Two polls show that the amendment might get defeated while two others show a slight lead for anti-gay marriage activists.

On Thursday, the St. Cloud State University Survey was released showing that 47 percent of Minnesotans thought the constitution should not be amended and 44 percent said it should. The difference is within the poll’s 5 percent margin of error, making the result a statistical tie.

The St. Cloud Times notes that the margin changes drastically depending on what type of phone the user answered: 48 percent of landline phone users supported the amendment compared to 39 percent of cell phone users.

A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll released on Wednesday found that 46 percent of registered voters support the amendment while 40 percent said they would vote against it. Interestingly, the poll also asked whether someone would not vote on the issue, which is considered a “no” vote in Minnesota. Ten percent said they did not plan to vote at all on the question bringing the total of opposition and under-vote to 50 percent, within the poll’s 4.3 percent margin of error making the question a statistical tie.

The landline versus mobile split was also present in the SurveyUSA poll. Only 34 percent of mobile users planned to vote for the amendment while 50 percent of landline users planned to vote for it.

The Star Tribune released its Minnesota poll on Tuesday showing that 48 percent of Minnesotans support the amendment, 43 percent opposed it and 8 percent are undecided. The results were within the poll’s margin of error, meaning that this poll as well was a statistical tie.

The result matches closely with what SurveyUSA found but completely opposite of the St. Cloud State University poll.

The one poll that was an outlier in this week was a poll by QEV Analytics commissioned by Minnesota for Marriage, the group advocating for the gay marriage ban. In that poll, 51 percent of voters said they would vote for the amendment and 40 percent would vote against it.

Minnesota for Marriage released the poll in response to the Star Tribune poll, which the group calls biased.

“The Star Tribune survey showing us with a five point lead substantially understates our true position. This is not surprising given the newspaper’s historic bias against conservative issues and candidates,” Minnesota for Marriage chair John Helmberger said in a statement. “We are releasing our own survey, which utilized the actual wording of the amendment question being presented to voters, to show that we enter the campaign in a very strong position.”

The QEV poll excluded media and political employees and their families from the poll. It asked, “Are you, or anyone in your household, employed with an advertising agency, newspaper, television or radio station, or political campaign?” Anyone who answered in the affirmative was excluded from the poll.

The poll also differed in that it heavily sampled older Minnesotans. Only 35 percent of the poll’s respondents were under age 50, while 60 percent were 50 years old and over.

QEV has been the pollster of choice for the National Organization for Marriage which is part of the Minnesota for Marriage coalition.

A survey released by Public Policy Polling on Thursday shows that Sen. Amy Klobuchar maintains a formidable lead going into the 2012 election cycle. She maintains a high favorability rating and would best any announced candidates and rumored candidates by large margins, including Minnesota’s presidential duo Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty. She’s also increased her lead since the last PPP poll in December.

Klobuchar leads Pawlenty in a hypothetical matchup by 13 points, 54 percent to 41 percent. Against Bachmann, Klobuchar leads 57 to 37 percent. Neither Bachmann nor Pawlenty has expressed an interest in Klobuchar’s seat.

Among candidates who have expressed an interest, Klobuchar would win handily if the election were held today. Against former attorney general candidate Chris Barden, Klobuchar would win 57 to 30 percent and against radio host and State Sen. Dave Thompson, Klobuchar would win 55 to 28 percent.

Dan Severson, the only announced candidate to challenge Klobuchar, would lose by the largest margin, 28 points (56 to 28 percent).

“The fact that Klobuchar earns 54-57% of the vote regardless of her opponent suggests her floor is probably not much lower than that,” PPP said in a release accompanying the poll. “Amy Klobuchar looks like a shoo-in at this point,” added Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling.

The poll also measured Pawlenty’s and Bachmann’s favorables. Fifty-three percent of Minnesotans viewed Pawlenty unfavorably and 40 percent favorably. Bachmann’s numbers were even worse with 33 percent having a favorable impression of the congresswoman, while 59 percent viewed her unfavorably.

A recent poll finds that a majority of Minnesotans want to vote on whether to put an amendment to ban gay marriage in the Minnesota Constitution, but the groups touting the survey are remaining mum about the poll’s details. The data has been used by testifiers in committees in support of banning gay marriage, by Republicans at Capitol press conferences and by interest groups to the media. It was commissioned by the Minnesota Family Council and the National Organization for Marriage — two groups that oppose relationship rights for same-sex couples — and was conducted by Lawrence Research, whose president is a Mormon organizer who worked to pass Prop 8 in California.

Neither the Minnesota Family Council nor the National Organization for Marriage responded to requests by the Minnesota Independent to see the polling data, and Lawrence Research said it could not release polling data that was purchased by an outside group.

Lawrence Research is run by Gary Lawrence, a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints and the grassroots director of Project Marriage, a group that helped halt gay marriage in California’s contentious Prop 8 initiative campaign.

According to State of California records, Lawrence research was paid $528,877.35 from gay marriage opponents in 2007 and 2008.

MFC/NOM’s poll, conducted by Lawrence in January of 600 registered voters, found that 74 percent “believe the people, not the legislature, should decide the definition of marriage.” It also showed that 56 percent of voters thought that only the heterosexual marriages should be recognized in Minnesota. Forty-two percent disagreed with that.

MFC/NOM and Lawrence Research teamed up in 2010 in a poll showing that voters who wanted a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage picked Republican candidate Tom Emmer. That poll asked if marriage “should be redefined to be any two people regardless of gender.”

Similar polls have been done in other states, and with similar results to the recent one in Minnesota. The Maryland General Assembly earlier this year moved legislation that would legalize same-sex marriage in that state. The poll found that 54 percent opposed same-sex marriage, 37 percent approved and 78 percent wanted Maryland voters to vote on the issue directly.

Because the Legislature was moving a controversial bill, a number of polls were conducted this winter and spring. In January, Annapolis-based research company Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies found that 51 percent of Marylanders wanted gay marriage to be legal. Another poll taken in January by Grove Insight found that 49 percent favored marriage equality and 41 percent were against it.

The story is similar in Minnesota.

A Hubert H. Humphrey Institute poll in October of last year showed that 49 percent of Minnesotans opposed same-sex marriage compared to 41 percent who supported it. In that poll, 64 percent of Minnesotans said they would support civil unions for gay and lesbian couples. The poll shows most Minnesotans were opposed to gay marriage by 49-41 percent, but 64 percent of Minnesotans across the categories favor civil unions for same-sex couples, which grant many of the same rights as marriage.

A 2009 Star Tribune poll found that only 33 percent of Minnesotans wanted a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, 35 percent said leave it to the courts, and 25 percent backed legalizing same-sex marriage.

MPR/Pioneer Press did a poll in 2006 that is more in line with the results of the MFC/NOM poll. At the time, 54 percent of respondents opposed legalizing same-sex marriage while 29 percent said they supported legalizing it.

Public Policy Polling released results of a survey on Monday showing that Republicans overwhelmingly support Rep. Michele Bachmann to take on Sen. Amy Klobuchar in 2012. Of eight theoretical Klobuchar opponents, Bachmann got the top spot with 36 percent of Republicans. Bachmann’s support came mainly from conservative GOPers. A poll by PPP last week showed Klobuchar would beat Bachmann by 54 to 39 percent.

Bachmann led the pack of eight theoretical Republican candidates at 36 percent with Gov. Tim Pawlenty getting 20 percent followed by Norm Colemen at 14 percent. Rounding out the pack was Rep.-elect Chip Cravaack at 7 percent, Tom Emmer at 6 percent, Rep. John Kline at 5 percent, state Rep. Laura Brod at 4 percent and Erik Paulsen at 2 percent.

The vast majority of the those sampled identified as conservative — 74 percent — with only 25 percent identifying as moderate and 1 percent as liberal. 42 percent of conservatives picked Bachmann. The next highest pick was Pawlenty with 19 percent. Moderates liked Pawlenty, however, at 26 percent.

The poll’s takeaway message: Minnesota Republicans are conservative and they like Bachmann a lot. But, PPP also says that Bachmann would have a harder time beating Klobuchar than other Republicans. Last week’s poll showed Klobuchar beating Pawlenty 53 to 43 percent, Coleman 54 to 40 percent, and Paulsen 52 to 34 percent. But, Klobuchar beats Bachmann by a larger margin, 56 to 39 percent.

Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling, said, “In the Senate race, Amy Klobuchar should be praying that the GOP rallies behind Michele Bachmann.”

A new poll released Thursday by Public Policy Polling suggests that Vikings owner Ziggy Wilf would have a tough time getting public money for a new stadium. A majority of Minnesotans oppose a taxpayer-funded stadium for the team. Opponents of such funding come from across the political spectrum with a majority of DFLers, moderates and Republicans saying they disapprove of such a plan. When asked whether they’d support a stadium paid for with public gambling revenues, however, a plurality said that would be acceptable.

During a particularly rough season for the team and with the lease on the Metrodome expiring, rumors continue to swirl that Vikings owner Wilf will move the team to Los Angeles if he doesn’t get a sweet government deal for a new facility.

In the PPP survey, only 28 percent said they supported that happening with public funds; 61 percent say they oppose taxpayer money going to a Vikings stadium. Sixty-one percent of Democrats, 62 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independents opposed public financing.

The survey also asked, “If the choice was between the Vikings moving to California or Minnesota taxpayers building a new stadium for them, which would you prefer?”

Just under half — 49 percent — said they’d rather the Vikings leave than pay for a stadium with public money. Only 35 percent said the government should provide funds to keep the team in Minnesota.

But nearly two-theirds of voters — 63 percent — approve of using expanded gambling to pay for a new stadium, while 24 percent oppose the idea. Again, a similar number of Democratic, Republican and independent voters agreed.

Here’s the full survey with crosstabs:

PPP_Release_MN_1209

If the 2012 election were held last weekend, President Obama would’ve easily won Minnesota, according to a Public Policy Polling survey released Wednesday. The poll of 949 Minnesotans was conducted Dec. 4 and 5 and found that Mitt Romney was the only potential Republican challenger that could keep Obama below 50 percent. Romney also beat out Gov. Tim Pawlenty in his own state for the best showing against Obama.

“Minnesota went only narrowly Democratic in 2000 and 2004 before Obama broke the state open in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling in a statement. “It looks like 2012 is more likely to be a repeat of 2008 than a return to the competitiveness of earlier in the decade.”

The poll found that Obama had a net positive approval rating although he is under 50 percent: 49 percent of those surveyed approve of Obama while 46 percent disapprove. Pawlenty had a high disapproval rating from Minnesotans with 53 percent disapproving of his job performance and only 43 percent approving.

In matchups, Obama led Romney 47 to 42 percent, Pawlenty 51 to 43 percent, Mike Huckabee 50 to 40 percent, Newt Gingrich 51 to 38 and Sarah Palin 54 to 36.

Here’s the full release and crosstabs from PPP:

PPP_Release_MN_12081023-1

Gov. Tim Pawlenty rated fifth among likely Republican primary voters, according to a Rasmussen poll released on Thursday. Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich placed in the top four, followed by Pawlenty, who has lagged in virtually every professional poll and straw poll over the last year. Pawlenty has said his decision on a presidential run will be made this spring.

In the poll, Romney claimed the top spot with 20 percent; Huckabee and Palin were tied for a close second, at 19 percent. Gingrich got 13 percent and Pawlenty 6 percent. Pawlenty bested two other contenders: Ron Paul earned 5 percent and Mitch Daniels 3 percent.

A McClatchy poll in September found similar results: Pawlenty in fifth place with 6 percent.

And earlier this year, a Public Policy Polling poll of GOP contenders in New Hampshire showed Pawlenty in sixth place with 5 percent. A similar survey in July also had Pawlenty in sixth, but with only 3 percent.

A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll released Friday evening has Rep. James Oberstar ahead by just 1 percent over Republican challenger Chip Cravaack: Oberstar took 47 percent to Cravaack’s 46 percent, with 7 percent undecided. Oberstar’s communications director John Schadl criticized the poll: “Survey USA’s methods generally swing anywhere from two to six additional points to Republican candidates in a given race,” he said. A two- to six-point range is far from the 35 points Oberstar won by two years ago.

Cravaack and Oberstar held on to their own parties in the poll, but independents broke for Cravaack 56 percent compared to Oberstar’s 32 percent. The margin of error is 3.9 percent.

“Ultimately, voter turnout will determine the outcome of this election,” Schadl said in a statement. “Last night over 1,000 people turned out for the DFL rally on the Iron Range. We have more than 1,000 volunteers across the District working for Jim. We are going to win this and Jim Oberstar is going to continue to serve as Minnesota’s Eighth District Congressman.”

Democrats buoyed by a string of polls showing Mark Dayton pulling ahead by a healthy margin got a sobering report Thursday night: A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows Dayton up by 1 point over Republican Tom Emmer in the race for governor. Independence party candidate Tom Horner got 13 percent, with 6 percent undecided. It’s the first SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota to include cell phone users.

The poll found that both Dayton and Emmer had strong support from their bases with 78 percent of DFLers for Dayton and 76 percent of Republicans for Emmer. Independents liked Emmer and Dayton evenly at 37 percent. Self-described moderates broke for Dayton by a 2-to-1 margin, and tea partiers liked Emmer at 25 to 1. Emmer led among men and voters under 50. Dayton took women and voters over 50. Dayton had more support in the Twin Cities and Iron Range while Emmer out-polled him elsewhere.

“Impossible to say who has the late advantage in the Minnesota Governor’s race, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-election tracking poll for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis,” the pollster says. “DFL candidate Mark Dayton has never trailed, but neither in 3 polls has he led by more than 5 points.”

On cell-phone-only voters, “CPO respondents account for 15% of likely voters. Unlike the findings in some academic research, and unlike SurveyUSA data in California, CPO respondents in Minnesota are not politically different than respondents interviewed on their home phones.”

A MPR/HHH poll released on Thursday showed Dayton up by 12, a St. Cloud State University poll on Tuesday had him up by 10 points, and a Star Tribune poll had him up by 7 percent this weekend.

A poll by St. Cloud State University has DFLer Mark Dayton leading Republican Tom Emmer 37 to 27 percent in the governor’s race — a margin three points higher than that registered in this weekend’s Star Tribune poll. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is at 18 percent, his best showing among recent polls. According to the poll, 15 percent of respondents are undecided.

When the poll teased out likely voters, the margin remained roughly the same: Dayton gets 40 percent, Emmer 30 percent and Horner 19 percent. The poll sampled 628 people using both landline and mobile phones, and has a margin of error of 5 percent.

The polls authors said that Dayton leads in most demographic categories.

Eight out of 10 Democrats are supporting Dayton while 7 out of 10 Republicans are supporting Emmer. Horner is taking a number of Republicans. Twenty-three percent of Republican identified voters picked Horner.

Dayton leads in all age groups except ages 45 to 54, he leads in all economic strata, among both men and women, and has a strong showing in the Twin Cities metro and Greater Minnesota.

Full results and methodology can be viewed at the survey website.