Paulsen sign, Election Night

Minnesota’s U.S. representative-elect for the Third District, Republican Erik Paulsen, ran one of the best five House campaigns in the country, according to the Washington Post blog The Fix. Paulsen “beat back the anti-Republican trend,” writes Chris Cillizza (citing President-elect Barack Obama’s showing and Al Franken’s apparent success), “by focusing on his own accomplishments in the state legislature.”

The Fix tracked the Third District contest closely throughout the campaign season as one of the nation’s most competitive — and expensive — congressional races, with Democrat Ashwin Madia and David Dillon of the Independence Party vying with Paulsen to replace Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, who is retiring. And Paulsen’s margin of victory was wider than the recount-tight result that most polls appeared to predict (48 percent of the vote compared to 41 for Madia and 11 for Dillon).

But in several ways Cillizza’s summary this morning doesn’t exactly square with how home-state observers might recall the race:

- It may almost be timely, but it’s still a bit silly to cite a prospective victory by Democrat Franken over incumbent U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman as part of any anti-Republican factor in the Third District, since Madia outperformed Franken there.

- With Dillon pulling down more than 10 percent, this contest was a better example of how Republicans win three-way races than how Paulsen bucked an anti-Republican trend that wasn’t a game-changer in any of Minnesota’s congressional races. Even Republican U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, despite her best efforts, won by 3 percentage points, in another race with an Independence Party candidate topping 10 percent.

- Far from focusing on it, Paulsen ran away from his record as one of the most conservative members of the state Legislature.

- What the Republican campaign did focus on (but Cillizza didn’t mention) was how Paulsen, a white homeowner and father of four, fit the district’s “demographics” better then Madia, a single renter of South Asian descent. That point, made by Paulsen stand-ins at not one but two ham-handed state Capitol press conference appearances, was underscored by a National Republican Congressional Committee ad that made Madia’s skin darker and drew worldwide rebuke.

Here’s the full item on Paulsen from The Fix, followed by a video from one of the press conferences where Paulsen’s “demographics,” not his accomplishments, were the focus.

At first glance, the retirement of Rep. Jim Ramstad (R) presented an ideal pickup opportunity for national Democrats. The suburban Twin Cities seat gave President George W. Bush a narrow 51 percent victory in 2004 and looked to be the epicenter of anti-war movement in the state. And, when Democrats nominated Iraq war veteran Ashwin Madia, it looked like a tailor-made pickup. Enter state Sen. [sic] Erik Paulsen, one of the best (and only) recruits for House Republicans in 2008. Paulsen was able to beat back the anti-Republican trend in the state (Obama won the state by 10 points and it appears as though Al Franken is going to win the Senate seat) by focusing on his own accomplishments in the state legislature. A rare bit of good news for Republicans nationally.

(Hat tip to Political Animal for spotting The Fix’s error in ID’ing Paulsen as a state senator — he’s a state Rep.)

The Minnesota DFL Party put together this highlight reel of remarks by state Republican Party Chair Ron Carey and state Sen. Geoff Michel speaking on behalf of Paulsen:

Bill Newman and Nancy Cooley were named in an e-mail that the Madia campaign says it sent to supporters today. Both say they contacted the campaign after hanging up on pollsters whose questioning turned sharply anti-Madia after what Newman called a “vague, broad” opening to the conversations.

Cooley said her caller — a man with an accent that she judged not to be American — asked her to take a political survey, which she was happy to do because she had never been surveyed and always wondered who gets called. Initial questions concerning the presidential and U.S. Senate races seemed of the sort she might expect.

“But when he got down to Congress, he said very negative things about Ashwin, and very positive things about his opponent,” Cooley said. “It was not a survey. He was very pushy. It made me angry.”

Newman likewise said he was lulled by early softballs about general topics such as the direction the country is going. After hitting the major races, his caller — whose generically pleasant voice seemed to belong to a white, Midwestern female, with low background noise suggesting a call center — asked Newman to choose a top concern from a list of a dozen or so issues, such as getting out of Iraq and balancing the budget.

When Newman then named Madia as his preference in the 3rd District race, the caller asked a series of questions that began, “Would you be more likely or less likely to support Madia if you knew that… ” What followed was a string of statements, clearly slanted against Madia, along the lines of “Madia will raise your taxes?” or “Madia didn’t support FISA, which keeps us safe from terrorists?”

She only got through three before Newman, offended, hung up. He figures the call, untraceable even with Caller ID, came in around 8:30 p.m. Twenty minutes later he’d fired off an angry tirade (along with a large donation) to the Madia campaign.

“There was no mistaking it. It was definitely a push poll. And it was definitely targeting Madia,” said Newman, who plans to vote for Madia but says he wouldn’t characterize himself as an activist. He’s received political calls over the years, he said — maybe even push polls, but if so they were much more subtle.

“It’s out there. It’s real,” Newman said of the blatant kinds of push-polling. “I just hate this s—, and I would even if I was a Republican.”

“That should have been the headline in the media: Surge failed. But it didn’t play. It almost reminds me of when Oliver North testified before Congress back in the ’80s. He showed up with a chest of medals and everyone was  dazzled by his presence. I just wonder if the media was similarly dazzled by seeing this general, and [was] unwilling to dig beneath.”

We also discuss the looming Third District endorsing convention, where one-time dark horse Ashwin Madia appears to be on the verge of securing enough delegates to take the prize. “Terri Bonoff was way in the lead for a while as the presumptive DFL nominee,” Schultz notes. “Ashwin Madia came out of nowhere. The stories are that he is within about eight votes of getting the 60 percent necessary for the nomination. Bonoff appears to be nowhere near getting that.

“That will tell us a lot about what the race is going to look like this coming November. You have Erik Paulsen, who is very, very conservative — probably, I’ve argued, more conservative than the district is. And you have Bonoff and Madia, who each are trying to paint themselves as moderate Democrats, with Madia looking like somewhere between an Obama grassroots candidate and, as he describes himself, a McCain supporter in 2000. It’s a race that both the Democratic and Republican national committees have highlighted for putting a ton of money into.”

The Schultz Report: Petraeus talks to Congress, plus Minnesota’s Third District Congressional endorsement battle (14:32)

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Minnesota Democratic insiders have been making worried sounds about Bonoff’s performance on the stump since the start of her campaign. “She doesn’t appear to be, um, very good on her feet,” one delicately observed to the Monitor last month. That’s one way of putting it. Another is that she’s come off a total lightweight, prone to malaprop, misstatement and cheerful non sequitur. Last fall, Republican op Michael Brodkorb had a field day assembling highlights from Bonoff’s campaign launch event, which was replete with references to “countries like Asia and Europe” and her wish to be “the next Minnesota state representative.”

Brodkorb: Terri Bonoff’s kickoff press conference (:34)

Bonoff doesn’t come off much better in the YouTube clips that aren’t edited to make her look bad. Check out her closing remarks from a January forum held by the Minneapolis Central Labor Union Council. Just previous to Bonoff, Ashwin Media had closed by pledging to fight for Minnesotans. 

“I think Ashwin’s right. He is a fighter, and I feel it every day, and I’m not certain that’s what we need in Washington.” [Wait. Fighting for people = good.] “I’m a fighter, too, but I fight in a different way… I saw what was missing in our state, and I thought, you know, I’ve been so fortunate, I went through a lot, but life’s turned out great for me, I’m gonna give back. And that’s why I went to the state Senate. And here I am, and I’m doin’ that again!”

That is to say: I mean well! Elect me!

If she loses the nomination to Ashwin Madia, a lot of Third District Republicans will be sorry to see Bonoff go.

There’s video of the MCLUC event below the jump.

Continued: Click “Read More” Third District forum at Mpls Central Labor Union Council, 1/31/08

It’s the highest-level endorsement that Madia has received to date. Other notables who are formally in his camp: SEIU, the service employees’ union; current state Senators Mee Moua and Satveer Chaudhary; and former state Senator and DNR commissioner Gene Merriam. [Full list.] By contrast, the flagging campaign of Terri Bonoff is chock-full of Minnesota Democratic luminaries, from the dinosaur diorama of Mondale, Spannaus, Moe, and Growe to the current Democratic leaders in the Lege, Margaret Kelliher and Larry Pogemiller. [Full list.]