A pair of campaign finance complaints against the National Organization for Marriage and the Minnesota Family Council were dismissed by the Minnesota Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board on Wednesday. Common Cause Minnesota had filed the complaints alleging that advertising by the two groups on an anti-gay marriage amendment in 2010 constituted lobbying. The board ruled that the ads were too vague to trigger the registration requirement for lobbyists.

The board dismissed the complaint against the Minnesota Family Council because the group did not pay for the ads. Though the ads were listed as “Paid for by the Minnesota Family Council and the National Organization for Marriage,” the Family Council did not actually contribute any funds to the ad campaign.

MFC’s CEO John Helmberger told the board,

Because of their shared goals of preserving traditional marriage in Minnesota, National Organization for Marriage asked MFC to help plan the production and placement of the [subject] ads. While MFC had input as to the production and placement of these ads, MFC did not pay for any part of their production or broadcast, nor is it obligated to reimburse the National Organization for Marriage for any part of the cost of producing or broadcasting the ads. Further, during 2010 MFC did not make any contribution to the National Organization for Marriage.

Based on that, the board dismissed the complaint from the group.

“There is no probable cause to believe that MFC paid for or is obligated to pay for any cost of creation, production, distribution, or broadcasting of the subject communications,” the board wrote.

The board also dismissed the complaint against NOM: “There is no probable cause to believe that NOM engaged in activities during 2010 that would require it to report as a principal [lobbyist].”

Because the ads were vague, NOM did not actually lobby for the anti–gay marriage amendment, the board noted. At issue is the fact that although NOM advocated the election of Tom Emmer who supported the amendment, the governor has no say in constitutional amendments.

“The legislation most clearly implied in the ads is the constitutional amendment to define marriage,” the board wrote. “While the next Governor may advocate for a legislative action, the Governor himself or herself can neither force nor prevent the placing a constitutional amendment question before the voters.”

The board also concluded that since no bills on same-sex marriage were active in the Minnesota Legislature at the time the ads came out, the ads did no constitute lobbying.

“Some of the ads also refer generally to the claim that Dayton, Horner, or the DFL legislature want to impose gay marriage on Minnesotans. Considering the fact that at the time the ads ran, there were no active bills and the composition of the next legislature could not be predicted, these references are too remote and vague to constitute an attempt to influence legislative action.”

The board added, “Any influence the ads may have on a the actions of future legislature, the composition of which will not be known until after the 2010 elections, is too speculative to permit regulation of the ads under Minnesota’s principal disclosure statutes.”

Copies of the decisions can be viewed on the board’s website.

Haunted by the memories of the 2008 election between former Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and current Sen. Al Franken (D), Minnesota is bracing for yet another contentious recount, this time to determine the state’s next governor.

Just as the ‘08 outcome had national implications — Franken became the temporary 60th Democratic Senate vote in 2009 (due to Sen. Ted Kennedy’s death not long after) — a delayed decision on the 2010 gubernatorial race would have wide repercussions at both the local and national levels. The state legislature, which flipped to the GOP on Tuesday, could quickly pass conservative bills while a Democratic governor, Mark Dayton, waits in limbo. All the while, Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty finds himself in a unique posturing position before his probable bid for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

After all precincts reported their totals on Wednesday, former U.S. Senator and Democratic candidate Dayton held a narrow 43.63–43.21 percent lead over his Republican opponent, state Rep. Tom Emmer, in the gubernatorial campaign. Tom Horner, a third-party candidate running for the Independence Party, drew 12 percent.

Mark Dayton leads Tom Emmer by nearly 9,000 votes. Photo: Minnesota Independent

With only 8,856 votes separating Dayton and Emmer, media outlets have held off on calling the race, and, so far, neither candidate has declared victory nor conceded defeat. Vote tallies are unofficial until the State Canvassing Board meets on Nov. 23. Counties will examine their vote totals and the final numbers could still shift before that date, but as long as Dayton and Emmer remain within 0.5 percent of each other, the state will automatically conduct a recount, likely starting on Nov. 29.

The term for the next governor is scheduled to begin on Jan. 3. If the recount drags on past that date, the constitution calls for the current executive to remain in office. Pawlenty issued a press release Wednesday affirming that he will stay in the governor’s office until a new governor is sworn in.

“My administration is fully committed and prepared to accomplish the swift and orderly transition to the next governor as soon as a final determination is made. As required by Article V of the Minnesota Constitution, I will continue to serve as Governor until a new governor takes the oath,” the release said.

While the gubernatorial campaign remains in limbo, Republicans swept both sides of the state legislature this week. Pawlenty faced a hostile Democratic legislature during the entirety of his eight years in office. Democrats at times held veto-proof majorities, forcing Pawlenty to push only a limited form of his ideological goals during his tenure. If the final decision on certifying the next governor drags into 2011, Pawlenty and state Republicans could rush through numerous pieces of conservative legislation, allowing the governor to add accomplishments he can tout to the Republican base when he hits the campaign trail in Iowa and New Hampshire next year.

It is difficult to discern exactly how long a recount could last, but the Coleman-Franken scenario from 2008 offers insight into the process. The state declared Franken the initial winner after a hand recount of votes lasted seven weeks. Reforms to the election process and a smaller pool of votes cast during a midterm year means a recount should proceed quicker in 2010, likely to last three to four weeks, according David Schultz, a professor at the Hamline University School of Law in St. Paul.

If that’s the case, the outcome should, theoretically, be known before the end of the year, just in time for the next governor to take the oath on schedule. However, like 2008, it is not the recount itself that would extend the race but rather subsequent lawsuits that would endlessly drag out the final result. If the losing candidate chooses to file a lawsuit challenging those results, the state Supreme Court chief justice appoints a three-judge panel to review the complaints. That decision itself can then be appealed to the state Supreme Court, the highest point it could reach in a state-level election.

Following the 2008 recount, Coleman continued filing lawsuits up the ladder in questioning Franken’s victory. The three-judge panel did not make their decision until April 2009, and then the Supreme Court’s final ruling did not come down until the end of June, when Franken was finally allowed to assume his seat in the U.S. Senate.

Differences between the current gubernatorial results and 2008 may shorten that judicial window. Unlike the few hundred votes that separated Franken and Coleman, Dayton’s nearly 9,000 vote lead should prove difficult for Emmer to overcome in the recount.

On Wednesday, Jay Weiner, journalist and author of “This Is Not Florida: How Al Franken Won The Minnesota Senate Recount,” detailed changes in Minnesota election law since 2008 that should streamline the process in 2010. “Key among the changes: Absentee ballots this time ’round were viewed and accepted by centralized absentee ballot boards in each county. No longer did tired poll workers late at night have to quickly determine if absentee ballots followed the various guidelines,” Weiner wrote. “Also, signature mismatches, an element in the Senate recounts election contest trial, have been eliminated.”

The GOP has brought in a lawyer from the 2000 Bush v. Gore case to act on Tom Emmer's behalf. Photo: Facebook

Even if continuing the recount through lawsuits would be unlikely to change the results this time around, the Republican Party has every reason to extend the process for as long as possible if Dayton appears likely to win. The state party has already taken an aggressive public posture on the recount that indicates they are willing to see the race through.

“The stakes are enormously high in this one, much in the same way they were enormously high with Franken and Coleman. I see the same political motives for filing the challenge,” David Schultz said.

At a GOP news conference on Wednesday morning, state GOP Chairman Mark Sutton strongly pushed back against those who may view Dayton’s substantial lead as a solidified victory. “We’re going to pursue this until we’re absolutely certain that all the votes were counted correctly.”

The state party has hired Washington lawyer Michael Toner, who was the general counsel for the 2000 Bush campaign, an indication that they may already be eying a post-recount lawsuit. “It looks like it’s recount part two: And this time it’s personal,” Sutton said. (When contacted with questions, Toner directed the Minnesota Independent to the communications director for the Minnesota Republican Party, who did not return e-mail seeking comment.)

“This is the exact same rhetoric they were using two years ago. They’re starting off with similar strategy … which is to claim voter fraud,” Schultz told the Minnesota Independent. Republican claims of voter fraud were bolstered on election night when Hennepin County, which houses Minneapolis and surrounding suburbs, made a tabulation error and reported too many votes. That mistake was corrected and accounted for, bringing Emmer’s results closer to Dayton’s, but state Republicans have continued to point to it as an indication that Emmer could further close the vote-total gap.

Would Pawlenty be willing to push conservative bills through a Republican legislature during litigation even if Dayton continues to hold a solid lead in the vote totals? The governor’s communications director did not respond to requests for comment, but in a press release from Pawlenty’s Freedom First PAC, the governor praised the Republican state victories.

“The historic nature of this victory cannot be overstated: For the first time since legislative races were partisan, Republicans will now have majorities in both the state House and Senate. This is a great validation of our work over the last eight years to cut spending and keep a lid on taxes,” Pawlenty wrote.

Pawlenty’s statement is in line with other Republicans’ attempts to frame the legislative victories as a governing mandate granted by voters even if the party loses the gubernatorial race. If party officials truly view the results in those terms, they would likely feel justified pushing their agenda while they still have a friendly face in the governor’s office.

“There may be powerful incentive for the Republicans to want to enact and do things very, very quickly during that time period,” Schultz said. “Get a budget passed, do all kinds of stuff when they’re guaranteed of having a Republican majority and a Republican governor.”

Pawlenty has said he will make a decision on his presidential campaign sometime during the first quarter of 2011; he did not seek a third term so that he could begin building his campaign infrastructure and increase his time spent in early voting states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. An extended recount would delay his ability to implement those plans, but it would also allow Pawlenty to build his conservative legislative credentials in ways previously prevented by a Democratic-controlled House and Senate.

Standard Republican issues of taxes and social conservative topics would likely be among the first issues addressed. Pawlenty often touts his record of not raising taxes in a liberal state when he visits national media outlets. The opportunity to pass a major tax cut — especially corporate rates that a Gov. Dayton would be unlikely to let decrease — may be too tempting for Pawlenty to pass up. One idea floated in the past that may surface again is a taxpayers bill of rights, which would essentially only allow Minnesota taxes to be raised if they are put to a popular vote.

Codifying a ban on same-sex marriage may also be addressed. Passing legislation tackling this topic would play well among the base in Iowa, one of the states Pawlenty has invested in most heavily as he eyes 2012. Three Iowa Supreme Court justices lost retention votes on Tuesday after state and national conservatives campaigned against them for their votes in ruling bans on same-sex marriage unconstitutional. Pawlenty praised their efforts to oust the judges, and passing legislation against same-sex marriage in his own state would add credibility to his statements when he speaks to the Republican base.

One issue that would immediately confront Pawlenty if he stays in office past his initial expiration date would be an opt-in to a federal Medicaid assistance program. As part of the health-care reform legislation, Minnesota has the option of gaining extra federal Medicaid aid by increasing state enrollment. That would require the state to spend an extra $188 million, but the state would be expected to gain $1.4 billion of federal assistance in return. Democrats support the opt-in, with Republicans opposed. During the budget session last year, the two sides struck a deal: Pawlenty had the option of opting-in last year –- which he declined -– and the next governor would be presented with the same choice when he or she assumed office. Dayton campaigned on taking part in that federal program, but the next governor would have to make that decision by Jan. 15, leaving the choice in Pawlenty’s hands if lawsuits prolong the election.

Patrick Caldwell is the American Independent’s Minnesota correspondent.

Reports filed with the Minnesota Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board last week indicate that independent expenditure group Minnesota’s Future has shifted its behavior after a complaint was filed with the board last month by the Minnesota chapter of Common Cause. That complaint alleged that Minnesota’s Future had failed to detail the full extent of donor information required by law in their last finance report.

Minnesota’s Future is one of the conservative state organizations that has played a central role in outside spending during this year’s gubernatorial campaign between Democrat Mark Dayton, Republican Tom Emmer and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. The group has received the majority of its funds from the Republican Governors Association (RGA), and used it to run a number of television ads attacking Dayton.

Minnesota’s Future exists as part of a complicated web of organizations all designed to operate harmoniously with the goal of diverting the original source of funding for political ads. The process starts with the RGA, a national organization that rakes in cash from a wide number of avenues ranging from small individual donors to major corporations. The RGA has not actually donated funds to Minnesota’s Future itself; instead the RGA has contributed $2.3 million to a group called Minnesota Future LLC an organization technically separate from Minnesota’s Future. The LLC does not directly engage in political campaigning, and instead sends all of its nonoperational funds directly to Minnesota’s Future.

In their complaint, Common Cause charged that the LLC needed to file paperwork with the state board, something the group had not done by the 42-day pre-general election report. Minnesota’s Future LLC appears to have taken that criticism to heart, as the LLC received its own separate filing when this week’s report was released. But other areas of concern in Common Causes’ complaint persist in the new report.

The reports from the LLC still do not disclose the original origin of the the money for the RGA donations. The pages titled “Source of Funding for Contribution” are left completely blank in the report. Compare that to one of Minnesota Future LLC’s rival organizations — WIN Minnesota — that has received a massive cash infusion from the Democratic Governors Association. Much like the two Minnesota’s Future organizations, WIN Minnesota operates in tandem with a group known as Alliance for a Better Minnesota (ABM). WIN collects the large cash donations from the national Democrats and funnels it to ABM to run ads.

Unlike Minnesota Future LLC, WIN Minnesota details the original source of the DGA’s funding. It is through these fully completed finance reports that voters can become aware of the fact that national corporations such as AT&T are funding commercials against Emmer. Though the overall source of the RGA’s money is disclosed through IRS filings, by leaving large portions of the campaign finance report blank, Minnesota Future LLC prevents citizens from learning who specifically has invested.

Common Cause Minnesota’s Executive Director Mike Dean responded to these latest filings in a post on the group’s blog earlier this week:

“We are concerned that all the secret money flowing into Minnesota’s Future in an attempt to influence the outcome of the governor’s race,” said Mike Dean, Executive Director of Common Cause Minnesota. “Disclosure of these contributions is not only important in preventing corruption, but it also is vital to enforcing the law.”

At the September reporting deadline, the RGA was Minnesota’s Future’s sole donor outside of a small amount contributed by the group’s registered agent. The vast majority of Minnesota Future LLC’s funds continue to come through donations from the RGA, but Minnesota’s Future has expanded its donor bank slightly beyond the funds from the LLC.

This time around Minnesota’s Future gained $100,000 from a group called State Fund for Economic Growth LLC. That organization serves as a front for a local business much in the same way Minnesota Future LLC allows the RGA to distance itself from the political advertisements it funds. The State Fund for Economic Growth LLC has received all of its funds from banking company TCF Financial International. The group has not directly spent money on any Minnesota races, but contributed an even $100,000 to both Minnesota’s Future and MN Forward, the other conservative organization backing Emmer that has been the center of controversies this election cycle. Minnesota’s Future also picked up $25,000 from Hubbard Broadcasting, another major backer of MN Forward.

Patrick Caldwell is the American Independent’s Minnesota correspondent.

A poll released by Public Policy Polling on Saturday found DFLer Mark Dayton with a slight lead over Republican Tom Emmer at 43 percent to 40 percent. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner got 15 percent. The poll sampled a large number of Minnesotans — 2,058 — and therefore had a margin of error or just 2.2 percent.

PPP notes that all candidates had a negative favorability rating, but Emmer was the most negative with 14 percent more people saying they had an unfavorable view (51 percent) than a favorable one (37 percent). Two percent more voters had a negative favorability for Dayton (45 percent negative, 42 percent positive), and Horner had a 1 percent difference (36 percent negative, 35 percent positive).

PPP also said that Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s unpopularity in Minnesota is aiding the DFL. According to a press release from PPP:

There are a lot of open Gubernatorial seats this year where the unpopularity of an outgoing Democratic Governor is making it hard for his party to hold onto the office, but Minnesota’s a rare case where an unpopular outgoing Republican could be part of his party’s problem. Only 43% of voters in the state approve of the job Pawlenty is doing to 50% who disapprove. And the state expresses little enthusiasm for a 2012 Pawlenty White House bid with only 23% supportive of the idea and 59% opposed to it. It’s a close race and could go either way but Pawlenty fatigue might help put Dayton over the top.

Democrats buoyed by a string of polls showing Mark Dayton pulling ahead by a healthy margin got a sobering report Thursday night: A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows Dayton up by 1 point over Republican Tom Emmer in the race for governor. Independence party candidate Tom Horner got 13 percent, with 6 percent undecided. It’s the first SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota to include cell phone users.

The poll found that both Dayton and Emmer had strong support from their bases with 78 percent of DFLers for Dayton and 76 percent of Republicans for Emmer. Independents liked Emmer and Dayton evenly at 37 percent. Self-described moderates broke for Dayton by a 2-to-1 margin, and tea partiers liked Emmer at 25 to 1. Emmer led among men and voters under 50. Dayton took women and voters over 50. Dayton had more support in the Twin Cities and Iron Range while Emmer out-polled him elsewhere.

“Impossible to say who has the late advantage in the Minnesota Governor’s race, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-election tracking poll for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis,” the pollster says. “DFL candidate Mark Dayton has never trailed, but neither in 3 polls has he led by more than 5 points.”

On cell-phone-only voters, “CPO respondents account for 15% of likely voters. Unlike the findings in some academic research, and unlike SurveyUSA data in California, CPO respondents in Minnesota are not politically different than respondents interviewed on their home phones.”

A MPR/HHH poll released on Thursday showed Dayton up by 12, a St. Cloud State University poll on Tuesday had him up by 10 points, and a Star Tribune poll had him up by 7 percent this weekend.

Rep. Tim Walz expanded his lead over Republican challenger Randy Demmer, according to a KAAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll released on Wednesday. The poll found Walz breaking the 50 percent mark, with Demmer getting 41 percent. The poll also found that among voters in the First Congressional District, DFLer Mark Dayton narrowly leads Republican Tom Emmer in the race for governor at 42 percent to 41 percent. Independence party candidate Tom Horner got 13 percent.

Walz and Demmer took most of the votes in the poll. IP candidate Steven Wilson got 4 percent, while independent candidate Lars Johnson got 2 percent. Four percent were undecided.

The economy was the top issue in the district with 58 percent of voters rating it as their primary concern.

The poll surveyed 800 people between Oct. 22 and 26. SurveyUSA has not polled mobile-phones in Minnesota this cycle and the KAAL story doesn’t mention that they did in this case. The survey had a margin of 4.2 percent.

Following two polls this week that show Mark Dayton ahead of Tom Emmer by 7 and 10 percentage points in the governor’s race, there’s more bad news for the Republican: New York Times statistics guru Nate Silver puts his chances at winning at 14.9 percent, his worst showing all year.

A St. Cloud State University poll released early this week showed Dayton up by 10 points (37 percent to Emmer’s 27). That margin is three points higher than Sunday’s Star Tribune poll (41-34).

Silver, who runs the site FiveThirtyEight, predicts a Dayton win: 45.7 percent for Dayton, 39.2 percent for Emmer and 12.9 percent for Independence Party candidate Tom Horner.

But it’s another chart that’s most interesting, the one marked, “The chance that each candidate will win based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment.” For that one, Dayton’s spiked in October, with Silver giving Dayton an 85.1 percent chance of winning. The probability of an Emmer win: Just shy of 15 percent.

A Dayton win could be one of few bright spots for Democrats next Tuesday, though. Huffington Post’s Pollster, which rates the race “leans Dem,” predicts 29 wins for Republicans in governors’ races and 17 for Democrats, with four tossups.

Via MN Publius.

A poll by St. Cloud State University has DFLer Mark Dayton leading Republican Tom Emmer 37 to 27 percent in the governor’s race — a margin three points higher than that registered in this weekend’s Star Tribune poll. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is at 18 percent, his best showing among recent polls. According to the poll, 15 percent of respondents are undecided.

When the poll teased out likely voters, the margin remained roughly the same: Dayton gets 40 percent, Emmer 30 percent and Horner 19 percent. The poll sampled 628 people using both landline and mobile phones, and has a margin of error of 5 percent.

The polls authors said that Dayton leads in most demographic categories.

Eight out of 10 Democrats are supporting Dayton while 7 out of 10 Republicans are supporting Emmer. Horner is taking a number of Republicans. Twenty-three percent of Republican identified voters picked Horner.

Dayton leads in all age groups except ages 45 to 54, he leads in all economic strata, among both men and women, and has a strong showing in the Twin Cities metro and Greater Minnesota.

Full results and methodology can be viewed at the survey website.

Democrat Mark Dayton holds a significant lead in the gubernatorial campaign, according to a new Star Tribune poll released over the weekend. Dayton beats Republican Tom Emmer 41-34 percent in the poll with a week left before Election Day. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner remains little more than a spoiler in the new survey, drawing only 13 percent. The Strib’s poll of 999 likely Minnesota voters was conducted between Oct. 18 and 21 and has a +/- 3.9 percent margin of error.

The Strib’s surveys have consistently shown Dayton leading Emmer, with the new poll’s seven-point margin closer than their last poll in September. While polls from the Strib and MPR have generally put Dayton in a comfortable position in the race, Rasmussen and KSTP‘s polls paint a much closer election, with Dayton and Emmer locked in a dead heat. With such widely diverging polling results, TPM’s PollTracker gives Dayton only a slight 3.6 percent edge on average.

Patrick Caldwell is the American Independent’s Minnesota correspondent.

With a week before the election, major daily newspapers and high-profile officials are making their picks for Nov. 2. Democratic state Sen. Tarryl Clark and U.S. Rep. Tim Walz both grabbed endorsements from the state’s largest newspaper on Sunday, and Independence Party candidate for governor Tom Horner gained the support of the Pioneer Press. Walz also got the nod from Republican former Gov. Arne Carlson over the weekend, while GOP candidate Chip Cravaack picked up the endorsement of the Duluth paper.

The Star Tribune’s endorsement listed a good number of Clark’s accomplishments — but it took three paragraphs of complaints about Rep. Michele Bachmann’s performance in Congress before it got to them.

“Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has appeared at least eight times since January on Fox News’ Sean Hannity Show,” the paper said. “How many mayors or county commissioners in Bachmann’s Sixth District swath of central Minnesota have had an equal number of conversations with her this year?”

Walz got the nod from the Strib this weekend as well.

“Walz has been a stellar advocate for veterans, responsive to his region’s key employers and consistently earned high marks from local officials for his assistance on matters small and large, particularly the weather-related disasters that have hit this district,” wrote the paper’s editorial board. “He’s more than earned the right to represent this swath of southern Minnesota for another two years.”

Likewise, Walz got the support of former Gov. Carlson, who calls the Democratic incumbent “the clear choice” in the First Congressional District race.

“I’m continually impressed with Tim’s leadership and his ability to bring people together in southern Minnesota communities,” Carlson said. “It is clear that people identify with Tim’s experience as a teacher, veteran and football coach and I think that helps them lay aside partisan predispositions and join with Tim to solve problems.”

Carlson has already thrown his weight behind IP candidate Horner, who continued racking up endorsements. The Pioneer Press joined the Star Tribune, Forum Communications paper and ECM Publishers in backing his gubernatorial run.

Walz also got the endorsement of the Rochester Post-Bulletin and the Albert Lea Tribune last week.

Republican Chip Cravaack also scored an upset endorsement from the Duluth News Tribune, a paper that traditionally backs Rep. James Oberstar.

Oberstar cried foul on the paper, which skipped face-to-face meetings this year in exchange for a raucous debate. TheUpTake caught up with him this weekend:

The Duluth News Tribune, however, disputed Oberstar’s criticisms: