In Florida on Friday, Rep. Michele Bachmann told the Palm Beach Post that she’s been traveling the country to gauge national support if she decides to run for president and that she’s gotten a “fantastic reception” from activists in Iowa and South Carolina. Political prognosticators have also started to pay attention to Bachmann as a potential contender for the 2012 Republican nomination.

Bachmann told the post Post that she’s consulting with her family and that she’s testing the waters “because there’s no sense in running if I wouldn’t have the support of the people.”

She said the presidential campaign can get in the way of the conservative narrative. “This is what my worry has been, that we would spend two years playing the parlor game, indulging ourselves in the parlor game of who will be our nominee, and meanwhile we lose the narrative,” Bachmann said.

On Meet the Press on Sunday, Bachmann hammered home her own narrative: that $105 billion in secret spending she says was hidden by President Barack Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in the Affordable Care Act.

In four instances during that interview Bachmann refused to answer questions and instead repeated that claim, mentioning it eight times in 12 minutes.

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David Gregory ended the interview by asking, “When will you decide about a run for the presidency?”

Bachmann responded, “I think there’s a normal course of events when a decision like that will be made, and, and if I choose to go down that road, I’ll make the decision.”

When and if that decision is made, it could hurt former Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s chances, notes Stu Rothenberg.

But Bachmann, a three-term Congresswoman whose support on the political right and among social conservatives rivals former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s, remains a potential problem for Pawlenty.

Although the two Minnesota Republicans don’t necessarily appeal to the same people, Bachmann’s presence in the Republican contest would undoubtedly draw some Minnesota money and support that would otherwise go to Pawlenty, even if only because he was the “local” guy in the race.

After all, Bachmann represents the most Republican district in the Gopher State. President George W. Bush won her district comfortably with 57 percent in 2004, and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried it with 53 percent in 2008.

He adds that Bachmann has appeal as a native Iowan in that early caucus state, but that she will not be the GOP nominee.

“As the GOP race for president starts to take shape, it’s worth remembering two things. First, Bachmann is not going to be the Republican nominee,” he said. “And second, in a crowded Republican contest in Iowa next February, anything could happen.”

Chris Cillizza added Bachmann to his top ten list for the first time last week:

9. Michele Bachmann: The Minnesota Republican House member is doing everything she can to give off the impression she is seriously considering a run for president. The latest sign? She will headline a fundraiser later this month to benefit the New Hampshire Republican Party. For tea-party aligned voters, Bachmann is a rock star; she was mobbed everywhere she went during last month’s CPAC gathering and her speech brought wild applause from the audience. But, Bachmann has little real political operation and virtually zero demonstrated ability — or willingness — to court voters outside of her conservative base. Still, if former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin doesn’t run, Bachmann would be the candidate most likely to emerge as the tea party pick. (Previous ranking: N/A)

Though Rothenberg thinks Bachmann might hurt Pawlenty, Cillizza gives Pawlenty a top shot at the nomination at this point in the election season.

2. Tim Pawlenty: The former Minnesota governor is starting to win people — including the Fix — over. He is diligently working at building organizations in Iowa and New Hampshire and there are some signs that those efforts are paying off as he placed a solid third in a January straw poll in the Granite State. The biggest knock on Pawlenty is that he’s too nice and/or not charismatic enough to win the nomination. But, Pawlenty is improving — his 2011 speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference was far better than the 2010 edition — and, given the flaws in the field, being too nice isn’t all that bad. As a result, Pawlenty is the name you hear on more and more lips when asking neutral Republicans who they think their nominee might be. And that’s a great place to be right now. (Previous ranking: 5)

Cillizza is a fan and doesn’t break T-Paw’s chops for galavanting around the nation, the way we locals (who unlike Cillizza are the constituents he leaves behind) tend to do:

Give Tpaw credit — he recognized that he had to quickly get moving if he wanted to emerge as a national leader, and he has done just that. Pawlenty has been somewhere close to ever-present on cable chat shows and has generally weighed in on national issues with gravity and smarts. (His decision to suspend any expenditure of state dollars to ACORN backfired a bit when Minnesota’s ACORN representative said the organization didn’t get any state cash.) Pawlenty has a prime speaking spot at the Values Voters Summit tomorrow night; if he does well, expect the buzz factor on him to rise.

But Cillizza’s not the only one with Pawlenty in his sights as the Values Voter Summit gets underway. Minnesota’s governor is the first target of a new Democratic National Committee campaign called “Call ‘Em Out,” taking Pawlenty to task for his statement about health care reform.

The campaign’s name is inspired by the Obama line: “I will not waste time with those who have made the calculation that it’s better politics to kill this plan than improve it … If you misrepresent what’s in the plan, we will call you out.”

Photo: MPR Polinaut

Gov. Tim Pawlenty is no longer swimming at the deep end with the Republican Party’s top 10 ‘influencers,” says The Fix. But he had another visit from the person in the fish suit during his radio show today — a sure sign it’s time to declare a winner in last week’s caption contest.

The Washington Post blog The Fix posts a monthly ranking of top Republicans, but Minnesota’s governor — a fixture on the list — wasn’t named this month.

Pawlenty and Rush Limbaugh fell off the chart in favor of Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele and Utah Gov. John Huntsman.

Pawlenty may have hurt his chances by not following The Fix blogger Chris Cillizza’s instructions last month to hurry up and decide whether he’s running for re-election or president. 

Maybe the sauciness of his quips to the media tomorrow during his 3 a.m. fishing expedition on White Bear Lake will give some indication of his plans.

At last year’s fishing opener, his bawdy wisecrack about not having sex with his wife caused ripples of speculation about how such talk would affect his chances to become Sen. John McCain’s vice presidential pick.  

And speaking of White Bear Lake and fish and making decisions, here’s a winner in last week’s caption contest. (The photo was from Pawlenty’s appearance at the White Bear Lake Chamber of Commerce.)  

Photo: Tom Scheck, MPR Polinaut

While philosophically opposed to the Obama Administration’s TARP bailout, Gov. Pawlenty could not say no to the recently announced CARP stimulus package.

A box of MnIndy-brand fish sticks goes out to reader Bob Moffitt for that one. Thanks to all who submitted captions – they were funny.

The Fix’s Chris Cillizza fixed Pawlenty’s current rank among “Ten Republicans to Watch” thusly:

7. Tim Pawlenty: T-Paw, the governor of Minnesota, continues to stay out of the national limelight but watch for him to ramp up his national profile in the early summer. Pawlenty also has to make a decision about whether or not to seek a third term in 2010 after winning in 2006 with just 47 percent. A loss would likely close out his presidential prospects, a fact that leads us to believe Pawlenty will retire to focus on building a national organization rather than risk his political future on a single statewide race. (Previous ranking: 6)

UPDATE: That may be the view from D.C., but an argument can be made that Pawlenty has a good shot at a third term.

Paulsen sign, Election Night

Minnesota’s U.S. representative-elect for the Third District, Republican Erik Paulsen, ran one of the best five House campaigns in the country, according to the Washington Post blog The Fix. Paulsen “beat back the anti-Republican trend,” writes Chris Cillizza (citing President-elect Barack Obama’s showing and Al Franken’s apparent success), “by focusing on his own accomplishments in the state legislature.”

The Fix tracked the Third District contest closely throughout the campaign season as one of the nation’s most competitive — and expensive — congressional races, with Democrat Ashwin Madia and David Dillon of the Independence Party vying with Paulsen to replace Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, who is retiring. And Paulsen’s margin of victory was wider than the recount-tight result that most polls appeared to predict (48 percent of the vote compared to 41 for Madia and 11 for Dillon).

But in several ways Cillizza’s summary this morning doesn’t exactly square with how home-state observers might recall the race:

- It may almost be timely, but it’s still a bit silly to cite a prospective victory by Democrat Franken over incumbent U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman as part of any anti-Republican factor in the Third District, since Madia outperformed Franken there.

- With Dillon pulling down more than 10 percent, this contest was a better example of how Republicans win three-way races than how Paulsen bucked an anti-Republican trend that wasn’t a game-changer in any of Minnesota’s congressional races. Even Republican U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, despite her best efforts, won by 3 percentage points, in another race with an Independence Party candidate topping 10 percent.

- Far from focusing on it, Paulsen ran away from his record as one of the most conservative members of the state Legislature.

- What the Republican campaign did focus on (but Cillizza didn’t mention) was how Paulsen, a white homeowner and father of four, fit the district’s “demographics” better then Madia, a single renter of South Asian descent. That point, made by Paulsen stand-ins at not one but two ham-handed state Capitol press conference appearances, was underscored by a National Republican Congressional Committee ad that made Madia’s skin darker and drew worldwide rebuke.

Here’s the full item on Paulsen from The Fix, followed by a video from one of the press conferences where Paulsen’s “demographics,” not his accomplishments, were the focus.

At first glance, the retirement of Rep. Jim Ramstad (R) presented an ideal pickup opportunity for national Democrats. The suburban Twin Cities seat gave President George W. Bush a narrow 51 percent victory in 2004 and looked to be the epicenter of anti-war movement in the state. And, when Democrats nominated Iraq war veteran Ashwin Madia, it looked like a tailor-made pickup. Enter state Sen. [sic] Erik Paulsen, one of the best (and only) recruits for House Republicans in 2008. Paulsen was able to beat back the anti-Republican trend in the state (Obama won the state by 10 points and it appears as though Al Franken is going to win the Senate seat) by focusing on his own accomplishments in the state legislature. A rare bit of good news for Republicans nationally.

(Hat tip to Political Animal for spotting The Fix’s error in ID’ing Paulsen as a state senator — he’s a state Rep.)

The Minnesota DFL Party put together this highlight reel of remarks by state Republican Party Chair Ron Carey and state Sen. Geoff Michel speaking on behalf of Paulsen:

That was the list on which Minnesota’s 3rd District race to replace U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad used to appear, but now it’s at No. 29, one notch behind that upstart competitive contest next door in the 6th District made famous by U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s funny comments and DFL challenger Elwyn “Cash Magnet” Tinklenberg’s funny name. The relevant quote, with links, after the jump.

29. Minnesota’s 3rd district (R): Democrat Ashwin Madia appears to have edged ahead of state Sen. Erik Paulsen (R) in this race in the suburbs of the Twin Cities. In a neutral year, Paulsen would likely win. But Madia’s grassroots campaign, his service in Iraq and the strong year shaping up for Democrats in the state make him a slight favorite.

28. Minnesota’s 6th district (R): Note to vulnerable incumbents: Don’t go on national TV two weeks before an election. Just don’t do it.