Photo: WDCpix.com

In a matchup between President Barack Obama and Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Obama would win by ten points, according to a new St. Cloud State University poll (pdf) released Tuesday. When asked who they would vote for in 2012, 49 percent of Minnesotans surveyed said they’d support Obama, while 39.7 percent said they’d back Pawlenty.

The poll of 550 Minnesotans also found that among independents, when pushed, many are more likely to identify with the DFL (40.5 percent) than the Republican party (23.7 percent).

Just over half of Minnesotans (50.5 percent) gave President Obama a favorable rating in the poll. Gov. Tim Pawlenty didn’t fare as well, with only 48.5 percent rating his job performance as excellent or pretty good. Almost as many, 48.4 percent, rated Pawlenty’s performance as fair or poor.

The poll found that 50.3 percent of those surveyed say Obama is doing an excellent or pretty good job, but 47.4 percent rated the president’s performance as fair or poor.

Topping the list of the main issues facing the state are health care insurance at 19.6 percent, the budget deficit at 13.8 percent, education at 13.3 percent and unemployment at 12.8 percent.

Wedge issues barely registered with poll respondents with abortion at 0.8 percent, “family issues” at 0.2 percent, immigration at 0.8 percent and religious moral issues at 0.1 percent.

Overall, respondents said the state was heading in the wrong direction; 42.5 percent said the state is moving in the right direction and 43.8 said it was moving in the wrong direction. Nine percent said the state’s situation is neutral.

The poll doesn’t reveal its margin of error or polling methodology.

Photo: Ryan Bushby, Wikimedia Commons

A Gallup poll conducted at the beginning of October shows that more Americans support the legalization of marijuana than ever before — even if the majority still think it should be illegal.

Forty-four percent of Americans said they think marijuana should be legal, while 54 percent said it should stay illegal. The number who support legalization has doubled in the last 20 years, whereas in the late 1980s only 23 percent supporting legalization.

A majority of respondents living in the West said they would approve of marijuana being legal in their state (53 percent to 46 percent) while the Midwest residents showed the largest disapproval of having marijuana legal in their state with 64 percent rejecting it.

The poll asked, “How important do you feel it is to give people a choice of both a public plan administered by the federal government and a private plan for their health insurance?”

Seventy-two percent of Republicans, 71 percent of Independents and 86 percent of Democrats polled said they felt the choice of both was important. But, 46 percent of those polled also said they were concerned that health care reform would limit access to doctors.

When the respondents were read a description of President Obama’s health care reform plan, 51 percent said they supported it and 79 percent of those said they strongly favored it. Forty-three percent opposed Obama’s health care reform plan.

The poll also asked respondents if they had health insurance. Eighty-five percent said they currently had health insurance, with Republicans reporting the highest rates, 88 percent versus 85 percent for Democrats and Independents. Almost a third (31 percent) were already covered under “public options” such as Medicare, Medicaid or the military’s Tricare.

The SurveyUSA results are comparable to other polls asking similar questions.

A July 30 New York Times/CBS poll found that 66 percent support the public option as a choice alongside private insurance.

And a June poll by NBC and the Wall Street Journal that was worded identically to the SurveyUSA poll found 76 percent supporting a choice between a public and private option.

Photo: MnIndy

A new poll suggests Sen.-elect Al Franken would have trouble following President Barack Obama’s vault from a single Senate-election victory to the White House. Beyond that, it’s not clear why it matters that 44 percent of voters across the country have an unfavorable view of the Democrat or that 34 percent like him at least “somewhat.” According to the pollster, Rasmussen Reports, “It is fairly typical for individual legislators to have negative favorability ratings on a national basis.”

The 22 percent who aren’t sure what they think of Franken and the 40 percent who followed his election saga not very closely or not at all will get a chance to form an opinion in less than two weeks, when the Senate Judiciary Committee takes up the nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the U.S. Supreme Court. Senate leaders saved Franken a seat on the committee, where he’s sure to be under the national media microscope.

Rasmussen’s polls within Minnesota have provided interesting peeks at the progress of the battle between Franken and former Sen. Norm Coleman, both before and after Election Day. In late October, Rasmussen reported Coleman leading Franken by a four-point spread that was within the poll’s margin of error. Between two polls taken in December and March, the proportion of Minnesotans who thought Franken won increased by 16 points to a level reaching nearly half the voting population.

By mid-May, Rasmussen put the percentage who wanted Coleman to concede at 54 percent (other polls pegged it at 10 percentage point higher).

Whatever the number, this week they got their wish.

(Wikimedia commons)

A SurveyUSA/KSTP poll released this week shows a high level of support in Minnesota for the recognition of same-sex couples. Sixty-four percent of respondents said the state should offer same-sex marriage or civil unions. Only 34 percent said same-sex couples should have no legal relationship rights.

Specifically, 29 percent favored same-sex marriage and 35 percent supported civil unions. Democrats were more likely to support same-sex marriage (45 percent) while independents favored civil unions (42 percent). Republicans favored no rights (57 percent).

In addition, Minnesotans said they oppose a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, with only 44 percent supporting it and 52 percent in opposition.

Bills that would legalize same-sex marriage as well as civil unions were offered at the Minnesota Capitol this session, but died in committee.

In November, 58 percent of Minnesotans polled told SurveyUSA they approved of Pawlenty’s performance. That fell to 54 percent in December, to 53 percent in January, and in the most recent results from late February, to 48 percent. (See Survey USA’s table here.) At that rate, a smaller proportion of Minnesota voters will approve of Pawlenty this month than voted for him in 2006 (46.7 percent). And by the time SurveyUSA conducts its poll in April, the governor’s approval will fall below even the 44.4 percent he won by in 2002.

Smart Politics observes that Pawlenty’s February showing is still fifth-best among the 14 governors they research (h/t Polinaut). KSTP-TV, which pays for the polls, reported that Pawlenty found the January results encouraging for his re-election in 2010. Going on radio and TV might help — or he could try taking action that voters see as being in the best interest of the state. If he does that, his approval rating by the end of the current legislative session might not tank below his 2002 showing at the polls.

That 62 percent remains steady from January, which is a bit of an anomaly. From Smart Politics: “In Minnesota, however, approval of Obama’s performance fell by only 2 points during the past month – from 64 to 62 percent – the smallest drop for Obama in any of the 14 states polled by SurveyUSA.”

Obama had the support of Democrats (89 percent) and Independents (57 percent), while Republicans overwhelmingly opposed him with only 28 percent approval. The Twin Cities area showed the least support at 57 percent, with southern Minnesota showing overwhelming support at 75 percent. Western Minnesota and the northeast part of the state gave him 63 percent and 67 percent respectively.

Photo by Christian Guthier

As President Obama and the Minnesota Legislature both look at ways to reform health care, a new poll released by the Kaiser Family Foundation last week found that a majority of Americans are scrimping on health care to make ends meet. Some are skipping dental visits; others are cutting pills in half to stretch out prescriptions. A significant minority of respondents are going broke because they cannot pay their medical bills.

The poll found that 53 percent of American households have cut back on health care in the last year. Thirty-five percent used home remedies instead of seeing a doctor for illness, 34 percent skipped dental care, 27 percent put off medical care they needed, 21 percent skipped filling a prescription and 15 percent cut pills in half.

Thirteen percent said they used up all of their savings in order to pay off medical bills, and 12 percent said they had been contacted by a collection agency about medical bills.

The majority of Americans think major reform should be undertaken in the short term, although they differ based on party identification.

The partisan divide of opinion here also remains large: a substantial majority of Democrats (79 percent) say reform is more important than ever, while most Republicans (58 percent) say the nation cannot afford to tackle health care at this point. Independents tilt the balance by being in favor of shorter term reform, 57 percent to 37 percent who think the bad economy means reform should wait.

The Kaiser Family Foundation provides a comprehensive breakdown of the poll and analysis.

Fifty-nine percent of Americans surveyed said they wanted a national health insurance program to cover at least some health problems with 49 percent responding that the government should issue national health insurance to cover all health problems and 10 percent saying national health insurance should cover emergencies only. Less than a third, or 32 percent, thought that health insurance should be left to private insurance companies.

The poll contrasted with a similar 1979 poll which asked the same questions. In 1979, 48 percent of Americans thought health insurance was best left to private companies and only 28 percent said the government should issue national health insurance for all problems while 12 percent said it was a good idea for emergencies only.

Updated number-crunching after the jump.

Favorable and unfavorable opinions of Al Franken and Norm Coleman

in the Kos poll, 49 percent say they have a favorable opinion of Franken — 4 percent more than those with an unfavorable opinion. A favorable opinion of Norm Coleman is harder to find, being shared by only 41 percent of respondents. But what’s really stunning is Coleman’s negative number: 58 percent say they have unfavorable opinion of him.

Those results are markedly different from the other poll, in which both men’s approval percentages were below 40 percent but neither had unfavorable opinion rates above 45 percent. Variations in polling may explain some of the difference: the KSTP poll allows both “Neutral” and “No Opinion” responses, while Kos only allows “No Opinion.”  In the KSTP poll the two answer categories comprise a full 19 percent of the Coleman responses, but in the Kos poll only 1 percent have no opinion of Coleman.

Polls differ in respondents’ party affiliations

But the most significant difference between the two polls is in the distribution by party affiliation subgroups within their sample populations. In conducting the survey for the left-leaning Daily Kos, Research 2000 included far fewer (27 percent) voters who called themselves politically independent or “other,” and more who identify as Republican (33 percent) or Democrat (40 percent). SurveyUSA, whose polls generally and for KSTP-TV specifically have sometimes been accused of skewing right politically, included only 25 percent Republican and 33 percent Democratic voters — with a whopping 39 percent “independent.”

Perceived fairness of recount process

Sampling differences appear to play out in a question that both polls asked: Was the recount process fair, and if not, to which candidate was it unfair? The Research 2000-Daily Kos results show 63 percent think the recount was fair to both candidates, with only 17 percent finding the process “mostly unfair” to Coleman and 12 percent, unfair to Franken. In SurveyUSA’s poll, 31 percent saw the recount as unfair to Coleman, 3 percent unfair to Franken, and 56 percent fair to both.

Things really got squirrelly within the subgroups of each poll. The more heavily weighted SurveyUSA “independent” subgroup was twice as likely (28 percent) to see unfairness toward Coleman as their Recount 2000-Kos counterparts (14 percent). The dominant Democrats in the Recount 2000-Kos poll managed to find unfairness toward Franken in greater numbers (18 percent, compared to 5 percent in SurveyUSA’s). And SurveyUSA’s relatively scant pool of Republicans was far more inclined (68 percent) to see injury to the Republican candidate than those in equivalent subgroup of the Kos poll (32 percent). In fact, a majority of Kos’ Republicans (54 percent) saw the recount as fair to both candidates, a view shared by only 23 percent in SurveyUSA’s Republican pool.

Coleman court challenge

Both polls measured support for Coleman’s contesting of the recount results in court. The Daily Kos poll found 47 percent opposed and 34 percent in favor, with 19 percent not sure. SurveyUSA had 42 percent in favor and 49 percent opposed — a figure interpreted in news reports as meaning half of Minnesotans want Coleman to concede. SurveyUSA did ask flat out whether Coleman should concede, as the first of three supplied answers (all unlikely) to the question “What do you think should happen next?” Forty-four percent thought Coleman should quit; the other options were “Do the re-count again” (8 percent) and “Hold another Senate election altogether” (31 percent).

Who won, and who would you vote for today?

“Who do you think won the U.S. Senate race, Al Franken or Norm Coleman?” The response to that Research 2000-Kos question is: Franken, 46 percent; Coleman, 41 percent; and “Not Sure,” 13 percent.

It’s intriguing to compare that with the results on another Kos question: “If you could vote again for U.S. Senate would you vote for Al Franken the Democrat, Norm Coleman the Republican, or Dean Barkley, an Independent?” (Barkley should actually be termed not as “an Independent” but as “the candidate of the Independence Party” — a third party with major-party status in Minnesota.) Overall, 43 percent would vote for Franken, 40 percent for Coleman, and 15 percent for Barkley. An element of softness in Democratic voter support for Franken widely observed on Election Day is still perceptible: 83 percent of Democrats polled think Franken won, but only 77 percent would vote for him today.

It’s also intriguing to compare the Kos poll’s election re-run with another SurveyUSA-KSTP poll taken Dec. 7, which also asked, if the election were held again today, “who would you vote for?” The results then were much closer to the Election Day results: Coleman, 41 percent; Franken, 40 percent; Barkley 15 percent.

Margin of error

The Research 2000-Daily Kos poll surveyed 600 voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The SurveyUSA-KSTP poll surveyed 500 voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. The margin of error increases at the level of subgroups such as party identification.

Does any of this matter?

Minnesota’s Senate election remains unresolved. So are the polls taken since Nov. 4 really election polls? The crosstabs by gender, age and party affiliation and the questions the polls ask combine to conjure up the feeling of a late-campaign pulse-reading of the electorate, a tantalizing forecast of the coming result. Except, of course, those polled have already voted in this race and aren’t likely to vote again. The shifting opinions among the subgroups can matter only as much as they affect the outlooks of three judges, yet to be named, who will decide Coleman’s court challenge. And perhaps 98 or 99 U.S. senators who have the last word on who is seated and who as politicians are used to putting stock in polls.