The hail of criticism that followed her accusations on MSNBC’s “Hardball” of anti-Americanism in Congress came to be seen by “some voters,” according to Smart Politics’ Eric Ostermeier,

… as an attack on the 6th District itself (and certainly on those residents who had voted her into office in 2006). Combine that with the fact that Bachmann’s comments on Hardball probably were not seen as that controversial to many 6th CD voters, and one has a backlash in the making. … Minnesotans in the the 6th District responded in kind by holding back the Democratic wave just enough to successfully defend Bachmann’s seat, and, perhaps, their own pride.

Ostermeier backs up his contention of a Democratic drift in the district with tables of election stats, leading to his conclusion that “Bachmann deserves some credit for extending her political half-life.” But discussion of the role of the Independence Party’s Bob Anderson, who in 2008 drew 10 percent of the votes in an election that saw Bachmann beat Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg by a margin of 3 percent, is nowhere to be found. Likewise for evidence to back up the “fact” that Minnesotans voted Bachmann back into office as an expression of pride. Nevertheless, Ostermeier has this bracing warning for those who would prefer a world where Bachmann doesn’t represent Minnesotans in Congress:

As such, despite the fact that many on the left go to bed at night praying Bachmann’s recent comments on KTLX regarding the country “running out of rich people” will be the comment that leads to her undoing, they are going to be sorely disappointed. Bachmann has shown she can not only dust herself off the ground, but she can so do immaculately, even in the face of a Democratic windstorm.

The occasion for Smart Politics’ analysis and musings is the inclusion of Minnesota’s 6th District yesterday in the Rothenberg Political Report’s first rating of the 2010 U.S. House races. Bachmann joins 3rd District U.S. Rep. Erik Paulsen among eight Republican incumbents whose chances at re-election the report finds favorable at this early date, among races that Ostermeier observes are the most “likely Democratic targets” nationally.

UPDATE: Bachmann liked the Smart Politics post so much, she pointed her “BachmannforMN6” Twitter followers to it with her first tweet on that account since November.

U.S. Capitol (Wikipedia)

Last Wednesday, Democratic  Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen introduced twin bills that would make it more difficult for copper thieves to sell their loot. The bipartisan Secondary Metal Theft Prevention Act of 2009, according to a Klobuchar press release, “contains a ‘Do Not Buy’ provision which bans scrap metal dealers from buying specific items unless sellers establish, by written documentation, that they are authorized to sell the secondary metal in question.” [H.R. 1006, S. 418]

Over the past eight years, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) has “almost completely abrogated the ban on imported assault rifles,” which Democratic Rep. Betty McCollum said shoot five bullets in as many seconds. Last week, McCollum was among 54 House members — all Democrats, except for Reps. Michael Castle of Rhode Island and Christopher Smith of New Jersey — to sign a letter [pdf] to President Obama urging him to direct the ATF to “act in accordance with the 1968 Gun Control Act and return to enforcing the ban on the import of all assault weapons.” Such weapons are “being smuggled in bulk” across the border where they’re being used in violence by narco-traffickers in Mexico. The letter cites statistics by Mexico’s attorney general that organized-crime–related homicides doubled over the last two years — from 2,700 in 2007 to 5,700 in 2008.

Al Franken, who in two campaign press releases today is referred to as Sen.-elect Franken, faces long odds in getting Senate Republicans to bestow that term upon him anytime soon. Politico reports that Republicans, having seen how the Obama administration got its way on the stimulus package, is doing all it can to prevent Franken from becoming the Senate’s 59th Democrat. Several GOPers — including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio),  as well as Sens. Mike Crapo of Idaho, Johnny Isakson of Georgia and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee — have given the maximum allowable to Coleman’s campaign. Further, Republicans vow a filibusters should Democrats try to seat Franken before Coleman’s final legal card is played.

Smart Politics’ Eric Ostermeier crunches the numbers to predict that Democrats will likely expand their lead in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2010, bucking a trend in which the party in the White House usually fails to add seats in mid-term elections. “During the past 100+ years, there have only been four instances in which the party controlling the White House has picked up seats in the U.S. House during the mid-term cycle,” he writes. “However, two of these cases have occurred during the past decade: 1902, 1934, 1998, and 2002.”

Where it all happens. Or most of it, anyway. (WDCpix)

House Republicans are so “elated” and “delighted” that they’re “celebrating” after not a single one of them voted for an economic stimulus package this week that included $1.08 billion for Minnesota over the next two years. In a statement, GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann said, “Our economy needs a stimulus proposal that actually creates jobs and reinvigorates the economy. This misguided legislation is not it.”

Rep. Collin Peterson, the 7th District Democrat, joined Bachmann and Republicans in voting against the measure, which heads to the Senate on Monday. “Had this stimulus bill been limited only to programs directly resulting in job creation and infrastructure projects, and for unemployment compensation and food stamps, I might have felt comfortable voting for it,” he said. “However, increasing the price tag on this massive package to include tax giveaways and additional spending on programs that have little or nothing to do with economic development is the wrong way to do this.”

Rep. Erik Paulsen used YouTube to explain his no vote. He says he “absolutely” supports some kind of stimulus package, just not this one. His gripe with this plan is that it was really more of a supplemental spending bill, he says, not a jobs-creation vehicle. (Democratic Reps. Jim Oberstar and Betty McCollum disagree; they see the stimulus bill as a way to both create jobs and save existing ones.) Watch it:

Democrats’ Peterson and Rep. Tim Walz have signed on to the Stop the Congressional Pay Raise Act, which would halt the automatic pay increase for Congress members scheduled for next year. They’re the only Minnesota delegates to agree to the freeze. The 111th Congress started out 2009 with a 2.8 percent raise. Up $4,700 compared to last year, the average congressional salary is now $174,000.

Democrats could be headed for a filibuster-proof majority, according to the AP. If Republican Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire is indeed tapped to be Barack Obama’s Commerce Secretary, it’s likely Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat, will name a replacement from his own party. Republicans, who would go down to 40 seats, are fighting mightly to prevent that from happening. If Al Franken beats former Sen. Norm Coleman and a Democrat gets Gregg’s seat, the Dems get their 60-seat majority.

Rep. Keith Ellison will again sit on the House Financial Services Committee, which deals with one issue that deeply affects the North Minneapolis neighborhood that’s home to his district HQ — the mortgage crisis. “If we can keep people in their homes, stop the fall in home prices and by doing so, fix the home mortgage crisis, we begin to put our economy back on track,” he said in a statement.

In a post I meant to link to earlier, Smart Politics finds that Ellison has a pretty strong mandate: He was elected with the second largest margin of victory ever for the 5th Congressional District and bested all first-term incumbents in margin of victory for reelection.

Earlier: Capitol Catchall: Committee appointments, Peterson’s ‘puters, Klobuchar on DTV

In winning the most votes by a slim margin, Franken is “tainted,” according to Republican state Sen. Geoff Michel. And while Michel won’t find an argument with that assertion from the Wall Street Journal’s editorial writers (from whom he may have taken inspiration for his choice of words), history suggests that a slim winning margin won’t hurt Franken at the polls six years from now.

Eric Ostermeier, writing at his Smart Politics blog from the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, takes a look back at past victors in Minnesota elections to the U.S. Senate and finds that “there is virtually no difference in the re-election success rate of those who won narrowly and those who won by large margins.”

In fact, Ostermeier reports, senators who won by double-digit margins did slightly worse in the next election cycle than those who won by narrower margins. His conclusion:

In short, if past is prologue (and all things being equal), should Franken prevail and choose to run in 2014, he would seem to have about a 67 percent chance of winning reelection, as 15 of 22 Senators have done before him.

If it seems a bit early (or even a bit nutty) to run the numbers already on Franken’s chances in 2014 on a day when senators of his own party thought better of even trying to seat him a first time — well, it was early. A date-stamp reveals that Ostermeier posted his electoral research on Tuesday, Jan. 6, at 2:38 a.m.

A lightweight foam paperweight freebie at the HHH institute event.

DFL candidate Ashwin Madia spoke Monday over the noon hour at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute, in a Charlie Rose-style dialogue with Prof. Larry Jacobs. Tomorrow, Madia’s Republican opponent in the 3rd district congressional race, state Rep. Erik Paulsen, will appear at the same venue. The title of Madia’s presentation today is “Green Fuel, Green Technology and Greenbacks: A Plan to Protect Our Environment and Our Economy.” The event’s over now, but read a liveblog archived after the jump, and look here at noon Tuesday for a liveblog of Paulsen’s appearance. 12:06 p.m.: Jacobs introducing Madia to applause from about 30 gathered at the HHH Institute. Madia will speak for 20 minutes.

12:11 p.m.: Madia: Dependence on oil is an economic problem, a security risk and an unsustainable planetary concern.

12:14 p.m.: More like 50 people here now. Madia knocks Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for downplaying environmental impacts.

12:17 p.m.: Madia: Potential to lead world on carbon neutral technology. Do it now or buy it in 10 years from China. Switchgrass! How? Unleash power of private sector: Let people make a profit, with tax incentives and rebates for businesses and consumers who invest in carbon-neutral tech, as in Israel. Also: R&D.

12:20 p.m.: Madia: When prices for oil were high in the 1970s, the country focused on saving energy, even putting solar panels on the White House roof — which were removed when oil prices dropped.

12:25 p.m.: Madia ends with Humphrey quote, under huge wall collage of mementos from Humphrey’s career. Jacobs dives into dialogue with question on people’s faith in technology. How feasible, cost-effective? Madia’s answer: Not there yet, but very much so to both. If U.S. puts $14 billion per year toward alternative energy technologies, lots of technologies possible. High prices now are creating political will to change: Don’t let that opportunity slip away.

12:30 p.m. : Jacobs: Administration moved away from carbon sequestration technology (his second reference to this … he must really like it). Madia: Today carbon sequestration. Compares to Star Wars technology (favorably, I think). Jacobs: What do you say to West Virginians who rely on coal for jobs? Madia; World is changing. It’s true we’ll lose some jobs but we’ll gain jobs in alternative energy industries. I’m not too worried, because with progress comes more jobs. Jacobs’ last question re: cap-and-trade proposals. Madia: [Missed part of answer here] It won’t hurt public pocket book. Doesn’t support government price controls. Jacobs last-last question [actually first audience question read from a card] re: transportation spending. Madia: Highways to western suburbs jammed, but what if light rail went out there? Ease congestion, increase productivity, spur economic growth, cut pollution, save money on gas and vehicles. Cites Israeli model again, but at Jacobs’ prompting, doesn’t think we need a gas tax to fund changes.

12:40 p.m.: Madia: Pushes pay-as-you-go philosophy. Jacobs: Give us two examples of source of revenue, from what cuts? Madia: Get rid of tax benefits for oil companies and pharmaceutical industries, Iraq pull-out … He gets through six things so fast I lost the thread, and someone in the crowd starts to laugh, just at his speedy delivery, I think.

12:45 p.m.: Jacobs presses on cost competitiveness of green technologies. Would you favor raising costs of carbon-based energy technologies? Madia would not make costs more expensive for carbon-based energy, but would make it cheaper for alternative energies. Jacobs: Offshore drilling? Madia: Maybe that’s part of it, but don’t give oil companies carte blanche. Wants “responsible” drilling, where companies can demonstrate oil’s there and potential for environmental damage is limited. “It’s got to be more thoughtful than ‘Drill, baby, drill.” Jacobs (now reading audience questions off cards?): What’s your view on nuclear power? Madia agrees with Gore: It’s part of an overall strategy.

12:50 p.m.: Jacobs: California had fuel-efficiency standards … should Minnesota and other states set energy policies for themselves, or should it be federal standards? Madia: Both. Hard to argue with California, and even cities can have own policies. But ultimately it’s a national problem. It’s embarrassing that states and cities have had to move forward on these issues as the federal government drags its heels. Jacobs: What about business resistance to state and local energy policy changes? Madia: That argues for need for national energy strategy. Jacobs: with audience question on federal flood insurance. Madia: Hasn’t looked at that issue.

12:55 p.m. Jacobs: What to do about student indebtedness, financial literacy? Madia: Find out why costs increasing and what can be done to contain rather than shift cost from one party to the next. Jacobs: Ethanol’s future? Madia: I’d like to see more cellulosic-based fuel, recognizing the fuel’s importance for the state. Jacobs: That’s still on the drawing board though, as opposed to ethanol. Madia: It’s several years away, but tax incentives and government R&D can hurry it along. Jacobs: Other transportation ideas? Madia: Invest in roads, infrastructure, mass transit. “Smart Cities” concept, with less travel due to Internet and telecommuting from home. Or simply living close to work. Jacobs: How about railroads and airlines? Rethink those  from energy standpoint? Madia: No concrete ideas, but admires China’s rail system as model for regional travel, to reduce demand for air travel – either a government system or, better yet, private systems. Jacobs: What committees would you want to be on in Congress? Madia: Armed Services committee, a budgetary committee –- to make cuts though, not to bring home bacon. Jacobs: Would you make pledge not to accept earmarks? Madia: No. I won’t take middle-of-the-night inserted items, but I would take line items for needed things like the new I-35W bridge.

1:00 p.m.: Question: How does government partner with people to solve problems? Madia: That’s a broad question. Government can’t do this alone is a central theme to my campaign. Specifically, with energy: People need to change habits, even the way they think. “I don’t think my kids are going to be raised that same way” — referring to current energy practices, but a notable answer considering Republican profiling of him as not being a family man. Jacobs, in a final question, picks up on that point: “Do you consider yourself a role model for childless, mortgage-free young people who want to change the country?” Madia explains reference to Paulsen attacks. The most important decision you [young people ] will make is economic policy. Whew — in the very last sentence he utters at this event, Madia finally uses his favorite word, “fulsome,” I think in reference to a national energy strategy. I submit he’s the only candidate for Congress this year making regular use of that SAT-level word. Jacobs announces free T-shirts and reception after speech. Ending applause from now maybe 75-100 people in the room. Maybe the latecomers heard about the free T-shirts.

1:15 p.m.: T-shirts are one thing … free pizza is something we can all agree on. But in a quarter of an hour, this student crowd put away four pies.

1:30 p.m.: HHH Institute students are actually hanging around in the central atrium, talking about issues they just heard about — tax credits and such — and dissecting the dialogue. I guess this is the after-party. Tomorrow: Republican candidate Erik Paulsen, whose theme wasn’t announced as of this morning. But HHH staff here told me they got late word it’ll be the economy, and what tomorrow’s leaders (read: you guys at the Humphrey Institute) can do about it. Like the pizza, the event is free and open to the public, as is Friday’s installment with Independence Party candidate David Dillon. But if you can’t make it, MnIndy expects to liveblog again tomorrow at noon, same bat channel. And with that, this liveblog is officially dead … for now. For another take on today’s proceedings, check out a pizza-and-offspring-status-free liveblog from the Humphrey Institute’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance’s blog, Smart Politics.