If state Rep. Erik Paulsen loses his race to replace retiring 3rd District U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, it will be the second straight election cycle in which a former staffer fails to succeed the veteran Minnesota congressman he served, despite his mentor’s endorsement. Coattails that once withstood even party-endorsement snubs now appear too tattered to pull proteges into office.

Paulsen worked as Ramstad’s state director after a stint as his legislative assistant in Washington, D.C. His current congressional run has been endorsed by Ramstad, a Paulsen campaign co-chair who polls show remains widely popular among voters. Yet the same polls show Paulsen could well lose the election.

In 2006 it was retiring U.S. Rep. Martin Sabo who endorsed a former staffer to succeed him. But during Sabo’s last months in office, Mike Erlandson lost first a bruising DFL Party endorsement battle and then a punishing primary contest to state Rep. Keith Ellison (who went on to win Sabo’s seat in the general election).

It used to be that men who had been aides to members of Minnesota’s congressional delegation could hope to convert heir-apparent status into successful ascents to their bosses’ offices — even if it took a primary challenge. Jim Oberstar served as an aide to U.S. Rep. John Blatnik for 12 years until Blatnik’s retirement in 1974, when Oberstar succeeded his mentor in Congress, despite losing the DFL endorsement to state Rep. Tony Perpich before primary and general election victories.

Ramstad himself survived a 1990 party endorsement fight for his own succession to the U.S. House seat of his mentor and employer, U.S. Rep. Bill Frenzel. To make the changing of the guard even more seamless, Ramstad adopted Frenzel’s orange-and-black lawn signs, as Paulsen has likewise done for his current run.

Ramstad, who worked in 1978 as Frenzel’s assistant campaign manager (and as staff for others in Congress), delivered statements from himself and Frenzel at a pro-Paulsen press conference this week. But color consistency and would-be predecessor support may no longer be enough, if the time for such easy torch-passings has indeed passed.