Image: Kevinzhengli

Rasmussen Reports released some of the first polling numbers on Minnesota’s gubernatorial race on Thursday, finding that for the most part Minnesotans are undecided about who they like for governor. And with a diluted field for the DFL, no candidate did well against both of the top Republican candidates, Tom Emmer and Marty Seifert.

Mark Dayton and R.T. Rybak fared the best against Emmer, both beating him 38 percent to 35 percent. None of the DFL candidates bested Marty Seifert, though, but Rybak tied him at 38 percent.

Among Republicans candidates, Emmer had the best net favorable rating — 38 percent favorable and 26 percent unfavorable — but 36 percent said they weren’t sure how they felt about him. Seifert garnered the support of 41 percent polled, but 33 percent found him unfavorable. Twenty-seven percent were undecided.

Among DFLers, only Rybak (49 to 37 percent) and Tom Bakk (27 to 22 percent) had a net positive rating. Mark Dayton had the highest favorable rating with 44 percent, but an even higher unfavorable rating at 45 percent. Of those polled, 39 percent liked Margaret Anderson Kelliher, but 41 percent didn’t. Matt Entenza had similar numbers with 27 percent and 31 percent. Tom Rukavina had an even split with 27 percent approving and the same disapproving.

Elsewhere in Minnesota news this morning …

BLOOMINGTON: This is what democracy looks like! Twenty gubernatorial candidates, sitting behind two very long tables. [Southwest Newspapers via Minnesota News Council]

LAKE SUPERIOR: This is what improper regulatory protection looks like. Viral hemorrhagic septicemia (VHS), the fish-killing viral invader, finally makes it to Gitchee Gumee. (Duluth News Tribune)

STATE CAPITOL: “The most to gain and the most to lose.” That’s what Margaret Anderson Kelliher’s got, as candidate for governor and state House Speaker. [Politics in Minnesota]

ST. PAUL: GAMC will survive one month longer. Now the state medical care program for the poor will die April 1. [Associated Press]

DELLWOOD: The Elephant Who Protected the Donkey. State auditor candidate Pat Anderson already let go of her own campaign for governor — but now she is helping DFLer R.T. Rybak’s. [Polinaut]

RAMSEY: City of 23,000 could get veterans hospital and train station. And a pony. [Star Tribune]

Elsewhere in Minnesota news this morning …

STATE CAPITOL: Minnesota better get mentioned during T-Paw’s big speech. Maybe those cop lay-offs and school-aid shifts too, when Gov. Pawlenty delivers his State of the State for Feb. 11. [Hot Dish Politics; West Central Tribune]

MINNEAPOLIS: Oh, “No“! Paul Thissen charges fellow DFL gubernatorial candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher with stealing his “Yes-No” refrain. [Polinaut]

ST. PAUL: Lucky 13. The DFL gubernatorial race sounds like so much fun, someone new has signed up. [Associated Press]

MINNEAPOLIS: City Council president defends paying for personal expenses with campaign funds. Barb Johnson’s life is a perpetual campaign, and “one bad-hair day gets published on the Internet.” [Star Tribune]

ST. CLOUD: “I’m scared of this city.” A public forum inspired by the posting of anti-Muslim cartoons could be just another in a string of “kumbaya meetings” if no action is taken.[St. Cloud Times]

ALBERT LEA: Suit filed over abuse at nursing home. The details do not live up to the name “Good Samaritan Society,” to say the least. [Albert Lea Tribune]

Former Speaker Dee Long predicts it’ll be “tough,” while political scientist David Schultz calls the managing of twin responsibilities “risky.” But Kelliher says she’s looking forward to playing those roles over the next few months.

“There are both positives and negatives to being in that position,” Long tells the Minnesota Independent. ”She has more of a platform [as a candidate] than she would otherwise have, because she is the Speaker.”

On the other hand, says Long, the leadership job is “a lot of responsibility [and] a tough role.”

The main rub: “not having sufficient opportunity to contact delegates. …  If you don’t call people and ask for their vote, that’s a major impact on a candidacy.”

But Kelliher says she can reach delegates on evenings and weekends, adding that the perception of a legislature that runs overtime every night is out of date, with only three late-night sessions last year.

More than that, Kelliher applies her aim to “stay focused on what’s best for Minnesota” to both her Speaker job and her gubernatorial candidacy. “Those things are linked,” she says.

Long says Kelliher, whom she supports for governor, is conscientious enough to handle both tasks. The two have numerous ties. Long was the first woman to serve as Speaker of the Minnesota House, in 1992–93; Kelliher is the second, serving since 2007. Kelliher succeeded Long in 1999 as representative of Minneapolis’ District 60A. Long had her own competing responsibilities in 1998, her last year in office, when as chair of the House tax committee she sought (unsuccessfully) the DFL endorsement for secretary of state.

All in

Kelliher is betting it all on her bid to replace retiring Republican Tim Pawlenty in the governor’s mansion next year, pledging not to run for re-election to her House seat and to abide by the DFL endorsement.

“She has the most to win and the most to lose,” says Schultz, who teaches law and political science at Hamline University. Kelliher’s candidacy would be boosted by legislative success, but that’s no easy trick. Schultz sees success for Kelliher as getting a bonding bill that’s bigger than Gov. Pawlenty proposed and resolving the state budget deficit without cutting education or health care further — all in good time and without a bloody battle. Gridlock, much easier to come by, hurts her chances.

A problem, in Long’s view: The DFL endorsement will come early this year — at a state party convention pushed up to April 23-25 — before the constitutional deadline to end the legislative session on May 17.

Little progress or disappointing deals at a legislature that’s still in session at convention time could look bad to delegates and take a toll on Kelliher. One way around that would be to delay tough legislative decisions until after the convention — “a risky scenario,” says Schultz, “but then all scenarios are risky for her.” Indeed, he says, state GOP leaders could be the ones to profit from delay, following their national-party leaders’ example.

Kelliher offered no guess as to whether the session might end earlier than May 17, but pointed out that DFLers intend to get the session off to an early start with action on jobs and the economy. The start of the session is another busy time: Precinct caucuses are set for Feb. 2, while the state legislature convenes Feb. 4. Kelliher says her campaign has been focused on preparing for the caucuses from the start and she expects to do well.

So she’ll be able to do an adequate job as both Speaker and gubernatorial candidate? Better than that — she says she plans on “excelling at both.”

Needs and ambitions

There are other candidates whose day jobs complicate life on the campaign trail — Kelliher names Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, a DFL rival, for one — but being House Speaker is a special, high-profile position, says Schultz, with the benefits and burdens of being seen as the leader of the legislature, a symbol of its successes or failures.

Speakers haven’t often run for governor, but other legislative leaders have (not including GOP state Rep. Marty Seifert, who stepped down as minority leader last year for his guv run). ”It’s been done,” says Tim Penny, a 2002 Independence Party gubernatorial hopeful, recalling that two of his opponents, Pawlenty and DFLer Roger Moe, were at the time majority leaders in the state House and Senate, respectively.

But in Penny’s judgement, his opponents in that race let politics take precedence over governing. “They didn’t work with [IP Gov. Jesse] Ventura to solve the state’s budget problems, he says: “Minnesota’s needs were not met because their political ambitions overruled them.”

Kelliher is confident she can work with Pawlenty, saying they’ve always had a “fine working relationship [though they] differ drastically on the direction of the state.” Long concurs: “She isn’t necessarily out there swinging at him.”

Will Kelliher pull her punches on Pawlenty’s frequent out-of-state travel in the service of a prospective presidential bid, considering she’s running for higher office too? The state boundaries make all the difference, Kelliher says — Pawlenty’s national ambitions aren’t going to take him for a simple trip “down to a cafe in St. Peter,” as her gubernatorial ambitions might.

A speaker running for governor, says Schultz, could decide to shine as a leader in front of cameras at the expense of necessary backstage negotiating. But that seems likely hazard for her, as Schultz sees, than the simple problem of limited time on her part, with the result that “something gives way, even if inadvertent.”

Elsewhere in Minnesota news this morning …

ST. PAUL: Governor seeks high-court reversal. Tim Pawlenty asked the state Supreme Court to reinstate his unallotment of a nutrition program pronto, then he hit the trail for Texas. [Political Pulse; Hot Dish Politics]

ST. PAUL: “The goof.” The DFL Party took responsibility for it before the state campaign-finance board, whose decision about whether House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher broke campaign laws is due today. [Star Tribune]

RED WING: Council bristles at mayor’s jokes. A video surfaced of Mayor John Howe at a GOP event dissing city council members and public works staff. [Red Wing Republican Eagle]

ROCHESTER: False Amber Alert hits Iraq. Word of a child abduction goes viral on social media, in a second wave no truer than the first. [Rochester Post-Bulletin]

MINNEAPOLIS: “Ability to be and articulate on current affairs.” If you know what that means, WCCO-AM wants you for its 1–3 p.m. slot. [Braublog]

INTERNATIONAL FALLS: Wasn’t “Daily Journal” redundant anyway? The newspaper goes twice-weekly as the “Journal,” but photos of guys in plaid shirts putting satellite dishes on their Vikings-themed ice houses will still appear daily, online. [International Falls Daily Journal]

Photo: MNHS.org

The Minnesota Universal Health Care Coalition released a questionnaire on Monday polling candidates for governor on their stance on single-payer health care (pdf). All DFLers and one Republican responded. The majority support a single-payer health plan in Minnesota.

The survey asked, “As governor would you sign the Minnesota Health Care Act if it passed in the Legislature?” The Minnesota Health Care Act would create a single-payer health care system in the state.

Only Republican Pat Anderson and DFLer Steve Kelley said they wouldn’t sign the bill. DFLers Tom Bakk, Mark Dayton, Matt Entenza, Susan Gaertner, Margaret Anderson Kelliher, John Marty, Tom Rukavina, RT Rybak, and Paul Thissen all said they would sign such a bill.

The survey also solicited responses from the candidates on how they foresee fixing the health care system if they are elected governor. Here’s a sampling of those responses:

Mark Dayton:

Currently, there is a significant difference in access to health care between rural and urban Minnesota. Rural Minnesota is home to 13% of the state’s population but just 5% of all doctors. This gap creates shameful inequality and needs to be fixed.

Tom Bakk:

Changing both the way physicians are reimbursed and the current pricing mechanisms of drugs would be good steps in the right direction toward removing inefficiencies from our health care system.

Pat Anderson:

Essentially less government, not more government is the route to expanding access, increasing quality and lowering costs of health care – recognizing that there are always tradeoffs among those characteristics.

Margaret Anderson Kelliher:

Minnesota can and should be the healthiest state in the country, and that starts with preventative care. As Governor, I will support funding for our public health system that focuses on providing information that keeps Minnesotans healthy.

Tom Rukavina:

If we can’t pass a full single payer health plan right off the bat, I will work towards opening the state health plan to people without insurance because Minnesotans are entitled to health care coverage that’s as good as what their Governor has.

Paul Thissen:

We need a comprehensive approach that tackles expanded access, improved quality, reduced cost increases and creating healthy communities in the broadest sense. We need to move away from an employer-dependent health care system, eliminate denials for preexisting conditions and, above all, return decision-making in health care back to the patient and medical provider.

RT Rybak:

[W]e need national health care reform. It is becoming increasingly clear that national health insurance reform will not be perfect, but it will advance some important goals: that people never lose access to health care if they move, change their job or get sick; that people with pre-existing conditions can get affordable coverage; that young adults can stay their parent’s insurance plan; and that health insurance costs come down.

John Marty:

The solution to this problem is to develop a health care system that works. This is what I have been working on. The Minnesota Health Plan (MHP) is designed to address the health needs of people, keeping them healthy so they need less medical care, and delivering the health care in a rational, efficient, cost-effective manner.

Steve Kelley:

Our moral obligation is to make sure that every Minnesotan has access to affordable, quality care. Minnesota can build on the federal plan using state savings to ensure all of us are covered. Universal coverage is attainable in Minnesota in conjunction with (not opposition to) federal plans.

Susan Gaertner:

As governor I will fight for a system of universal coverage based on public/private partnership that recognizes our changing workforce, ensures Minnesotans have a choice in coverage, and is financed in a way that works for both businesses and individuals of all income levels.

ST. PAUL: Public-employees union knows what to cut: political appointees’ jobs. [Workday Minnesota]

STATE CAPITOL: Budget talks. Today is the day Gov. Pawlenty agreed to meet with DFL leaders on the state budget. [Associated Press]

STATEWIDE: Don’t run, Norm. Former Minnesota GOP Party Chair Ron Eibensteiner says Norm Coleman should butt out of the race to replace Pawlenty. [Star Tribune]

ST. CLOUD: It’s between him and his god. The man who posted anti-Muslim cartoons outside a mosque and a Somali-owned store won’t face charges. [St. Cloud Times]

MINNEAPOLIS AND DELANO: More candidates say what they got. Gubernatorial hopefuls Paul Thissen and Tom Emmer raised $370,000 and $115,000, respectively, last year. [Politics in Minnesota]

MINNEAPOLIS: House speaker raised $254,000 in 2009. Margaret Anderson Kelliher still faces a hearing Tuesday on charges she violated campaign-finance laws. [Polinaut]

Stephanie Schriock

Franken for Senate campaign manager Stephanie Schriock is headed to the top of the EMILY’s List organization with the exit of founder and president Ellen Malcolm. Schriock has Minnesota links beyond steering Al Franken to the U.S. Senate: She was born and attended college in Mankato.

It’s a changing of the guard at EMILY’s List, which is marking a quarter-century of helping pro-choice women get elected across the country. Schriock is 36.

In Minnesota, House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (for governor) and state Sen. Tarryl Clark (for the congressional seat held by Michele Bachmann) are recent recipients of EMILY’s List support.

Calling herself “an outsider with a reputation as a straight-shooting moderate,” Gaertner said:

This doesn’t mean that I have given up on anyone in the DFL. Like other candidates who have stated their intention to run in a primary, I respect the party process and will continue to work to gain the support of delegates to the DFL convention. I will be working hard, however, to gain the support of the many loyal DFL voters who don’t always get engaged in the caucus and convention process.

Despite her long time in the trenches, Gaertner isn’t ranked as a leading candidate for endorsement among the nearly dozen DFLers now seeking the post Tim Pawlenty will vacate a year from now.

Last month EMILY’s List announced funding for the only other woman in the Democratic field, House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, leading Gaertner to issue a press release explaining why being passed over by the pro-choice women-candidate organization wasn’t that big a deal.

Kelliher’s donations came over four months, Rukavina’s in five.

But in a statement, Rukavina saw victory in the numbers:

Hey, I’ve nearly matched her. I’m not the powerful House Speaker or the powerful Tax Committee Chair, but I’m a powerful little candidate with a refreshingly honest approach with people. That’s why I am going to win.

Rukavina chairs a committee with a less wieldy name: the Higher Education and Workforce Development Finance and Policy Division.

Rukavina set off an uproar last month when he complained that Kelliher was getting special treatment from the state DFL, which was taking donations earmarked for Kelliher’s purchase of party data. The state Campaign Finance Board hears a complaint in the matter this month.