Polling on marriage amendment fluctuates wildly a year from vote
Two polls show that the amendment might get defeated while two others show a slight lead for anti-gay marriage activists.
Two polls show that the amendment might get defeated while two others show a slight lead for anti-gay marriage activists.

A SurveyUSA/KSTP poll released Wednesday evening found that a slim majority of Minnesotans would vote for a ballot initiative that would place a ban on gay marriage in the Minnesota Constitution. According to the poll, 51 percent of registered voters surveyed said they would vote in favor of the amendment, while 40 percent say they’d vote against it. Eight percent said they would not vote either way. The poll differs greatly from two other polls conducted on the issue so far this year.

The Star Tribune’s Minnesota Poll, released on Friday, shows that 55 percent of Minnesotans oppose inserting a ban on same-sex marriage in the Minnesota Constitution. Only 39 percent favor such a ban, it found. The poll stands in stark contrast to a survey conducted by anti-gay marriage pollster Lawrence Research and paid for by the National Organization for Marriage, two groups that oppose rights for same-sex couples. A bill to propose such an amendment passed the Minnesota Senate on Wednesday.

Newspapers throughout the state have come out against a Republican bill that proposes a constitutional amendment barring same-sex marriage in Minnesota. The geographic breadth of opposition to the amendment, from the larger Winona, Duluth and Minneapolis to the southern Minnesota farming communities of Albert Lea, New Ulm, Fairmont and tiny Grant County in Western Minnesota suggests it may be a liability for Republicans instead of the turnout machine of years past. On op-ed pages, editors have called the amendment “unnecessary,” “malicious” and a “waste of time” — with one paper even called out several GOP lawmakers as “chickens.” So far, no editorial boards at Minnesota newspaper have come out in support of the amendment.

Rep. Keith Ellison got some cheers and some jeers in editorial pages this week, as pundits put their spin on politics at the end of the year. The Nation called him the “most valuable representative,” while the Star Tribune’s Jon Tevlin told him to pack his bags and move to New York. Tevlin gave Reps. Michele Bachmann and James Oberstar their marching orders as well.
With a week before the election, major daily newspapers and high-profile officials are making their picks for Nov. 2. Democratic state Sen. Tarryl Clark and U.S. Rep. Tim Walz both grabbed endorsements from the state’s largest newspaper on Sunday, while Independence Party candidate for governor Tom Horner gained the support of the Pioneer Press. Walz also got the nod from Republican former Gov. Arne Carlson over the weekend, while GOP candidate Chip Cravaack picked up the endorsement of the Duluth paper.
Independence Party gubernatorial candidate Tom Horner got a double dose of good news over the weekend. The Star Tribune’s editorial board wrote a glowing opinion of Horner’s candidacy, and though it stopped short of endorsing him, the paper left little to the imagination about its pick for Nov. 2. Then, this morning, former Gov. Arne Carlson endorsed Horner’s candidacy.
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