Full historical analysis in pictures”

The nomination of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate is perhaps the most bizarre thing I’ve witnessed since moving to Alaska six years ago, arguably surpassing the time a bald eagle dropped a flounder into my hot tub. Judging by the e-mails I received on Friday — half of which were some variation of “Who the f*** is Sarah Palin?” — almost no one outside this state knows who the f*** Sarah Palin is. Here’s a quick primer.

Her political career began ran in tiny Wasilla, where she defeated a three-term incumbent in a tough mayoral race that attracted hundreds of voters. According to legend, Palin campaigned aggressively and enthusiastically, knocking on every door in the city and writing personal letters to locals who’d actually bothered to show up at the polls in the previous four years. In office, Palin quickly began distributing a stable of severed equine heads to rivals and suspected foes. She slashed the city’s budget and fired a host of subordinates — the head librarian and the chief of police, most notoriously — while asking for the resignations of her entire court of managers to test their “loyalty” to a 32-year-old mayor. Arguing that the city’s $4 million surplus revenue would be best spent on roads and sewers, Palin hacked the appropriation for the Wasilla city museum, driving three septuagenarian curators into disgruntled retirement. When Palin proposed halving the city’s property tax assessment, one city council member — in a parody of the mayor’s small-government evangelism — proposed simply getting rid of it altogether.

So went her first ten months in office. Though Palin’s abrasive decisions sparked widespread grumbling, a move to recall her was bridled and a lawsuit by the fired police chief went nowhere. Palin survived a rocky initiation, and in 1999 more than 800 appreciative citizens bore her triumphantly aloft to a second term. From there, she moved on to a state resource commission and into the perennial rumor mill of potential gubernatorial and senatorial runs. When the flagrant ass-peddling that’s long defined Alaska’s Republican party finally backfired in 2006, Palin vaulted to the governor’s mansion, promising to reduce corruption and draw more hydrocarbons from the soil.

In most ways, Palin has been a vast improvement over her predecessor, Frank Murkowski, a world-renowned dope who managed to aggravate every possible constituency while presiding over a vast ocean of corruption during his single term in office. She approved a bill that squeezed oil producers for more revenue, and she called out fellow Republicans, including the party’s own state chairman, for their pliable ethics. Along these lines, Palin’s work has been commendable, though it bears noting that after corruption indictments had been laid against nearly a dozen public officials, lobbyists and corporate executives, legislative inertia was not difficult to overcome. “Troopergate” — which I suspect is going to turn out very badly for Palin — takes the shine off Palin’s image as a reformer. As with her approach to the mayor’s office a decade earlier, Palin has established a pattern of using public office to settle private scores and to retaliate against subordinates who have been deemed insufficiently helpful.

More substantively, Palin’s vaunted record as a budget-trimming “maverick” and a principled opponent of federal pork is also overstated. She has never opposed federal earmarks on principle, even for the patently absurd Gravina Island bridge (“to nowhere”). And while she hacked $270 million from this year’s budget, the “principles” she deployed were inconsistent and provincial. She left most projects in her home region of the Matanuska-Susitna Valley untouched (though she dismantled a funding proposal for a recycling center). And she allowed the state to fund an “academic based” conference to highlight the state’s unique argument that shrinking polar ice doesn’t threaten polar bear habitats. It’s true that she eliminated funding for a zamboni blade-sharpener — a budget item that was to state political snark what the “Bridge to Nowhere” was for the rest of the country — but to describe Palin as “anti-pork” requires that we overlook the basic point that for most people, “pork” is merely synonymous with “projects I don’t like.”

Since her nomination last week, other aspects of Palin’s conservative ideology received lots of exposure. She is fanatically anti-choice, a stance that the birth of her fifth child — and her own teenage daughter’s pregnancy — will only underscore as McCain rallies social conservatives to the tent. Her religious mentors in Alaska are genuine End-of-Days lunatics, and Palin has offered modest endorsement for the view that creationist superstition should be granted equal time in high school science classes. In keeping with her administration’s cautious approach to governing, though, Palin has not forwarded any legislation on these or any other issues. And while she personally opposes domestic partner benefits for same-sex couples, Palin vetoed a plainly unconstitutional bill that would have denied those benefits to state workers. These traits could be as effective a combination for McCain’s candidacy as they’ve been for Palin in Alaska. Social conservatives will recognize her as one of their own, while moderates may not be inclined to view her as a dangerous ideologue.

As a vice presidential candidate, though, Palin could be disastrous. She’s not a policy wonk, and she’s incapable of holding a press conference without a coral reef of staffers to feed her answers. Though amiable and charming in debates, she is staggeringly uninformed on most issues of national significance, and voters would do well to wonder how the erstwhile Mayor of Wasilla would manage the American imperium when President McCain strokes out over a third-tier international crisis.

More ominously for Palin, she’s made a tremendous number of enemies during her rise to power, folks who have remained more or less quiet about the less savory aspects of Palin’s professional and personal life. Given the McCain campaign’s apparent failure to thoroughly research Palin’s past, I would not be surprised to see some highly public score-settling over the next few weeks.

David Noon is a professor of history at the University of Alaska Southeast in Juneau, the author of the great, sort-of-on-hiatus Axis of Evel Knievel blog, and a contributor to Lawyers, Guns and Money.

“Her infant child, born in April, we are told by the campaign, with Down’s Syndrome. This [is] a very strong appeal to the pro-life community, having carried this child to term.”

Just curious: Did the campaign also point out the baby’s usefulness to John McCain, or is this Andrea Mitchell’s own tasteful extrapolation? Does this seem grotesque to anyone else?

The AP says the McCain camp “hopes the announcement of his running mate will stunt any momentum that Democratic rival Barack Obama might get from the just concluded Democratic National Convention.” If it really is Palin, I’m afraid the opposite will happen. Press reaction will be 100% negative; the emphasis will all be on Palin’s inexperience–she’s been Governor of Alaska for less than two years–and the fallout will augment, not limit, Obama’s convention bounce. The most important thing McCain has going for him in this race is the perception that he is the serious candidate. Choosing a running mate who will be widely perceived as unqualified would go a long way toward squandering that advantage.

Just posted, and not confirmed: “Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a self-styled ‘hockey mom’ who has only been governor for a little over a year, is GOP Presidential candidate John McCain’s choice for Vice President, CNBC has learned. According to a Republican strategist, Palin is the nominee, though McCain’s campaign has not comfirmed this.”

UPDATE: Longtime GOP speechwriter and strategist Pat Buchanan, speaking a moment ago on MSNBC, called the selection “the biggest gamble in American political history.”

OMG: Lieberman?

TalkLeft is reporting that NBC says Joe Lieberman is in Dayton, Ohio, where John McCain is expected to introduce his running mate later this morning.

Politico’s Jonathan Martin says that Mitt Romney, like Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, will not be in Dayton today.

There’s heavy speculation this morning about Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (check this piece by the AP’s Liz Sidoti), thanks in part to a pair of posts from the Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder [1] [2], but ABC reports that Palin’s press secretary claims the governor will be attending the Alaska state fair today.

More from the political wire about John McCain’s impending VP pick:

David Drucker, Roll Call: “If security sweeps are the giveaway, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney may be on the brink of being selected as Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) vice presidential running mate. According to sources with strong Michigan ties, the Secret Service has conducted a security sweep of the home of Romney’s sister. Romney was raised in Michigan, where his father served as governor.”

Gary Miller, Truth v. the Machine: [writing about a Pawlenty bloggers' conference call earlier today] “The Governor had some generic opening statements about Senator McCain’s experience and values over Sen. Obama — the usual boilerplate. An observation: Pawlenty seemed quite tired and his voice was just a bit raspy (A bit subdued? Down?).

Q: Do you plan on staying in Eagan tonight?

A: I am scheduled to fly back late afternoon and I am staying, I believe, at the Governor’s residence. Doesn’t plan on staying in Eagan because of possible conflict with the kids schedule.

Q: Any chance you will be flying to Sedona, AZ?

A: I am scheduled to be in Minnesota.

Q: Will you be in Ohio tomorrow?

A: I am scheduled to be in Minneapolis tomorrow and through the weekend. My sense is Senator McCain and the McCain campaign are close to making a decision.

Liz Sidoti, Associated Press: “Inside GOP circles Thursday, though, speculation swirled around Lieberman. It was fueled by reports that McCain’s advisers had asked for additional detailed information from Lieberman, by McCain’s close friendship with the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee, and by word that Republican operatives had been told to prepare for the possibility of an “unconventional” choice. Lieberman supports the Iraq war but breaks with Republicans on most issues, notably abortion rights.”

WashPost The Trail blog: “One senior Republican who has talked personally with Romney, Ridge and Pawlenty during the past two days said none of them had been told yet by McCain. ‘All of them believe that it’s not them,’ the GOP source said.”

Jonathan Martin, Politico: “Republican strategist Karl Rove called Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) late last week and urged him to contact John McCain to withdraw his name from vice presidential consideration, according to three sources familiar with the conversation. Lieberman dismissed the request, these sources agreed. ‘Rove called Lieberman,’ recounted a second source. ‘Lieberman told him he would not make that call.’”

Chris Cilizza, The Fix: 1. Tim Pawlenty: So it was in the beginning, so shall it be in the end. T-Paw sat atop our first Veepstakes Line and he claims the pole position in our last Line as well. Pawlenty has been the tortoise in this race — never really emerging as the buzz candidate but never falling too far off the lead pack either. His combination of Midwestern roots, conservative credentials (particularly on the abortion issue) and a longtime friendship with McCain make him the safest choice available. And, in an election that could well be decided (again) by a few percentage points, the “do no harm” pick seems to make the most sense for McCain. Is Pawlenty ready for such a big stage? Real doubts remain. (Previous ranking: 1)

Drudge: SOURCE: NAME MAY LEAK AT 6 PM ET… WITH SOME SORT OF CONFIRMATION AT 8 PM… DEVELOPING…

The GOP bloggers are all atwitter: “I just got off the phone with Andy Barnett, who informs me that he just recently spoke with Pawlenty Press Secretary, Alex Carey. While Mr. Carey did not actually state that Pawlenty was the choice, there was excitement in his voice, and he did state that Governor Pawlenty “cleared his schedule” for the weekend.”

We’ll keep you posted…

Politico’s Mike Allen reported this morning that McCain has made his VP pick and will notify that person today in advance of tomorrow’s planned rollout rallies in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The short list is thought to include longtime veep frontrunners Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty along with a few, possibly token, mentions of possible female candidates like Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman.

But the hottest, and oddest, rumor in the days leading up to the announcement has stemmed from persistent leaks about how badly McCain himself wants to select the hawkish former Democrat Joe Lieberman, a man who bears a giant scarlet “A” on his chest in the eyes of the Republican Party’s anti-abortion-rights Christian base. Today the Washington Post reports:

“You keep hearing that he really wants Lieberman,” said a Republican source who talks frequently with McCain’s advisers. The source added that McCain “can be stubborn.”

Another senior GOP adviser said picking Lieberman would be a way to say that McCain is a “transformational politician,” but it was unlikely that the benefit of that would offset the angst it would cause among party conservatives.

Republican antiabortion forces have made it known that the outrage that would be felt at next week’s party convention over a Lieberman selection would dwarf any disunity on display at the Democratic gathering in Denver.

CBS adds: “Sources close to the McCain campaign have indicated that Lieberman, an independent Democrat, is very much in the running.”

If it were anyone but McCain in the driver’s seat, the chances of an upside-down political maneuver like this would be practically nil; it discards the entire electoral calculus of the Reagan-Bush era Republican Party. But remember, as WashPost’s anonymous source puts it, that McCain “can be stubborn.” And by stubborn, they mean capricious and politically stupid.

So let’s just call a Lieberman pick unlikely. And given that Romney would also polarize a substantial segment of voters against the ticket, I’m guessing Pawlenty will be the man behind the curtain tomorrow. Today, notes the AP, Pawlenty is “scheduled to play attack dog in Denver.”

Novak: “Reports of strong support within John McCain’s presidential campaign for Independent Democratic Sen. Joseph Lieberman as the Republican candidate for vice president are not a fairy tale. Influential McCain backers, plus McCain himself, would pick the pro-choice liberal from Connecticut if they thought they could get away with it.”

Novak goes on to say that some of Tailgunner Joe’s GOP pals finally had to prevail upon him to convince McCain the idea would bomb with the party’s anti-abortion rights base.

Update: On Thursday, the Lieberman buzz persists. New item here.