s Third Congressional District on Tuesday night, with the Associated Press calling the race about an hour after polls closed. At that time, Paulsen led DFLer Jim Meffert 58 percent to 37 percent with 80 percent of Hennepin County reporting.

Paulsen, a freshman, won the open seat in the 3rd Congressional District in 2008 with 48 percent of the vote after moderate Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad retired.

Paulsen faced a challenge from Meffert, a former lobbyist and member of the state Parent Teacher Association.

DFLers have been attempting to paint Paulsen as out of touch and tout his close voting record with Rep. Michele Bachmann, with whom he voted 93 percent of the time.

But, the DFL has focused so heavily on Bachmann that Meffert has gotten little help from the party. Paulsen outraised Meffert by $2 million and had seven times more cash on hand by mid-October. He’s run a series of negative television ads against Meffert.

The district was rated a tossup based on the Cook Partisan Voting Index; the district is split evenly between DFLers and Republicans.

The arrangement raises questions about the constitutional separation of church and state, and some experts say the state has overstepped its bounds in contracting with Teen Challenge.

In 2001, the Minnesota Legislature approved a funding increase of 46 percent for Teen Challenge and authorized another in 2005, capping payments at $700 per unit. Experts say those funding increases create the impression that the state favors the treatment center which is closely affiliated with the Assemblies of God, a pentecostal Christian denomination.

“To me, I think, that the legislature is setting special rates for a pervasively sectarian organization is enough to make that funding unconstitutional,” said Alex Luchenitser of Americans United for the Separation of Church and State. “You have clear favoritism and endorsement of a religious program.”

Religious character “inseparable” from treatment

Beyond perceptions of legislative favoritism is the question of how the state got involved with a religious ministry in the first place. The answer goes back a decade and involved two years of legal wrangling between Hennepin County and Teen Challenge.

In early 2000, Teen Challenge, Hennepin County and the Department of Human Services began a discussion about contracting with Teen Challenge to provide chemical dependency treatment services to county clients.

According to some 1,300 pages of documents obtained by the Minnesota Independent, that arrangement hit a few snags along the way as Hennepin County looked for a way to contract with a pervasively Christian program.

“I will tell you that Teen Challenge has been consulting with us for the past couple years and that there seems to be no way for them to separate the treatment from the Christian orientation and beliefs,” Peg Murphy, former program manager of Hennepin County’s Chemical Health Division, wrote in a letter to the Hennepin County Attorney’s office. “Because Hennepin County’s standard contract language precludes funding for ‘religious training or services,’ we do not intend to negotiate a contract with Teen Challenge in the absence of authorization from your office.”

She urged the county attorney to offer an opinion before county officials could negotiate a contract.

In early 2000, Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar approved the arrangement, presumably under the doctrine of “beneficiary choice,” giving Teen Challenge the go-ahead to submit an application.

The county rejected requests by the Minnesota Independent to obtain a copy of that opinion, citing the documents as “privileged.”

Klobuchar would go on to help secure a federal earmark for the program as U.S. Senator in 2008 along with former Rep. Jim Ramstad. And the organization has secured the support of a number of other elected officials. First Lady Mary Pawlenty was a past member of the board of directors, and Gov. Pawlenty has donated a large sum of campaign funds ($85,892) to the program. Rep. Michele Bachmann donated $9,200 in campaign funds related to the Tom Petters Ponzi scheme scandal, but Teen Challenge later returned the “tainted” funds.

“Beneficiary choice” means a client has a choice between a secular and a religious treatment program, and the client can pay money given by the government to the treatment of their choosing. In other states, the system works with vouchers, which Minnesota doesn’t use. Instead Teen Challenge gets paid a flat rate multiplied by the number of clients in its care who receive state assistance. It’s that rate that the Minnesota legislature voted to increase in 2001 and 2005.

Luchenitser said that the “beneficiary choice” arrangement that Hennepin County set up with Teen Challenge may be legally problematic.

“What’s clear is that this funding has to be completely under the control of the individual,” he said. If the money is not part of a voucher system, he added, then there isn’t a true choice of program, only “approved” programs that the county contracts with, such as Teen Challenge.

And the state sets the rate of reimbursement, not the client, which creates a constitutional problem when the Legislature decides to give a religious program “a raise,” he said.

“Government should not influence how much money goes to a specific provider,” especially when its a religious provider, Luchenitser said. “It puts the force of government authority behind it,” which he characterizes as an endorsement of religion.

While the County Attorney’s office gave the program the green light, problems continued to plague the fledgling arrangement because of MNTC’s religious nature. The county’s contracting department raised a red flag in 2001 about the evangelical treatment center’s hiring practices: Teen Challenge said it would only hire Christians who adhered to a statement of faith and a code of ethics.

“Minnesota Teen Challenge is a residential Christian discipleship program dealing with adolescents and adults with life-controlling issues, and is a para-church ministry operating under the authority of the Assemblies of God denomination,” the group’s statement of faith begins (PDF). “Our purpose is to train individuals (students) in our program to be disciples of Jesus Christ.”

That statement also states that “whether a person is preparing a meal, writing a computer program, or generating a financial statement” for the organization, that person must “be an effective witness for Christ.”

It requires all employees to pray for the program and may be called upon “to minister to program students” with their testimony.

In MNTC’s code of conduct, all employees are required to attend church and to pray. They are prohibited from viewing pornography or being in a romantic relationship with someone of the same sex.

Hennepin County took issue with those employment practices and rejected Teen Challenge’s application because it violated the county’s ban on religious discrimination. The county said that MNTC could resubmit the application with a new affirmative action plan.

Finally a compromise was reached: Teen Challenge limited the practice to executive, leadership, pastoral, and counselor positions.

Teen Challenge’s chemical dependency program manager Cecilia Winsor explained the news in an email to the county’s senior planning analyst, Michael Miller.

“There are certain ‘ministry’ positions which will have religious requirements to them, and those positions will only be filled by people who can perform the job,” she wrote (PDF). “A Muslim would not be considered for a Pastoral Counselor position, but would be considered to work in our Accounting [Department], for example.”

According to state records (PDF), Teen Challenge requires 21 of its 40 employees to be Christians.

Some of those job descriptions highlight the close connections to Pentecostalism. The executive director’s position description says that the director must be “approved by the Assemblies of God and endorsed by the National Division of Home Missions.”

The National Division is now called Assemblies of God U.S. Missions, and its mission is “to equip, empower and encourage the Assemblies of God to evangelize America.”

Teen Challenge International, Inc., of which Minnesota Teen Challenge reports to monthly, is one of the six ministries that make up the Missions.

Meffert sent signals he was ready to run six weeks ago. He jumps in two weeks after forensic psychiatrist Maureen Hackett announced her bid for the seat, while another potential DFL rival to Paulsen, state Sen. Terri Bonoff, remains on the fence though she is leaning toward running.

Update: “I’m not in this race and the door is open,” Bonoff told the Minnesota Independent. “The election is a year from now.” By what date would she need to announce were she going to run for Congress? “No comment.”

After a year in office, Paulsen has an enormous financial advantage over any challenger, with nearly $1 million in his campaign coffers.

Still, outside observers and the Republican Party itself have singled out Minnesota’s Third District as a competitive race in 2010. Democrats have selected the district as worthy of attack ads targeting Paulsen on issues and votes.

Politically speaking, a Meffert-Paulsen matchup would offer classic DFL/GOP contrasts. Paulsen has charted a more conservative course than his predecessor, moderate Republican Jim Ramstad. Meffert, chief executive at the nonprofit Minnesota Optometric Association, pledges to use government to fight for “jobs, stronger schools, health reform, [and] a strong economy.”

But demographically — to use a word the Paulsen campaign wielded against DFL opponent Ashwin Madia last year — Meffert and Paulsen make an intriguingly matched pair. Both are graduates of St. Olaf College, where Paulsen delivered the commencement address last spring. (Meffert is two years younger.) And both are suburban fathers: Paulsen has four children to Meffert’s three.

Meffert put his family status front and center in announcing his candidacy, stating in the second sentence of his news release that he “lives in Edina with his wife Karrin and their three young children” and beginning the last paragraph with this: “Being a husband and father of three has shaped Jim’s volunteer efforts.”

Rep. Jim Ramstad (WDCpix)

Former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad will not be seeking to replace Gov. Tim Pawlenty at the Capitol. The popular, moderate Republican has publicly flirted with seeking the state’s top post. But in a press release issued this afternoon he disavowed any gubernatorial ambitions.

“I am humbled by the tremendous outpouring of support from people across party lines, but I have decided not to become a candidate,” Ramstad said in the statement. “Although I plan to continue my public service, it won’t be as Governor.”

So far six Republicans have filed to run for governor. At least another half dozen GOP’ers are seriously considering the contest.

(Via Political Animal)

Photo: MnIndy

An extended CQ Politics piece on U.S. Rep. Erik Paulsen’s prospects for re-election arrives at the quarter-mark of his term. The main news: The freshman Republican still has no announced rival in a district, Minnesota’s Third, that’s trending left.

Democrats and Republicans see Paulsen’s hold on his seat as shaky, yet another month has ticked by — it was late May when the Minnesota Independent last examined Paulsen’s 2010 vulnerability — without a challenger coming forward.

Meanwhile, CQ Politics notes that Paulsen is part of the GOP’s Patriot Program targeting extra help for 10 freshmen whose tenures are tenuous. (As such, Paulsen was a beneficiary of a $1,000-per-candidate “Patriot Day” fundraiser on June 25.)

Mention is made of the legacy of former Rep. Jim Ramstad, Paulsen’s more moderate mentor — but not of any ramifications that Ramstad’s potential entry into the 2010 Minnesota governor’s race (even under an Independence Party banner) — might have on Third District dynamics.

The most obvious dark-horse challenger is the Independence Party. Ever since Jesse Ventura blew up the political conventional wisdom by winning the gubernatorial contest in 1998, the IP has been a formidable factor every four years.

Former U.S. Rep Tim Penny

In 2002, former U.S. Rep. Tim Penny brought broad name recognition and moderate policy credentials to the contest. He ultimately pulled just 16 percent of the vote, but was likely hurt by heightened partisanship in the wake of U.S. Sen. Paul Wellstone’s death.

“The final week of that campaign everything changed,” recalls Penny, now president of the Southern Minnesota Initiative Foundation. “I went from being as likely a victor as the other two to being the odd man out in just a number of days.”

Four years later the IP endorsed Peter Hutchinson, a former state finance commissioner, foundation executive and deputy mayor of Minneapolis. But his broad resume didn’t ultimately hold much sway with voters: He managed just six percent of the vote.

Despite these declining fortunes, the IP has retained its major party status, meaning it’s guaranteed a spot on the ballot. So who else might be looking at the party’s endorsement for 2010?

Penny says he’s not interested, noting that foundation work and other endeavors keep him plenty busy. But he’s optimistic that the IP will run a credible candidate.

“Every year there’s a path for an independent candidate to get from the starting gate to the winner’s circle,” he says. “I think there’s a path this year given the fact that it’s going to be wide open.”

Another perennial contender, Dean Barkley (pictured), isn’t ruling anything out. Outside of Ventura, Barkley has been the most visible face of the IP over the last two decades. Most recently, he siphoned off 15 percent of the vote in the (still ongoing) U.S. Senate bloodbath between Norm Coleman and Al Franken.

“I have some mild interest in it,” Barkley says. “I wouldn’t call it a great deal of interest, but I’m at least looking at it.”

In other words: Barkley will fall on his sword and run again if no other credible candidate emerges. The IP is currently in the process of gauging interest among other potential challengers.

Rep. Jim Ramstad. Photo: Lauren Victoria Burke, WDCpix

Heading up that effort is Jack Uldrich, the party’s chairman. Among the folks he’s contacted about the contest: former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad (pictured), Metropolitan Council Chair Peter Bell and Minnesota Chamber of Commerce President David Olson. Uldrich argues that the decision of Gov. Tim Pawlenty not to seek a third term provides an opportunity for the IP to become a larger factor in the contest.

“He was difficult for both Peter Hutchinson and Tim Penny to run against because he appears more moderate than he actually is,” Uldrich says. “That will make it easier for us.

Uldrich further argues that the potential of wealthy Democratic candidates (i.e. Mark Dayton and Matt Entenza) to bypass the endorsement process and run in a contested primary could provide a further opening for third-party candidates. “They’re going to have really a bloodbath on that side,” he says. “They’re going to go to a primary and they’re going to come out of that pretty weak.”

While the IP is almost certain to be a factor in the 2010 gubernatorial contest, other third parties will have to scrap mightily for any electoral clout. The Green Party of Minnesota previously was accorded major party status, but lost that pedigree after failing to garner five percent of the vote in any of the statewide contests in 2006. Even with guaranteed ballot access the Greens have never won more than two percent of the vote in a governor’s race.

According to Cam Gordon, a Minneapolis City Council member and Green Party activist, the party has formed a committee to explore options for 2010. But so far no candidates have indicated that they’ll be seeking the party’s endorsement and the Greens are likely to focus on local contests.

“I’m feeling somewhat hopeful,” says Gordon of the party’s overall prospects in 2010. “But I think it’s been a hard time for the Greens the last few years. It will really be a turning point for us if we can get somebody elected to the state House.”

At least one candidate will be running as a Green — but has no intention of seeking the party’s official backing. Richard Klatte says he grew tired of the party’s disorganization and lack of candidate recruitment strategies.

“I’ve gone to the meetings and they’ve totally ignored me and my ideas,” says Klatte, who hosts a cable-access program called Third Party Forum and has made unsuccessful runs for office several times previously. “It’s a waste of time.”

Further undermining the Green Party’s prospects are the plans of Ken Pentel (pictured). The environmental activist was the party’s official nominee in both 2002 and 2006. But Pentel has split ties with the Greens and is in the early stages of building his own political organization called the Ecology Democracy Network.

Pentel has been traveling the state by bicycle and recruiting supporters for the fledgling coalition, with roughly 150 people currently in the fold. The organization will advocate for radical changes to economic, agricultural and electoral policies in order to avert what he believes is looming environmental devastation.

“There is no political party, there is no political movement that is literally dealing with this,” he says. “Everybody’s scared. We sit around on our hands rationalizing it.”

Pentel expects to develop a political party sometime this fall and hopes to have 100 candidates running in the 2010 elections, with himself at the top of the ticket. The break with the Greens comes after mounting frustration at the party’s lack of electoral success.

“The people who got into the decision-making positions were not that interested in building a political party to power,” argues Pentel. “They didn’t want to develop candidates, recruit candidate and get on the ballot line.”

While Pentel’s political organization is still in its embryonic stages, at least one 2010 hopeful is eschewing party politics all together. Chris Wright registered with the Minnesota Campaign Finance Board in December to run for governor. He’s a computer technician and former activist with the (now defunct) Grassroots Party, which focused primarily on marijuana legalization.

“What I really wanted to do is raise some issues that are simply not being raised by either of the two major parties,” says Wright, citing energy independence and drug legalization. “The only ones who make money on the prohibition of narcotics are the cops and the gangs. Let’s stop doing this.”

Of course, Wright will undoubtedly find it extremely difficult to get these opinions heard without the backing of a political party — major or minor. His previous run for Governor, in 1998, doesn’t inspire confidence in his prospects: he garnered 1,727 votes, or .1 percent of all votes cast.

The letter (PDF) cites a December 2008 Minnesota Independent report about a Department of Justice earmark secured by former Rep. Jim Ramstad in support of MNTC’s Know the Truth program, an educational program held in schools and churches featuring program graduates.

“[B]ecause the Know the Truth program is a recruiting tool for MNTC’s thoroughly religious drug treatment program, the DOJ is supporting an inherently religious activity,” the group’s letter said. It also noted that MNTC only hires Christian staff for the program.

MNTC received $235,000 this year for the program at the request of Ramstad and Sen. Amy Klobuchar and is one of nine programs targeted by the Americans United complaint.

“In providing these grants, the U.S. Department of Justice is unconstitutionally aiding religion,” the Rev. Barry W. Lynn, Americans United’s executive director, said in a statement. “There’s no reason why organizations that evangelize or that discriminate in hiring on religious grounds should ever receive a penny from the government, let alone millions of dollars.”

Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s announcement earlier this month that he will not seek a third term has unleashed a political gold rush among Republican politicians in the state. Minnesota’s current political landscape includes an eye-popping 18 declared and possible gubernatorial contenders. With the list of Democratic contenders also reaching well into double digits, it promises to be one of the most wide-open gubernatorial campaigns in decades.

And if the slate of Democratic candidates was difficult to assess, the outlook for the GOP contenders is even more difficult to size up. With Pawlenty dominating the state party over the last six years, and the Republicans out of leadership in both legislative bodies since 2006, there are few household names in the bunch. In addition, the candidate that many political observers thought to be the odds-on favorite — businessman Brian Sullivan, who narrowly lost the GOP nomination to Pawlenty in 2002 — has announced that he’ll be sitting this contest out.

The Republicans’ endorsing convention is not until at least May of next year and by then the list of challengers will have undoubtedly been whittled down significantly. With Democrats holding all the down-ballot statewide posts, some of these contenders will likely turn their attention to those offices. But here’s a look at the emerging field for 2010.

Definitely in: Former Minnesota State Auditor Pat Anderson, former state Rep. Bill Haas, state Rep. Paul Kohls and House Minority Leader Marty Seifert.

Rep. Marty Seifert

Pat Anderson

Anderson and Seifert probably start out with better name recognition than any of the other contenders in the GOP field. The former is the only gubernatorial candidate to have previously won a statewide contest, but failed in her re-election bid for state auditor in 2006 in a tough year for the GOP. She’s since landed at the Minnesota Free Market Institute.

Anderson sees a change in the GOP base that has its roots in the 2006 Ron Paul presidential campaign, and that will influence the endorsement process. “It is a true libertarian Republican movement, and they’re changing the party,” she said in an interview. “There’s less discussion about social issues and more discussion about the Constitution.”

Seifert is still a relatively fresh face at age 37, but has more than a decade of experience at the state legislature, including two sessions as House minority leader. The Republican from Marshall earned notice for his cool-headed, if often caustic, opposition to the DFL majority.

Rep. Paul Kohls

Kohls is also among a cadre of prominent, young GOP legislators seeking to emerge as a statewide leader of the party. The Republican from Victoria figures Sullivan’s decision to stay on the sideline has made the race even more wide open. But he still believes the field will be winnowed down before next year’s state convention.

“I fully expect that some people will get in and not be able to raise money or generate support and will quickly get out,” he said. “I don’t think people can defer starting to raise money very long because it’s going to take some money just to put an organization together and get started.”

Former Rep. Bill Haas

Haas brings an impressive resume — 10 years in the legislature; two terms as mayor of Champlin — but has been out of the political spotlight for three years. He’ll need to ramp up his name recognition if he hopes to be a factor, but believes his status as something of an outsider could be a positive with voters. Haas said in an interview that he made the decision to run more than a year ago, dependent on whether Pawlenty bowed out.

“I’ve been watching the process and staying informed,” he said of the goings-on at the Capitol. “Minnesota is really sitting at a point now where we need to grow the economy. The backbone of our economy is small business owners and they’re hurting.”

Likely in: State Reps. Laura Brod and Morrie Lanning, state Sens. David Hann, Paul Koering and Geoff Michel, former House Majority Leader Speaker of the House Steve Sviggum and former Pawlenty Chief of Staff Charlie Weaver.

Sen. Steve Sviggum

Of this group Sviggum and Weaver are probably the best-known commodities. The former served as House Majority Leader Speaker of the House when Republicans controlled the house and has since joined the Pawlenty administration as commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry. The Kenyon Republican hasn’t officially entered the gubernatorial fray, but he’s made his interest no secret.

“I’ll do a little exploration, talk to some friends and some family over the next few days or a couple of weeks and see where it leads us,” Sviggum told Minnesota Public Radio earlier this month.

Charlie Weaver

Weaver also brings experience at multiple levels of state government. He spent almost a decade at the Capitol as a legislator, before unsuccessfully running for attorney general. Weaver then went on to serve as commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Public Safety during Jesse Ventura’s administration and as Pawlenty’s chief of staff. Currently he heads the Minnesota Business Partnership. Weaver isn’t quelling speculation that he’ll run.

“I am considering and will spend the summer looking at it very seriously,” he said. “No. 1, obviously, is my wife has to say ‘yes.’”

Weaver says the ability to raise large amounts of money will be important, noting that two prominent Democratic candidates, Matt Entenza and Mark Dayton, can utilize significant personal wealth in the contest.

Rep. Laura Brod

Sen. David Hann

Brod and Hann are among the Republican legislators who took up a more prominent leadership role in the just-completed legislative session. Both are seriously considering the gubernatorial contest, but could also be attractive options for down-ballot posts. The latter has stepped down from his leadership position in the state senate in order to test the waters, but hasn’t made his candidacy official.

“I don’t have a time-line,” Hann said of making a decision. “I’d like to come to a conclusion about that relatively quickly.”

Rep. Morrie Lanning

Lanning also confirms that he’s seriously considering the race. He’s in his fourth term at the legislature after serving as the mayor of Moorhead for 22 years.

“I’ve been very encouraged in the support I’ve been getting from around the state,” he says. “But I recognize it’s a big hill to climb.”

Sen. Paul Koering

Koering would face a unique hurdle if he decides to seek the GOP endorsement. As an openly gay legislator, many GOP activists would find his candidacy untenable. Nonetheless Koering said that he will abide by the endorsement if he ultimately decides to run. He also touts his out-state bona fides as a significant plus in a field dominated by metro-area legislators.

In the ether: Former U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman, state Rep. Tom Emmer, state Sen. Michelle Fischbach, Minnesota Chamber of Commerce President David Olson, former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad and businessman Mike Vekich.
How politically tainted will Coleman be after the never-ending U.S. Senate battle with Al Franken? Several polls have indicated that Minnesotans have lost patience with his court battle. While the GOP base may be thankful to Coleman for his persistence in preventing the Democrats from establishing a filibuster proof majority in Washington, D.C., the general public is unlikely to welcome another campaign.

Ramstand faces the opposite problem. The popular former legislator would likely be formidable in a general election but is unlikely to have much cache with the GOP base.

Emmer is a conservative firebrand who loves to stir the pot. He’d at least be a wildcard in any endorsement contest.

Vekich made a bid for governor in 2002, but bowed out when it became apparent that he couldn’t win the GOP nomination. Nonetheless he’s made noises about another bid.

Next Monday: A look at the potential Green and Independence party fields.

Earlier: Who’s in for 2010: Democrats eyeing the governor’s mansion

“We don’t have term limits in Minnesota, but we do have good judgment and common sense,” Pawlenty said. “Time marches on and now it’s time to give someone else a chance.”

The governor, however, refused to be drawn into speculation that the move is an indication that he harbors presidential ambitions. “I don’t have any plans beyond serving out my term,” Pawlenty insisted. “I’m not ruling anything in or out.”

In recent weeks, Pawlenty has drawn plaudits from conservative quarters for his hard-line stance on fixing the state’s budget problems without raising taxes. Americans for Tax Reform, arguably the country’s most stridently anti-tax advocacy group, named him a “Hero of the Taxpayer.” An op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal praised his budget maneuvers as a potential blueprint for how the national GOP could get its groove back.

At today’s press conference, Pawlenty brandished his fiscal conservative bona fides on several occasions. “The fact that we’ve brought more competition to Minnesota by keeping a lid on taxes and spending is really important,” he said when asked about his proudest achievements in office.

But Pawlenty continued to plead ignorance about any national political plans. When asked at the press conference if he intended to start a political-action committee, he professed uncertainty about the logistics of setting up such an organization.

The governor’s decision not to attempt a three-peat is also viewed by many political observers as bad news for Al Franken. The reason: It may suggest that Pawlenty will be emboldened to hold off signing an election certificate even if Franken prevails in the U.S. Senate contest at the Minnesota Supreme Court, as is widely anticipated. Such a maneuver would curry favor with the party’s base and the GOP leadership in the nation’s capital, but it would likely doom any statewide political ambitions in Minnesota.

Pawlenty’s remarks on this matter in the past have been ambiguous. Today he stated that he would adhere to the directives of the courts. “I think you guys have really over-baked that issue,” he said. “You’re really spinning out of control on that.”

In cold political terms, the decision not to run for re-election was probably not particularly difficult. Although polling released since the end of the legislative session has indicated that Pawlenty is still relatively popular, he would have faced an extremely difficult battle. He failed to garner 50 percent of the vote in his first two runs for the top office and Democrats have made significant electoral gains in the last two election cycles. In addition, it’s uncertain how Pawlenty’s budgetary hardball will play with Minnesota voters. Defeat at the ballot box in 2010 would surely doom any future national ambitions.

But the governor insisted that fear of losing played no part in his decision. “I absolutely could have won and I think would have won a third term,” he said.

Pawlenty’s decision not to seek re-election likely means there will be a crowded field of contenders for the GOP crown in next year’s gubernatorial contest. Among the names in the ether: former Pawlenty chief of staff Charlie Weaver, former House Speaker Steve Sviggum, House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, former State Auditor Patricia Anderson, state Sens. David Hann and Julie Rosen, state Reps. Paul Kohls and Laura Brod, former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad and GOP National Committeeman Brian Sullivan.

One potential candidate unlikely to run: Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau.
“Someone once told me never say never,” Molnau said at the press conference, “but I think it’s probably highly unlikely that I would be looking at a governorship.”

Perhaps the closest Pawlenty came to admitting national political ambitions during the press conference was when he talked about helping to rebuild the Republican Party after significant electoral setbacks during the last four years. “It’s got to be a party that can accommodate both Colin Powell and Rush Limbaugh if we’re going to be successful,” he said, taking a not-so-subtle swipe at former Vice President Dick Cheney.

Pawlenty also showcased the aw-shucks political skills that have made him a player in national politics. Near the close of the press conference, he insisted that his ideal job has nothing to do with politics.

“My dream job is to be an NHL defenseman, but at 48 and having no skill it’s tough,” he laughed.

Running for re-election in 2010 would be a risky proposition for Pawlenty. He’s twice won office with less than 50 percent of the vote, and in 2008 he benefited from the implosion of Democrat Mike Hatch’s campaign in the final week before election day.

Furthermore, it’s unknown what kind of political blowback Pawlenty will receive once the dust has settled on the state’s ongoing budget problems. Early polling by SurveyUSA suggested that the Republican governor came out of the session with reasonably good prospects for re-election. But that’s before he unilaterally cuts roughly $1 billion from the budget. Losing a re-election bid would almost certainly derail Pawlenty’s national political ambitions.

Speculation will now turn to who will fill the gubernatorial void for the GOP. It’s likely to be a crowded field. Some names expected to be in the mix: former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, former Pawlenty chief of staff Charlie Weaver, House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, former House Speaker Steve Sviggum, state Rep. Laura Brod and state Sen. Julie Rosen.

Pawlenty’s decision will also undoubtedly ramp up speculation that he’s going to run for president in 2012.