With just over 14 months remaining before the Iowa Caucus, National Journal’s The Hotline has released its Presidential Power Rankings Tuesday morning, assessing the viability of 15 Republicans who might mount bids to become their party’s representative in the race against President Barack Obama.

The list ranks Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty as the second leading contender, far above his placement in most early 2012 opinion polls. Hotline cites his “executive experience and conservative credentials,” as reasons to believe Pawlenty is the real deal, but wonders if the stereotype of Minnesota nice might be true in this case, harming his ability to appear aggressive enough to run an effective presidential primary campaign.

The Hotline breaks the potential candidates down into four tiers that, rather than revealing the strength of each candidate, indicate what sections of the Republican base Hotline believes will play the most prominent role in the selecting the nominee.

The publication essentially dismisses the 2010 uprising of the tea party movement as a force in Republican primaries, with “The Tea Party Tier” at the bottom of the list. Hotline gives most weight to the traditional-style candidates, known as “The A-List Tier.”

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney sits atop this pack, followed by Pawlenty, U.S. Sen. John Thune (N.D.) and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour. In explaining its high rating of Romney, Hotline points to his strengths in context of previous primary elections:

The GOP has a history of nominating the person who has stood in line, and after finishing second behind John McCain in 2008, Romney is now that person. He’s got the necessary infrastructure, fundraising ability, and intangibles to be the undisputed front-runner, but how convincingly he answers nagging questions about his individual mandate in Commonwealth Care will determine how long he keeps the top spot.

That last point is not just a distraction Romney can brush off on the campaign trail. His passage of health-care reform during his tenure in Massachusetts has already become a lightning rod for his potential opponents. The legislation is remarkably similar to the Affordable Care Act passed by Congress in 2010, with the individual mandate especially toxic among today’s Republican base voters.

On Fox News last night, Texas Gov. Rick Perry — himself ranked 11th on Hotline’s list — said that Romney would need to repudiate the Massachusetts plan if he is going to enter the 2012 field. And President Obama — likely viewing Romney as one of his greatest threats toward reelection for a second term — has frequently targeted Romney in public remarks on the health-care reform bill as a way of defusing his vulnerability in a Republican primary.

Similar problems face the remaining A-Tier candidates in Hotline’s list. Thune voted for the Troubled Asset Relief Program in 2008,  a decision Hotline says Thune has “an explanation for which he’s already rehearsing.” But TARP is up there alongside health care in the conservative base’s litmus test for vetting candidates. Support for the banking bill toppled Republican Sen. Bob Bennett of Utah during his primary and has drawn conservatives’ ire for numerous other Republicans. And few politicians carry the establishment label quite like Barbour, a former lobbyist and chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Though they’re termed the “The Fox News Tier,” the second class of candidates in Hotline’s rankings really represent the standard bearers of the tea party movement. Ranking from fourth to eighth are former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Indiana Rep. Mike Pence.

While Hotline ranks its first four candidates primarily on their similarities to past primary winners, everyone in the second tier is described in the terms that truly matter in running primary campaigns: the way voters receive them. Huckabee is a “charismatic man in the field.” Gingrich is “greeted like a rock star at every GOP rally he attends.” They note but do not give much weight to Pence’s victory in the Value Voters Summit straw poll, a key indication that the Indiana representative draws significant support from an important element of the Republican base.

As the name for this tier implies, all four are major figures appear regularly on Fox News, which has become one of the prime avenues for Republicans to reach the base. And though many tea party favorites such as Christine O’Donnell and Ken Buck ended up losing their general election campaigns, one of the main lessons of the 2010 cycle was the outsized power held by conservative activists in Republican primaries, a role likely to continue during the presidential nomination selection process. Increased enthusiasm for a candidate in the grassroots leads to excessive media coverage (see the endless discussion for any of Sarah Palin’s endorsements) and significant infusions of campaign funds (tea party favorite Sharron Angle’s $21 million haul).

As Slate’s Dave Weigel noted today, Romney may perform well in the early primary polls, but he largely serves as a placeholder, or traditional candidate, with significantly lower enthusiasm and loyalty than the candidates popular among the party’s base. The level of support for him or Pawlenty will likely vary significantly between now and February 2012, but the die-hard supporters of Sarah Palin are unlikely to waver in their allegiance.

With over a year to go until the first actual election in the nomination process, there is still plenty of time for political dynamics to shift. At this point 14 months ago, the tea party was still a nascent concept with little organizational power. But the current direction of political dynamics after the 2010 elections indicate that these voters will play a prominent role in selecting the Republicans’ 2012 candidate.

Read Hotline’s post for their rankings of candidates 9-15 and a description of each candidates strengths and weaknesses.

Reps. Walz and McCollum

National Journal has released its ranking of Congress “members at the far ends and the ideological center of the House of Representatives” — and at the far end only one Minnesotan makes the cut. Surprise: it’s not Michele Bachmann.

Among the “most liberal” congressional representatives, based on 2009 House votes, is Rep. Betty McCollum, who is tied with California Democrats Howard Berman and Doris Matsui and Maryland’s John Sarbanes at 403rd most liberal with a composite score of 90.5. Last year, McCollum was tied for the title of most liberal of all congressional members. No Minnesotans make the “most conservative” list (last year, Rep. Bachmann was ranked 36th most conservative, while this year she doesn’t make the list).

But two Minnesota Democrats are ranked among “The Centrists” in the House. Rep. Collin Peterson scored a composite of 45.2 percent (meaning his votes show he’s slightly to the conservative side of the center), while Rep. Tim Walz’s 63.8 score puts him a tad more liberal than the center (the rankings last year put Walz at 175th most liberal, while this year he’s 166th).

The Walz campaign reacted to the rankings, noting in a statement that the congressman has “secur[ed] his position as a moderate amongst his colleagues.”

“As 2010 moves along, opponents on the far right-wing will attempt to distort his record in countless ways,” said Walz’s campaign manager, Richard Carlbom. “The National Journal rankings show just how well he is doing at ensuring southern Minnesota has a moderate, independent voice in Congress.”

Indeed, challengers for Walz’s First Congressional District seat have characterized him as anything but moderate. GOPer Allen Quist, for instance, famously called Walz a “radical,” stating his belief that defeating terrorism is “not the big battle. The big battle is in D.C. with the radicals.” The GOP’s James Hagedorn uses the word “socialism” in discussing Walz, calling the congressman a “thoughtless liberal.”

On the Senate side, rankings are essentially what you’d expect: Out of 100 senators, Democrat Amy Klobuchar ranked 37th most liberal, while former Sen. Norm Coleman is listed as 38th most conservative (59th most liberal).

McCollum can’t be all that liberal; back in January, she was nominated for the supply-side Club for Growth’s spoof big-government award, the “Comrade of the Month,” but lost out to Democratic Rep. Barney Frank, who, tying with Ellison, didn’t even crack the top 10 in National Journal’s report.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s prospects in the veep sweepstakes have tumbled in recent months among Republican pooh-bahs, according to a new poll conducted by the National Journal. The survey of more than 100 Beltway insiders tapped Mitt Romney as the prohibitive favorite, with support from 32 percent of those polled. Former Office of Management and Budget director Rob Portman was a distant second at 14 percent. Pawlenty limped into third with support from 9 percent of respondents. What’s notable is that T-Paw led all comers in the last such poll, conducted in February, garnering 15 percent of the field. Among the anonymous quotes collected from respondents is this dubious assertion about Pawlenty: “Puts Minnesota in Mac’s column–no small feat.”

While surveys of the general public gaging VP candidate support undoubtedly shortchange Pawlenty’s prospects because of a lack of national name recognition, the same argument can’t made with this group of GOP heavies. Among those polled: former Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman, uber-pundit Mary Matalin, and top McCain adviser Charlie Black.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton tops the pack with support from 17 percent of voters, while Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius runs second with 12-percent support. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, occasionally mentioned as a darkhorse candidate on the Democratic side, received no votes.

More: See previous MinMon VP or not VP posts about Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s vice-presidential prospects.

This probably means that the Walz-Gutknecht race will not stop its upward climb at #39.

Interestingly enough, looking at the top 50 races on the National Journal website, 39 are in current Republican-held districts, while 11 are in Democratic districts. Assuming half in each change hands, conservatively 19 Republican districts will go Democrat and 5 Democrat districts will go Republican, for a net gain of 14 seats for the Democrats among the top 50. Given that the likelihood of change in the remaining seats is very low, this would translate to a net 15-seat gain for the Democrats in the fall election.

Currently in the House of Representatives there are 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats, 1 Independent and 2 vacancies (House Clerk). A change of 14 would mean 218 Republicans and 216 Democrats, assuming the vacancies split and the independent, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, remains in office, which seems likely.

(Correction from john s.: “Sanders won’t be back in the House; he’s running for Senate….” The Vermont House race is now neck and neck and is #27 on the National Journal’s list. According to the above formula, the result of this race yields a 219-216 differential in the House if the Republican wins, 218-217 if the Democrat wins.)

An interesting election coming up in November? As we say in Minnesota, “You betcha!”